National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

What I wonder about the relationship between Common Core and new-PSAT scores isn’t so much whether the four non-adopting states have lower scores, but whether there’s a correlation between when Common Core-adopting states joined in and new-PSAT scores for the current crop of juniors. If there’s a relationship where earlier-adopting states generally scored higher than late-adopting states, there may well be a there there.

Slightly More than 500 had perfect SI score last year, someone posted.

@dfbdfb – I don’t think there is such a study yet - no real reported PSAT data to compare. Maybe in a year or so.

@SLparent 4 scores in MA: 1480 220, 209, 224 (TS unknown), 1510 (SI unknown) - all from a school with about 6 NMSF per year.

I really think that we will see cutoff scores for each state that are within 2-4 points of the historical cutoffs. If I were a College Board executive, I would try to “reverse engineer” the cutoffs (as other posters suggested) so that they are similar to what they have been in the past… they have to know that this would cause a lot less confusion and prevent people from getting upset. The data that @SLparent gathered seems consistent with this to me… looks like cutoffs could be fairly similar to before, but perhaps squished down a bit at least at the high end.

@Tgirlfriend thanks! I’ll add it to the list for next time

@destined4harvard thanks! will correct next time!

@SLparent this is fantastic data! Thanks for providing this list of SI’s.

Perfect SI on PSAT is scored by less then 100, five times higher score perfect on SAT so around 500.

@dfbdfb I think the conversion of curriculum to Common Core has been a gradual process even in the states that adopted Common Core early. Mass-published textbooks that are authentically Common Core have not been available until this year. California did a review of math textbooks a couple years ago, and found that none of the textbooks with the “Common Core” label met their requirements. There are finally some fairly good textbooks available now.

Probably a more significant question would be how close was the state’s prior curriculum to Common Core. Some states had to accelerate their math sequence (think AL and Miss), while others had to slow it down (CA and Mass) and probably have more time to spend on the word problem and reading emphasis in math.

NY and GA came up with their own curricula for CC math that have been used as open source texts by elementary schools in our area, so I would think that NY and GA probably have a jump on implementation.

Note that kids who have been doing Common Core for maybe 2 years as juniors did not do Common Core from K-9. Also, consider that Common Core math only goes up to Algebra II. Precalc and calculus are still the same old math. And, juniors may be taking AP English Language, which has not been changed.

Our elementary schools do not feel that the Common Core changes to English are as big a change as the Common Core changes to math. Sure, they need to add the close reading and academic language parts and add more reading of non-fiction, but those are not as significant as changes to the entire scope and sequence of math. English will continue to be a challenge for English Learners and low-income kids and less of a challenge to kids who read a lot for fun, just as it was before Common Core.

@SLparent – thanks so much for the data!!! It is really helpful and kind of you to produce for us.

@Mamelot @CA1543 You’re welcome :slight_smile: If y’all know of scores, please shout out so I can add to the list.

210 OH only know of one other score at Ds school - 190

@hcmom65 Nearly every Utah college/university has merit scholarship matrix. The ACT or SAT combine with the GPA to give you an index number, and the index number determines the scholarship. If you have higher test scores, you have more wiggle room on GPA. More selective schools have harder requirements. But it simplifies things to know in advance that you can look at the matrix and know what the student will get. This is school specific but easily searchable online, and I am sure our schools aren’t the only ones that do that. But with a 36 ACT, your kid has excellent opportunities ahead!

Just talked to my DD’s high school principal about the 2015 PSAT scores. Mr. Principal said he had heard from other high school principals and GCs in our area that there are so many students with scores in the 99 percentiles this year. Our school has several in the 99% and we didn’t have any NMSF in the last two years, and only 1 NMSF three years ago. We are from GA.

@PrimeNumber2 …did you have a lot in the 99+ percentile? I think that is where the NMSF cutoff will be.

@PrimeNumber2, please clarify “so many … in the 99 percentile”. Are you referring to 99% Selection Index, 99% National, or 99% User?

From earlier data on this site, the National is inflated by about 5% on average over User. National is useless. Ignore it.

User and SI are the meaningful numbers.

I’m telling ya, there are students out there who only missed two questions on the entire PSAT who won’t make the cut. I suspect that I’ll actually be able to hear the gnashing of teeth coming from the high cutoff states.

I don’t mean to start a conspiracy theory. But, for those of you with older kids who were NMSF, did you get emails and invitations from colleges that offer scholarships for NMSF. My kids have received “special” invitations from two schools that I know offer scholarships. One even references National Scholar in the email. Is National Scholar considered the same thing as National Hispanic Recognition??? My kids did NOT mark that they are Hispanic because they are not. So, unless the school is thinking that they scored high and maybe they are Hispanic??? Because typically there are lower cutoff scores for that.

It would be kind of cruel to invite a kid saying Hey you are on track to be a National Scholar and then whoops. It almost seems like you would send it to kids that are very very likely to make it. But of course, I could be wrong.