MIchael from Testmaster posted at 6:11PM
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 6:11 pm
Hi, we’re planning on releasing an update in the next day or so, but the gist of that is our projected cutoffs seem to be in the ballpark
From testmasters website: “Hi DarDar, the percentile is a good estimate of the cutoffs, but remember that national merit is roughly the top half of the top 1 percent, so a 99th percentile would encompass roughly twice as many students as will be ultimately selected. We’re making an updated post later tonight that suggests that our esimates are in the right ballpark.”
This also doesn’t make sense, unless the percentile table on page 11 includes 3 million juniors (the phantom test takers and the actual test takers). It has never been the top half of the top 1 percent.
@micgaux regarding that 219 cut-off comment from Test Masters:
They seem pretty sure (based on their most recent comments) that their next set of estimates will be very close to the actual cut-offs announced in Sept. So what they are saying is that their updated # (a very good estimate for the actual) will be higher for TX then what they had projected on Jan. 8th or the sliding scale projections they had done prior. I think. :-?
@Mamelot I agree. But, unless they have access to ACTUAL data, than these are projections we have gone over ad nauseum in the other thread.
I think their projections will increase based on 1.) the new definition of what your percentile is (Definition A and Definition B) (in the other thread) and maybe 2.) 3 million students being included in the SI percentile table on page 11.
So, unless they have ACTUAL corroborating SI data, we have already beat this topic to death.
They seem to claim they have access to some data. That would obviously be quite useful.
I wonder if they’ll disclose what data they have, and/or how they reach their conclusions.
Also, in one of their comments they weren’t particularly complimentary about the Compass article.
Okay…We need to stalk the testmaster site for updated cutoffs!!!
As a true believer, I narrow down …
PSAT 2013 has 16 band slots in 99+% range and 10 band slots in 99% range
(http://phs.princetonk12.org/guidance/Spotlight/S03A7EC5E-03A7ECF9.1/understanding-psat-nmsqt-scores.pdf)
PSAT 2015 has 15 band slots in 99+% range and 09 band slots in 99% range
PSAT…99+…PSAT
2015…2013
228…99+…239-240
227…99+…238
226…99+…237
225…99+…236
224…99+…235
223…99+…234
222…99+…233
221…99+…232
220…99+…231
219…99+…230
218…99+…229
217…99+…228
216…99+…227
215…99+…226
214…99+…225
213…99…224
212…99…223
211…99…222
210…99…221
209…99…220
208…99…219
207…99…218
206…99…217
205…99…215-216
This is my question to Testmasters yesterday…
Is a 221 for Texas NMSF material?
Reply
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 6:12 pm
Hi, with a 221, we believe you have a very good chance at becoming NMSF for Texas
@SLparent, thank for the data
Based on 2014 PSAT state report
http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/2015/TX_15_05_02_01.pdf
We had 227,078 students taking PSAT, NMSC awarded 1353 NMF for TX.
So in order for the last 1353th to get awarded, that student has to be in 99.40%tile or top 0.6%
Does that mean TX students have to score with SI at 99.40%? Not likely, since TX has a history of lower cut off (even though it’s considered as one of the eight high cut off states).
So the last student in TX (to be at 1353th) can score at 99.29%tile to 99.32%tile (compare to CB SI table).
How do we transfer that to 2015 SI and 2015 Total Score? I just don’t know how.
This year we- TX - may have more NMF, but it would be somewhere around 1353
From the other world
"at 2:06 pm, Bill wrote, “We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile.”
I love this statement *** new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile***
I did not like Bill before, now he is my favorite, hope he won’t change himself tomorrow
Just verify, it is true that Bill said:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/#comment-126117
"Patrick says:
January 13, 2016 at 11:24 am
Do either of your estimate scales change, now that the College Board has released the SI percentiles and 205 is the lowest SI score in th 99th percentile?
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:06 pm
Patrick,
That’s a great question. We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile. That said, we will not be updating this table again, only providing a specific estimate for a specific state.
Hope this helps!"
My Ds HS (Austin area) averages 4-5 NMF. She got an SI 221. Emailed her GC to see how that compared to the rest of her class & her GC replied:
“I can’t say anything as a definite, but compared to her class and the PSAT Team she did exceptionally well. She has a good chance for National Merit”
Her HS offered a fall semester class period PSAT prep class to kids who scored high on their sophomore PSAT.
@TxMum2, be glad that you got that response as our twin DD’s GC when asked about their 219 (they got the same SI - one with a 1440 and the other with a 1460) that she couldn’t say anything, including whether Commended was likely (which is ridiculous), and to stay posted to learn more in the Fall.
teresa says:
February 4, 2016 at 3:56 pm
Is the Texas cutoff going to change any with the update?
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 5:01 pm
Teresa,
… Maybe. You’ll have to just wait and see!
Reply
2015 PSAT data
T Score…SI Min…SI Max…% …%tile
1520…228…228 …99.86…99+
1510…226…227 …99.83…99+
1500…224…226 …99.81…99+
1490…222…225 …99.77…99+
1480…220…224 …99.73…99+
1470…218…223 …99.69…99+
1460…216…222 …99.64…99+
1450…214…221 …99.60…99+
1440…212…220 …99.54…99+
1430…210…219 …99.47…99
1420…208…218 …99.40…99
1410…206…217 …99.32…99
1400…204…216 …99.24…99
1390…202…214 …99.15…99
I saw this tidbit from Texas - not sure if its already included to your analysis for Texas:
http://images.pcmac.org/Uploads/AlvordISD/AlvordISD/Sites/News/Documents/PSAT%20Test%20Results%20Press%20Release.pdf
@Speedy2019, your number 212 is very good.
Last night, I do some mapping (crunching some)
- If we have ~100+ perfect scorers (from previous PSATs), then TX cut off is around 212
- When I tried to get wilder, with 550+ perfect scorers (as in old SAT tests), then TX cut off is 209 or 209.5 (no 209.5?)
What is your number if we do not go too wild, let say we have ~300+ perfect scorers this year? Since I have no data to back up
@Speedy2019,
agree 100% of 201 NM commended (based on what Bill said, can we trust the old Bill?)
agree 92% of 212 NMSF (since my # fluctuates from 211.75 to 212.42)
Too much for me 
Like it so much with post #2667