@SLparent, thank you so much. It is valuable to my analysis
Looking at your links, my initial feeling is so good. Look like my estimation in msg #177 is very close - in column Lower Mean and SD
2015 PSAT Mean 148, SD 26
TX had 1353 NMSFs and 199,383 qualified test taker (NM Annual Report 2013-2014)
Texas usually has lower Mean and lower SD than National’s (from TX state report 2010 to 2014)
…Cut off…Cut off
TX Mean…TX SI (at SD 26)…TX(at SD 25.5)
…147…211.186…209.95
…146…210.186…208.95
…145…209.186…207.95
…144…211.186…206.95
Update msg # 181. Typo last line 144 and 211.186, should be 144 and 208.186. See below
2015 PSAT Mean 148, SD 26
TX had 1353 NMSFs and 199,383 qualified test taker (NM Annual Report 2013-2014)
Texas usually has lower Mean and lower SD than National’s (from TX state report 2010 to 2014)
…Cut off…Cut off
TX Mean…TX SI (at SD 26)…TX(at SD 25.5)
…147…211.186…209.95
…146…210.186…208.95
…145…209.186…207.95
…144…208.186…206.95
@dallaspiano How do you figure the SD? I guess for the mean we can get from the state reports right? Do you just add the means of the 3 subjects to get 1 total mean?
Yes for past PSATs, Mean add all 3 for National, SD by extrapolation 3 ranges. But Mean for state, you got to tweak with SI versus state pop, then estimate for current SI (not exact 100%, IMO very close). SD changes but not that much
2015 PSAT Mean 987, SD 174 (in TS)
TX had 1353 NMSFs and 199,383 qualified test taker (NM Annual Report 2013-2014)
Texas usually has lower Mean and lower SD than National’s (from TX state report 2010 to 2014)
SD changes but not that much
…Cut off…Cut off
TX Mean…TX TS (at SD 174)…TX TS(at SD 172)
…987…1416.56…1411.62
…985…1414.56…1409.62
…983…1412.56…1407.62
…981…1410.56…1405.62
Combine views
**
2015 PSAT Mean 148, SD 26
TX had 1353 NMSFs and 199,383 qualified test takers (NM Annual Report 2013-2014)
Texas usually has lower Mean and lower SD than National’s (from TX state report 2010 to 2014)
…Cut off…Cut off
TX Mean…TX SI (at SD 26)…TX(at SD 25.5)
…147…211.186…209.95
…146…210.186…208.95
…145…209.186…207.95
…144…208.186…206.95
**
2015 PSAT Mean 987, SD 174 (in TS)
TX had 1353 NMSFs and 199,383 qualified test takers (NM Annual Report 2013-2014)
Texas usually has lower Mean and lower SD than National’s (from TX state report 2010 to 2014)
SD changes but not that much
…Cut off…Cut off
TX Mean…TX TS (at SD 174)…TX TS(at SD 172)
…987…1416.56…1411.62
…985…1414.56…1409.62
…983…1412.56…1407.62
…981…1410.56…1405.62
TS… …P(X>x)… NMSF…… SI
1440………………………………0.00461… 7950… 215.698
1430………………………………0.00545…… 9398… 214.193
1420………………………………0.00641…… 11054… 212.707
1410………………………………0.00753…… 12985… 211.204
1400………………………………0.00881…… 15192… 209.711
Based on 1,724,416 test takers and current 2015 PSAT data (Mean, SD)
To qualify, one must have
TS greater or equal 1400
AND
SI greater or equal 209
Update post #187,
Why SI(s) have to be greater or equal 209 but result is 209.711?
At exact SI 209 and up (with Mean 148, SD 26), we will have 16347 NMSFs qualifiers (based on NM Annual Report 2013-2014, we had 16227 NMSFs)
2015 PSAT data
T Score…SI Min…SI Max…% …%tile
1520…228…228 …99.86…99+
1510…226…227 …99.83…99+
1500…224…226 …99.81…99+
1490…222…225 …99.77…99+
1480…220…224 …99.73…99+
1470…218…223 …99.69…99+
1460…216…222 …99.64…99+
1450…214…221 …99.60…99+
1440…212…220 …99.54…99+
1430…210…219 …99.47…99
1420…208…218 …99.40…99
1410…206…217 …99.32…99
1400…204…216 …99.24…99
1390…202…214 …99.15…99
I thought I’d share these emails with you.
