@dallaspiano…I agree 100%. Good Luck on your future plans.
Lucky number 99.54 finally found.
In previous analysis, I used data from PSATs and SATs (sometime up to 2006)
With @4getit 's suggestion of careful when using data from prior years, I use the current data (Mean 987 and SD 174 from 2015 PSAT) to calculate the percentiles
At TS of 1440 - lowest 99+, I have 99.54
At TS of 1390 - lowest 99, I have 98.96 or 99
Both match with previous data from prior years
TS…Percentile
1440…99.54…for sure at 99+ lowest
1430…99.46
1420…99.36
1410…99.25
1400…99.12
1390…98.96… or 99
Why 99.54 is important? From previous years, at 99.54 we have 7600+ qualified NMF, so the rest 7400
will dip down to 99% range
Thank you @4getit
PS: This post is similar to msg #67 and it is presented with current 2015 PSAT data table
Follow up
In msg #81 “PS: This post is similar to msg #67 and it is presented with current 2015 PSAT data table”
Typo, it is “PS: This post is similar to msg #63 and it is presented with current 2015 PSAT data table”
In #63, I used some assumptions, but in #81 I used current data with Statistical Math to calculate
Thank to @AnnMarie74 's suggestion
@dallaspiano Can you post your estimate for TX again (with SI’s and %) now that you see Testmasters’ update of 219. Sorry, I know you posted some stuff here but I’m kinda lost… lots of stuff going on.
Your post #70, you said TX will have about 1600 NMSF’s allotted based on your estimated 247,000 juniors that took the PSAT. Our allotment is only based on TX seniors graduating compared to the country’s seniors graduating. Therefore, I think it’s still gonna be around 1300 not 1600.
I wish my sample could be larger… The difficult thing is we don’t know how many high scores out there that are not participating in forums. 1 thing that surprised me is Testmasters had over 8500 scores and no 228…and my small sample had a few…interesting!
- Here is the updated data from CC’s
sammieb (classmates) 2-3 people 216+ TX
mphiltx (15 jrs with) 210-218 TX
mphiltx (5 jrs with) >=219 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1510 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1500 TX
curlypie99 ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1460 TX
drew ?? 1450 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1430 TX
sammieb (post 1851) 228 1520 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
slparent (friend) 221 1480 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
txmum 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
sammieb 216 1460 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
speedy2019 215 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross’ friend 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ross’ friend 213 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
ross’ friend 211 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
justanormaldude 203 1390 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 202 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 198 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 197 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 195 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 190 TX
mphilltx 189 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 182 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 180 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 175 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 160 TX
slparent ( friend) 1380 TX
- From others websites
melanie (lots scores 1480+) ?? 1480+ TX
frankmeister ?? 1450 TX
zola ?? 1350 TX
aamir 222 TX
melanie 220 1480 TX
neal 220 TX
texasboy 220 TX
cody 218 TX
irving 218 TX
hunter 215 TX
bill 214 1450 TX
sammy 214 TX
gary 213 TX
sara 213 TX
jason 212 1410 TX
deborah 212 TX
ron 212 TX
cody’s friend 211 TX
tim 211 TX
jared 208 TX
laura 208 TX
m 208 TX
julie 206 TX
anne gabrois 201 TX
neal’s friend 192 TX
@SLparent,
I did not say TX will have 1600+NMF, post #70 is to give an example that how illogical to have cut-off at SI 219.
msg #70.
"Test Master concluded that Texas cut off would be SI 219 or 59 NMF out of (+/- 9000 students - they said 10000 - i doubt).
Estimate for 11th graders is 247,000 (compare last years 227,078) then we will have 1620 NMF. And we still have around 1353 NMF awards. The Extra would be 266 (1620-1353=266), where is the last 1353th goes, that 1353th has to go up in SI at least 221."
After recalculation (with current data) in post #81, I am confident that TS 1430 will make to NMSF
but 1430 TS covers 212-218 SI. You think 212 would make it or more like 215-216?
A prediction using total score is not very helpful. Only the selection index matters, a point which was hammered home and seemingly understood by all about 10,000 posts ago. A 218 has about a 1 in 4 shot. A 212? My goodness. That’s more like one in a million ('so you’re telling me there’s a chance…").
