Thanks for the try @dallaspiano , but nope we don’t have any high quality prep here as evidenced by our school district with 3-5 NMF each year.
Play makers have to make the plays, not the coaches (yet coaching is important)
2014 SAT data
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2014.pdf
2015 SAT data
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2015.pdf
…#1……#2………#3………#4………#5…….#6………#7………#8………#9…
2310….99+.……7441.…99.55….99.54….7793….99.444….99.443….214
2300….99………8812….99.47….99.46….9203….99.392….99.379….213
2290….99……10334….99.38….99.38….10560…99.337….99.308….212
2280….99……11760….99.29….99.27….12117…99.277….99.231….211
2270….99……13463….99.19….99.18….13907…99.213….99.052….210
2260….99……15351….99.08….99.08….15651…99.143….98.949….209
Explanation columns
1: SAT Scores (old SAT)
2: 99% range
3: number of actual students at this scores and up in column 1 – SAT 2014
4: real percentage at the scores in column 1 – SAT 2014
5: real percentage at the scores in column 1 – SAT 2015
6: number of actual students at this scores and up in column 1 – SAT 2015
7: Percentiles calculated by using Mean and SD from SAT 2015
8: Percentiles calculated by using Mean and SD from PSAT 2015
9: SI provided by CB for PSAT 2015
Observation of column 4 and 5 – very similar real percentage
*the top ~16000 NMSF probably start at ~99.08 percentile
*the top ~16000 NMSF probably start at ~SI of 209 (for PSAT 2015)
*at lowest 99+, we usually have ~7600 NMSF qualifiers (estimate AVG)
* then rest ~7400 has to spread down to lower SIs (SI 214 is the lowest 99+)
**TX cut off probably starts at SI 210
Correction
“** then rest ~7400 has to spread down to lower SIs (SI 214 is the lowest 99+)”
Should be 8400 not 7400, since we will have ~16000 NMSF qualifiers, may go down 1 more (SI 208)
TX Cut off estimate
2012 there were 199,383 test takers, with 1353 NMSF qualifiers or top 0.678% of TX
2015 estimate 203,800 test takers but still 1353 NMSF qualifiers or top 0.586% (pop increase 1.022%)
TX Mean for 3 years (2012, 2013, 2014) is lower than National Mean average ~8.83 points
Estimate 2015 TX Mean will be 5 points lower than National (Mean 148) or at 143 (very conservative)
Using TX Mean 143 and SD 26, and top 0.586% then the result cut off is 208.53 or 209
@dallaspiano…I hope you are correct!!! I wish commended numbers would come out then we could at least get a feel for what the NMSF numbers would be. Ugh…
@Tgirlfriend,
Just do it for the love of guessing games based on certain data. Chance to be wrong 51%. Last year Commended is 202, but NMSF is 220
No Cobb, no TAMS, no St. Mark…no drama
@dallaspiano…but the chance of you being correct are 49% then. I just can’t see Texas being any higher than 220. Fingers…toes are crossed. September is a long ways away!! Thank goodness my S doesn’t have time to think about all this stuff. He is busy getting ready for UIL regionals and state.
Same here, get ready for UIL Tyler 4/24
@dallaspiano…you are going to be in our neck of the woods. What Class and Region? We are headed to Blinn 4/22.
it’s gona a long way for your S. My brother, Aggie. Been to College Station many times. Compete in Comp app and Number sense
We are going for Calculator…Number Sense…Math…for team and individuals. Next stop is Austin!!!
@dallaspiano thanks for your newest guess! That would be awesome, our D is at SI 209…
Did you see that commended numbers came out for hispanic nm in south? 204. I wonder what this means for scores…this seemed higher than i thought.
@kikidee9 what was the hispanic cutoff last year for commended? I think the commended cutoff MIGHT go up for the commended. I don’t see how the NMSF number could go up much more than they were last year. Maybe just more clustered together?
I believe it was actually the cut-off score for hispanic nm and not the commended.
I am not sure. I just hoped someone had more info…really hate waiting…
Someone just posted on the other 2015 PSAT thread that they called NMSQT and the commended cutoff this year is 209.
So were will that put Texas cutoff? 219 or higher?
@robincorn can you post the link to the thread? thanks