National Merit Cutoff Predictions for Class of 2017 for TEXAS

Test Preparation
21

@SammieB,

Thank you. Since I used old chart, 218 is sure in old SI.

I 've seen four estimates (by respectable test prep centers). They’re different from each other but I see nobody make a fuzz (at least from their Q&A sections).

Since test changes, nothing can say who is closer to estimate cutoff, which will be released by state of TX in September 2016. But at least I have same ideas as yours - TX cutt off would be about 218 or 219 max, based on old SI

22

I am using old post #2003 from link
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1849640-national-merit-cutoff-predictions-class-of-2017-p134.html

1 #2 #3 #4

240 99+
228 99+ 99+ 99+
227 99+ 99+ 99+
226 99+ 99+ 99+
225 99+ 99+ 99+
224 99+ 99+ 99+
223 99+ 99+ 99+
222 99 99+ 99+
221 99 99+ 99+
220 99 99+ 99+
219 99 99+ 99
218 99 99+ 99
217 99 99+ 99
216 99 99+ 99
215 99 99+ 99
214 99 99+ 99

4 Columns:

1- Scores

2- the SI% on the 2014 understanding your PSAT which uses the old definition A of percentile

3- the SI% on the 2015 understanding your PSAT on CB website which uses new def. B of percentile

4- My translation of Column 3 by changing the def. of percentile back to definition A

Analysis (based on SI 2015)

  • the original poster (@likestowrite) suggested the lowest 99+ associated with SI 220. I’ll go along
  • then some viewers agree that testmaster’s estimate for Texas 218. I’ll go along
  • CA and TX usually take 3598 (2045+1353) NMF every year or roughly 3830+NMSF.
  • so at the lowest 99+ (SI of 220) CA+TX should have at least 3100 students score at SI 220 and above (Testmaster CA cut off 222)
  • but based on data provided by @SLparents, I did not see any numbers supported 3100 with SI 220 and above
  • same reasons but based on data provided by @SLparents, I did not see any numbers supported 3830 with SI 218 and above

Sidekick:

  • some posters relied on testmaster’s estimate, and they seem to ignore the fact testmaster used past data to present their conclusion
  • but when some post their analysis based on previous years’ data, they squash it down … are they conflicting themselves?
  • I respect @LadyMeowMeow for her cool forward observation on CC viewers’ behaviors
  • I respect @likestowrite, @thshadow, @speedy2019 for their cool, calm attitudes and especially their best to knowledge analysis and their sincerities to resolve situations
  • I also admire @CA1543 for his fairness analysis and good-in-nature manners

Summary: I have not seen “explosion” number for CA+TX at SI 218 and above

23

Daughters school is hosting a PSAT “coffee talk” with parents tomorrow. I can’t attend. They always record the talks and post the videos to their web site. Video should be available online sometime next week. I’ll review and post if they say anything significant.

24

@speedy2019…that would be wonderful. Thank you so much.

25

@Speedy2019 - do you know a parent that is going? You should ask them to ask a question for you - e.g. “How many SI score are above 215” or whatever threshold you pick

26

Story continues from #21…

  • with SI of 220 - associated with lowest 99+%
  • usually at lowest 99+%tile, we usually have 7600+NMF (not NMSF, but if count 1000 more for NMSF - no big deal)
  • then CA+TX take a big piece of the pie - 3100 out of 7600 NMF @SI 220
  • then we will have 4500 NMF (with SI of 220 and above) spread to other 48 states … reasonable? 99.9% it is not

I am having a headache. Que sera sera
Conclusion: more headache

27

Update # of NMSF for California, posted by GMTplus7
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/1684991-interesting-demographic-glimpse-of-california-national-merit-semifinalists-p1.html

" 09-11-2014 at 1:32 pm in National Merit Scholarships
Since CA is the most populous state, I took a peek at the list of NMSF out of curiosity. Some interesting demographic observations for the California Class of 2015:
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/172418022/2015-National-Merit-Semifinalists-in-California"

Estimated # NMSF nationally: ~15,000

NMSF in California Class of 2015: 2,126 (14% of total)

28

Just pulled this off Testmaster questions.

“we’re making a new update tonight, and it suggests that the projected cutoff might even be slightly lower than what the actual cutoffs might be– specifically for Texas, we’re predicting a 219 as the cutoff.”

29

@Tgirlfriend – So they will increase from the cut off they had projected for Texas from 217 to 219?

30

@CA1543…I think that is what they meant. Scary scary!!!

He is telling everyone they got new numbers and there will be a new scale out next week now.

Some Michael guy with testmasters answered a bunch of questions today. Some of the questions were from back in January.

If you get a chance go read the questions and answers to see what you think.

31

I wonder what new data testmasters has gotten their hands on…

32

I see on Test Masters -

Jo says this:

“We recently obtained a substantial new pool of data points. We are crunching the numbers now, and we expect to release one final estimation in the next few days. I would recommend checking back soon for more information.”

AND

Bill says:
"February 3, 2016 at 11:51 am
Vijay,

A score of 219 puts you on the bubble, so to speak. You are at the very edge of what we expect the cutoff score to be in California. While these are only estimations, so you won’t know for sure until the cutoffs are announced in the fall, you should be proud of your accomplishment!"

33

Crazy if CA and Texas have the same cuts.

34

And at DS’s HS if the cut is really 219 they may only have 1 NMSF. Last year they had 3 and offered prep to increase numbers. DS’s 216 is in roughly the top 5 from what he’s heard.

35

Based on my analysis from post #21 and #25.
I hope TX will do well - Texan get smarter if TX cut off is up 1 (at 219),
CA+TX will take 3200 NMF (no NMSF) out of 7600+ (if 99+ start at 220)
I probably will see “explosion SI report” for TX, but right now nothing echoes to my sonar yet.
The sky is still clear, not hearing any thunder yet

36

Testmasters’ estimates on PSAT cutoff SI scores seem to be most persuasive. We should wait for their updates and see.

37

I’m interested in what new data they received. If 219 is TX cut-off, our school will also see our numbers go down despite efforts to increase number of NMSF (boot camps). I haven’t seen any anecdotes that would suggest a 219. Waiting…and hope they post update soon.

38

@itsgettingreal17 I doubt their update on TX will increase SI score to 219 for TX. Maybe 218. Low to mid scoring states might see their cutoff go higher or stay the same, while relatively high scoring states will see their cutoffs go down by 2 or 3 points. That’s my guess. For CA I would not be surprised at all to see 221 SI as the cutoff.

39

MIchael from Testmaster posted at 3:50PM

January 31, 2016 at 1:44 pm
Hey, I’m from Michigan and I received a 207. I was wondering if you think the sliding score, the estimates from the concordance table, or somewhere in between will be the most accurate. I’m really hoping for National Merit and I think I’m just riding the line.
Reply
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 3:50 pm
Hi Alex, we’re publishing another update later today, and based on that data, it looks like the concordance table estimate is much closer to what we should expect in August/September

40

From Testmasters website: “…we’re making a new update tonight, and it suggests that the projected cutoff might even be slightly lower than what the actual cutoffs might be– specifically for Texas, we’re predicting a 219 as the cutoff.”

What does that even mean?

The projected cutoff might even be slightly lower than the actual??? Does that mean the original projected cutoff?