@micgeaux
where did you find the table showing 690 is in the last 99th percentile?
@jrkick64 You are very close⊠so close that you will need to wait 8 months to find out for sure. If you were is West Virginia, I would put your odds at 100% 
@ payn4ward
Thanks⊠is this info on the college board website because I canât find it. Do the percentiles change from 1 test to another?
@SLparent That table was built by CC users posting their results
Does anyone know an approximate cutoff for international students?
@samc24 Are you a US citizen? The NMSC program is only for US citizens. If so, I think the international program is typically more selective that most states.
Will a 1470, 221 SI make semifinalist in CALIFORNIA (CA)?
Will a 219 SI make it in CA?
What will cutoff be in DC?
Score: 1450
Selection Index: 216
State: GA
Last Yearâs State Cutoff: 218
Help, will I make it???
@8o6pearyâs chart here: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19161554/#Comment_19161554
is very helpful: Just wonder if the SIâs are for each âuserâ :Your PSAT/NMSQT User Percentile - National
and NOT: Nationally Representative Sample Percentile
Also - this linked report someone above posted is useful: http://www.bernardsboe.com/UserFiles/Servers/Server_3096886/File/Jill Shadis/Ridge Counseling/Standardized Testing/Understanding 2014 PSAT-NMSQT Scores.pdf
It shows in 2014 the lowest 99%ile was 213 - so it seems, based on the various state cut-offs in 2014 and SIâs being reported for October 2015 PSAT as in 99%ile now (a âUserâ SI of 200 is 99%ile (really?)), then the State cut-offs should come down in most cases by as least several points (though there might not be across the board the same amount of drop in SI cut-offs). Some statesâ cutt-offs are somewhere above or below the 99%ile but knowing where the 99th%ile starts should help us gauge how it correlates to the stateâs old cut off (NY for example, has been a cut-off of 218/219 (6 SI points up from the lowest that was 99%ile)- so looks like anywhere from possibly as low as 207 (though I think the cut-off will be higher - perhaps 213-214?) should be NM Semi.in NY) Does this make sense?
Your chart:
340, 203, 98th Percentile
1360, 198, 98th Percentile
1370, 200, 99th Percentile
1370, 209, 99th Percentile
1380, 206, 99th Percentile
1390, 207, 99th percentile
1390, 209, 99th percentile
1400, 206, 99th Percentile
1400, 210, 99th Percentile
1410, 208, 99th Percentile
1420, 210, 99th Percentile (*in 2014 - a 212 was 98%tile - see linked report above)
1440, 214, 99th Percentile
1440, 216, 99th Percentile
1450, 217, 99th Percentile
1470, 219, 99th Percentile
1470, 220, 99th Percentile
1470, 221, 99th Percentile
1480, 221, 99th Percentile
1480, 222, 99th Percentile
1500, 225, 99th Percentile
1520, 228, 99th Percentile
1520, 228, 99th Percentile
@jerzmaster @micgeaux Thanks for the supportive words. We know she did very well and have tried to tell her that. She had high expectations of herself and with an older sibling who was NMF, itâs hard. She knows what NMF $$ mean. And, honestly, sheâs a stronger student than her sister.
And we live in MarylandâŠhigh-scoring state.
@aron, "Has anyone had discussions with college admissions officers as to how they will be assessing and handling PSAT scores for the class of 2017? " Donât bother. They donât âassess or handleâ PSAT scores. Admissions officers donât care about the PSAT. PSAT scores are not reported to colleges and there is no place even to self-report them on the common app. In all the college admissions sessions I attended for first kid, the PSAT was never mentioned.
@Jay12321, not sure what to make of this. I would expect your percentile ranking to be lower on last yearâs test but not that much lower.
Does the college board define somewhere which populations they are comparing in the two percentiles they give?
Thank you! Iâll be waiting nervously
SI
SI 223
1480
38 reading
37 writing
36.5 math
Sorry if Iâve missed this in another thread somewhere, but is there any reason why a student canât just go to the concordance tables that have been released, look at their section scores and pick the lowest possible concordance to last yearâs test, add the two scores (reading and math) together, and have a really good conservative estimate of what their Selection Index score for last year would have been? So, my boys got a 740 âERWâ and a 750 Math. Looking at the more finely tuned section-to-section concordance that shows 2014 to 2015 would suggest that the lowest possible concordance of a 740 ERW would have been 149 CR+W and the lowest concordance for a 750 Math would have been a 77 in 2014. 149+77=226 - last yearâs NMS Selection Index. This is slightly conservative because if you did the same procedure using the 2015-2014 tables that arenât as fine grained youâd end up with a 227. (Also sorry to be a bit obsessive about this with scores as high as these, but we live in DC where the score required last year was 225. <dang pickinâ="" md="" &="" va="" interlopers!="">)
@candjsdad Yes, I think the concordance tables will give you a very conservative guess. The problems with the concordance tables are that they convert the scaled score (0-1520) to a selection index. For NMSC, it would be better to convert this yearâs NMSC selection index to previous years. Also, the tables look off. Students scoring 1380 this year are reporting they are in the 99th percentile. This would be a 202 on last yearâs SI, which I donât think was near the 99th percentile nationally. So I think using the concordance tables will discourage many students who actually have a good chance to be commended on semifinalists.
@candjsdad I think page 3 of the concordance tables will give you the best answer until the non-preliminary concordance tables are released. Using just the minimum will give you a conservative estimate. You can figure the range from min to max to have a more complete, but fuzzier, picture.
@jerzmaster The problem between the 99th percentile cutoffs and the concordance to last yearâs selection index is that for high-scoring states, NMSF is not the 99th percentile. It is 99.5 or even higher than that. If you are from Mississippi, go ahead and look at the 99th percentile. If you are from DC, MA, CA, etc, you have to score higher than that.