@SLparent, thank you for TX data. In post #70
"Common sense: we have 4 score slots (1490, 1500, 1510, 1520). How many TX students in 1520 or 1510 slots that you know). I assume it (TX) distributes like
1520 - 90 stu
1510 - 180 stu
1500 - 360 stu
1490 - 723 stu ----- since 1490 associated with SI 221
From that, I say I would see at least 15 scores at 1520, 25 scores at 1510, and 40 scores at 1500, 50 scores at 1490 from @SLparent 's TX score collection record."
From your data collection, I see around 16 scores above 1480. If Tx has high cut off 219, we should see at least 50 above 1480 right now (out of possible 1353), and it does not happen yet
Answer your post #85, I am confident TS 1430 will make it NMF 75%to 80%. There is nothing 100% at this time,.
SI 221, I mean 95% CHANCE to be a NMF. But SI 221 associates with 99.84 Percentile (User or 11th graders)
Since I found magic number 99.54 - very significant, since it goes along with past PSATs, SATs. This 99.54 is calculated from current data sets
In the past, I calculated 99.54 based on past tests, but this 99.54 is from current data. It matched Present to Past
@mnpapa29, thank for your comments -“A prediction using total score is not very helpful”.
SI useful? no no no, many conflicts
%tile useful? no no no, many weak spots
TS useful? no no no - at least that 's way you see it
Do you have something new (not about SI, %tile, TS) can be used to make prediction better? Please, share with CC
You are parents, use other’s info at your discretion.
@mnpapa29, what is your intention when saying “That’s more like one in a million ('so you’re telling me there’s a chance…”).".
Ridicule?
Do you know there will be 15000 NMFs for a population of 1,724,416 test takers this time? That means there are 8699 chances/million.
Before you criticize or ridicule other please check your Math knowledge.
I think it is 16,000 NMSFS: http://www.nationalmerit.org/Merit_About_Leaflet.pdf
@CA1543, you are right 16000 NMSF (NM SemiFinalist)
and 15000 NMF (NM Finalist) :)>- :)>-
http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-finalist-how-to-win-the-scholarship
“Of these juniors, about 16,000 gain scores that qualify them as Semifinalists (that’s a little more than 1%). This group is narrowed down to 15,000, who become Finalists. Of this group, about 8,000 are awarded scholarships. You can maximize your chances at each stage to win a National Merit Scholarship”
Tim Tim says:
February 8, 2016 at 10:28 am
Who are Bill and Michael? Are you real?
Reply
Bill says:
February 9, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Tim Tim,
That’s quite the existential query. If you are familiar with Descartes’ Meditations on First Philosophy, you might argue that as one has thought, which undoubtedly exists, and as thought is inseparable from oneself, then one must necessarily exist. However, as Descartes points out, the establishment of oneself does not preclude the existence of a genius malignus, or evil demon, capable of perpetuating falsities to our senses. Given that I know that I exist, because I am capable of thought and therefore must exist in some capacity or another, I think it’s more appropriate that I ask: are you real?
Hope this helps!
PS Next time, please try and stay on topic.
Reply
Tim Tim says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
February 10, 2016 at 3:06 pm
Yes, I know you are Bill Sommers (281) 276-7777 support@testmasters.com, Michael graduated with a BA in Chemistry from Rice (2015?). I am very real and I am a junior in HS. Many parents and students look up to your estimates. Why are you not posting your full names? There is no guarantee 100% for calculated guesses. Using your own words to describe myself -I know that I exist, because I am capable of thought and therefore must exist in some capacity or another. Thank you for replying with your busy schedule
http://www.zoominfo.com/p/Michael-Cinnamon/-2147048561
Michael Cinnamon
Instructor
Phone: (310) -* HQ Phone
Local Address: United States
TestMasters
The Water Garden 1620 26Th Street Suite 1000 North
Santa Monica , California 90404
United States
Interesting article about HISD’s NMSF camp. This article was in July 2014…wondering if they had the July 2015 camp or not…see a connection between HISD & testmasters.
@dallaspiano so, is this the Michael that’s been responding to people’s questions?
