National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

I believe Blacks and Hispanics have significantly lower cut offs and a whole lot more scholarship opportunities compared to other minorities and majorities. I won’t be surprised if government came up with a higher cut off requirement for Asians to make merit scholarships even more diverse.

@mnpapa29, when the state summary reports come out, we can tell if missing only 2 questions eliminates people in the high cut off states. The lowest SI possible with 2 wrong would be a 224.

If you look at DC’s 2014 report, they had 79, 83 and 123 students in the 75-80 score point range for the 3 subjects. With only 57 SF slots awarded to DC, it was clear that cutoff would be high.

We can do similar analysis when the 2015 reports are available. I’m hoping they break down the 3 subjects by 2 point intervals, 37-38, 35-36, etc.

How many slots are there for Texas?

Texas last year had 1353 SF and 3311 commended.

Are there any real benefits of commended status?

Here is each states total
2014 Commended Semi
State Entrants Students Finalist
Alabama 12,278 182 227
Alaska 2,196 29 39
Arizona 20,914 421 318
Arkansas 6,685 32 149
California 176,879 6,644 2,027
Colorado 19,033 491 248
Connecticut 31,268 802 178
Delaware 6,806 115 47
District of Columbia 4,100 228 57
Florida 66,705 1,253 777
Georgia 36,244 1,012 453
Hawaii 6,650 101 68
Idaho 7,654 86 80
Illinois 37,718 1,419 699
Indiana 33,312 607 321
Iowa 8,239 158 176
Kansas 9,254 286 154
Kentucky 10,910 192 209
Louisiana 11,604 134 207
Maine 10,219 116 78
Maryland 43,907 1,447 318
Massachusetts 47,972 1,822 328
Michigan 27,283 467 588
Minnesota 19,376 608 310
Mississippi 5,841 44 136
Missouri 13,069 399 328
Montana 4,267 25 51
Nebraska 5,812 78 98
Nevada 8,181 88 93
New Hampshire 8,033 158 71
New Jersey 65,937 2,479 540
New Mexico 7,155 63 84
New York 142,574 2,730 1,012
North Carolina 42,040 798 448
North Dakota 1,842 5 35
Ohio 47,724 1,040 618
Oklahoma 8,010 149 173
Oregon 15,433 448 194
Pennsylvania 69,436 1,522 656
Rhode Island 5,707 88 56
South Carolina 17,512 184 194
South Dakota 2,264 17 41
Tennessee 16,004 412 323
Texas 199,383 3,311 1,353
Utah 5,619 93 151
Vermont 3,787 102 42
Virginia 47,825 1,578 390
Washington 33,341 996 317
West Virginia 3,596 0 88
Wisconsin 17,080 282 348
Wyoming 1,241 1 26
Other 20,851 1,206 305
TOTAL 1,476,770 36,948 16,227

Columns are: state, entrants, commended, SF

@Speedy2019 …now we need to add the cutoffs for last year to this chart of States…what do you think?

@Speedy2019 thanks for info. Can you send me the link for the stats?

Columns are state, entrants, commended, SF, SF % of state, SF % of Total, 2014 cutoff
Alabama 12,278 182 227 1.85% 1.40% 209
Alaska 2,196 29 39 1.78% 0.24% 206
Arizona 20,914 421 318 1.52% 1.96% 215
Arkansas 6,685 32 149 2.23% 0.92% 204
California 176,879 6,644 2,027 1.15% 12.49% 223
Colorado 19,033 491 248 1.30% 1.53% 215
Connecticut 31,268 802 178 0.57% 1.10% 220
Delaware 6,806 115 47 0.69% 0.29% 216
District of Columbia 4,100 228 57 1.39% 0.35% 225
Florida 66,705 1,253 777 1.16% 4.79% 214
Georgia 36,244 1,012 453 1.25% 2.79% 218
Hawaii 6,650 101 68 1.02% 0.42% 214
Idaho 7,654 86 80 1.05% 0.49% 208
Illinois 37,718 1,419 699 1.85% 4.31% 215
Indiana 33,312 607 321 0.96% 1.98% 213
Iowa 8,239 158 176 2.14% 1.08% 208
Kansas 9,254 286 154 1.66% 0.95% 213
Kentucky 10,910 192 209 1.92% 1.29% 210
Louisiana 11,604 134 207 1.78% 1.28% 211
Maine 10,219 116 78 0.76% 0.48% 211
Maryland 43,907 1,447 318 0.72% 1.96% 222
Massachusetts 47,972 1,822 328 0.68% 2.02% 223
Michigan 27,283 467 588 2.16% 3.62% 210
Minnesota 19,376 608 310 1.60% 1.91% 214
Mississippi 5,841 44 136 2.33% 0.84% 209
Missouri 13,069 399 328 2.51% 2.02% 209
Montana 4,267 25 51 1.20% 0.31% 204
Nebraska 5,812 78 98 1.69% 0.60% 209
Nevada 8,181 88 93 1.14% 0.57% 211
New Hampshire 8,033 158 71 0.88% 0.44% 213
New Jersey 65,937 2,479 540 0.82% 3.33% 225
New Mexico 7,155 63 84 1.17% 0.52% 208
New York 142,574 2,730 1,012 0.71% 6.24% 219
North Carolina 42,040 798 448 1.07% 2.76% 215
North Dakota 1,842 5 35 1.90% 0.22% 202
Ohio 47,724 1,040 618 1.29% 3.81% 215
Oklahoma 8,010 149 173 2.16% 1.07% 208
Oregon 15,433 448 194 1.26% 1.20% 215
Pennsylvania 69,436 1,522 656 0.94% 4.04% 217
Rhode Island 5,707 88 56 0.98% 0.35% 212
South Carolina 17,512 184 194 1.11% 1.20% 211
South Dakota 2,264 17 41 1.81% 0.25% 202
Tennessee 16,004 412 323 2.02% 1.99% 212
Texas 199,383 3,311 1,353 0.68% 8.34% 220
Utah 5,619 93 151 2.69% 0.93% 206
Vermont 3,787 102 42 1.11% 0.26% 214
Virginia 47,825 1,578 390 0.82% 2.40% 222
Washington 33,341 996 317 0.95% 1.95% 219
West Virginia 3,596 0 88 2.45% 0.54% 202
Wisconsin 17,080 282 348 2.04% 2.14% 208
Wyoming 1,241 1 26 2.10% 0.16% 202
Other 20,851 1,206 305 1.46% 1.88%

TOTAL 1,476,770 36,948 16,227 1.10%

source: page 29 of this file: http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf

@Speedy2019 …great job. Thank you so much.

@SLparent my ds is in Virginia SI of 224 total 1500 - missed three total

I’ll add in a 2015 cutoff prediction column when the state reports are out. I’d like to reach a consensus from people on CC for that last column. Maybe a range of a couple of points. The state reports should be hard numbers. If the numbers support high cutoffs or low cutoffs, so be it. We can have a CC prediction.

@SLparent …do we know how many students too the PSAT in 2015?

Which state would you have best chance at SF? Utah followed by Missouri.
Utah - 2.69% of entrants became SF
Missouri. 2.51% of entrants became SF.

I can’t recall exact numbers but it was something like 1.7 million so so.

@speedy2019…when do the state reports come out? I see GA and FL GC are already sending out stuff and us Texans have nothing yet.

None of the state reports have come out yet. The GA, FL numbers are coming from schools, not from CB.

CB will release their reports here: http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr

Previous years reports are located there as well.

Maybe in February?

The totals show 53,175 were commended or SF. They definitely can go above 16,000 and 50,000 targets.

They won’t have an SI get split in the middle where some make it and others don’t.