My question to morethanateacher.com
“I have a question about TX NMSF’s that you wrote in Sept 2015. You mentioned one needs to aim for 210 to qualify for that. Do you still believe that 210 is a good score? My daughter has 212 and we are hoping she made it.”
Their response “Thank you for your email. A 212 is a good score! Usually a National Merit cutoff score would be released in the spring. With the changes coming to the PSAT, it doesn’t look like any score cutoff information will be released from College Board until fall. Since NMSF cutoff has not been released yet, it’s difficult to project an exact number. We had projected around a 210 based on converting previous year’s cutoffs into the new scaling. I think the range will be somewhere between 209 and 219.
Has she taken any official SATs yet? Even though we have to wait until fall to find out about NMSF cutoff, she might know now if she is eligible for any other merit based aid from the colleges she’s going to be applying to.
I hope this information is helpful. Please let me know if there is anyway we can be of additional assistance.
All the best,”
My email again “Thank you Mary Jo for a quick reply. Any reason why you have such a wide range for nmsf cut off for tx (209-219)? I know the top score is now 228 so I was hoping it would be around 208-212 instead of 209-219. Have you seen a lot of scores above 212 that makes you think it could go to 219 for the cut off? I know testmasters predicted 219.
My daughter already took the old PSAT in oct & nov. Her scores were 2040 & 2150 respectively. The 2nd score was better in all 3 areas. She also took the act in feb & scored a 33. She wanted to get a better score for the reading section so she’s taking the April act & hopefully we’ll call it quits after that.”
Their response "With all of the uncertainly surrounding the redesign, we feel like the wide range is safer until more data is released. I read the testmaster’s blog predicting 219, and while that sounds high to me, it might be possible. I also read 206 on a different blog and that sounds low, based on the scores we’re seeing. We’ve already seen a handful of scores in the 215+ range. Without looking at all of the Texas scores, it’s impossible to say if that represents a great group of students from very competitive high schools or a shift to higher PSAT scores for Texas and a higher cutoff for NMSF. I wish we had more information to give, but unfortunately we are at the mercies of the College Board and waiting for them to release more data.
It looks like your daughter has some competitive scores already under her belt. I think your plan to have her retake the ACT one more time is a good one. Please let me know if we can help support her ongoing prep in anyway."
Just want to add that I’m a huge fan of More Than A Teacher’s classes!
@3scoutsmom Are they really good? I guess I’ve never heard of them until now
Yes! If you are in an area that they serve, sign up for their classes. If you sign up for PSAT you can retake the classes for free for SAT and they often add extra classes that are free too. All three of my kids have taken their classes. They give a discount for sibling and for signing up with a friend (which can be combined with the sibling discount). They only use College Board materials, not things they make up on their own. I do think they supplemented with some ACT material this year because there was so little official SAT material. You can take unlimited proctored practice tests and they have group tutoring afterward. I have gotten very personal attention when I have contacted them about specific concerns. They offer an extra class just for kids going for National Merit (again at no extra charge) and DS just took a special essay class for the redesigned SAT (again no extra charge) and their fee includes all material: Blue Book, note book, test booklets. Since the PSAT/SAT changed between the time my son first took their class and then retook their class they also provided him with all new materials including the new Blue Book at no additional fee.
It is a group class so kids are best served if they have the basic skill sets that the PSAT/SAT covers. They do offer private tutoring but that’s really only for kids that need remediation.
I wish we had anything similar to “More than a Teacher” :((
Hmmm…looks like MTAT has it’s fingers DEEP into the Austin/Westlake craziness! And we wonder why Texas has a high cutoff!
It sounds like an awesome awesome program though. Can’t say that I’m not a little jealous!
It’s deep in surrounding schools too. Some Austin schools like Bowie pay for the MTAT classes for their students.
Austin has MTAT
Houston has TestMasters
Dallas has KD
Everywhere has something
Please tell me what Lubbock has, we are so far away. I can’t find that type of high quality of test prep that Dallas, Houston and Austin have here. But our kids are still competing against kids that live in the large metro area. 