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/about/
Bill – Bill graduated with a B.A. in English and a minor in philosophy. Bill enjoys reading, writing, ruminating, and sharing sagacious college admission advice with College Compass readers. If you have any questions for Bill, be sure to Ask Test Masters!
James – James recently graduated magna cum laude with a B.A. in Creative Writing and a B.F.A. in Musical Theater with an Honors Program concentration. A former Test Masters student, James now teaches the same test-tackling strategies that helped him achieve a 2280 on the SAT in 2009 (and, by extension, earn a Presidential Scholarship at a prestigious private university). Having been on over twenty college campus tours, he understands how baffling the college admissions process can be and is eager to help students find the colleges that are the right fit for them.
Michael – Michael recently graduated from Rice University with a B.A. in Chemistry. As a Test Masters instructor he now imparts the same strategies that helped him get a 2330 on the SAT, and enjoys doling out unsolicited advice regarding college admissions to pretty much anyone who will listen.
Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean = 148 and SD = 26)
PSAT 2015 …Percentile
228…99.89
227…99.88
226…99.87
225…99.85
224…99.83
223…99.81
222…99.78
221…99.75
220…99.72
219…99.68
218…99.64
217…99.60
216…99.55
215…99.50
214…99.44
213…99.38
212…99.30
211…99.23
210…99.15
209…99.05
208…98.95
SI 214 associates with 99.44 percentile, that mean every 10000 (national) we 56 NMSF qualifiers
So on, SI 209 associates with 16,382 NMSF qualifiers
By using http://bayes.bgsu.edu/nsf_web/jscript/normal_cdf/normal_icdf.htm
I apply Mean, SD and Percentile to calculate associated SI
@dallaspiano thanks so much for all that good stuff. Now we wait. Please post if you hear or see anything new.
Do we have 16000 NMSF or else? No, maybe 16227
About 16,227
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1849640-national-merit-cutoff-predictions-class-of-2017-p53.html
01-18-2016 at 9:31 am
Hi Y’all. New to this CC forum. It’s fascinating to read through all this NMSC cutoff discussions now that it’s pay-up time for a 2017 college bound kid!
My question is wrt high-expected cut-offs each state’s SI’s. As the tail is expected to be FAT, what happens if there are far more candidates at the lowest SI (let’s just say 215) than are positions available? For OH the number of semi-finalist was 618 in 2015, out of 16227 semi-finalist nationwide. So let’s say the SI cut-off is determined to be 215 and clearly everyone with >= 216 is in, but there are far too many students at 215 SI than slots available for semi-finalist selection. Would CB then invite all of 215 SI students to participate forward in the competition or take in fewer than 618 semi-finalist for those who scored >=216? I anticipate this will become an issue for many states as the tail is expected to be fatter than it’s been traditionally. My hope is that the appx 16000 SF is just that, an approximation.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1816872-psat-discussion-thread-2015-p298.html
@OHToCollege actually I could be wrong but I think the NMSC will make it so that there are no NM’s below the commended cut-off. It theoretically could happen if they held to the 50,000 as a “hard” number but they don’t. For instance in the 2013-14 National Merit Annual report you see that the total is 53,175 (36,948 commended and 16,227 SF’s). There’s obviously a little bit of juggling that goes on behind the scenes.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1816872-psat-discussion-thread-2015-p293.html
@LivinProof wrote:
"OK, wading in here…DD in CA scored a 1460/217 which CB says is 99+% (natl presumably). Assuming the reported % are not completely screwy then I can’t see the CA cutoff being in the 220’s.
Looking at the last two NMSC annual reports would indicate she is safely in:
2014 Nationally - 16,227 finalists out of 1,476,770 entrants = 1.10%
2014 California- 2,027 finalists out of 176,879 entrants = 1.15%
Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean=987 and SD=174)) to see in term of TS
TS2015…Percentile
1440…99.54…99+ lowest
1430…99.46
1420…99.36
1410…99.25
1400…99.12
1390…98.96… or 99
TS 1440 associates with 99.54 percentile, that mean every 10000 (national) we have 46 NMSF qualifiers
So on, TS 1400 associates with 15,175 NMSF qualifiers
By using http://bayes.bgsu.edu/nsf_web/jscript/normal_cdf/normal_icdf.htm
I apply Mean, SD and Percentile to calculate associated TS