I posted this in the other thread, but very appropriate here as well.
Looks like the new TestMasters projection is:
From Michael - February 5, 2016 at 1:49 pm
Hi! We’re expecting a 219 to be the Texas cutoff based on information we’re publishing shortly. A 220 is definitely in that range!
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Michaels answer has been removed as of 5:28pm central time.
Hunter Stallard says:
January 9, 2016 at 12:49 am
How likely do you think these are? I scored a 215 in Texas, and assumed that I would make the cutoffs on your earlier estimates. : /
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Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Hi Hunter, we’re planning another update tonight, and based on that data, we’re expecting our projections to be in the right ballpark for national merit.
Reply
Based on SAT data tables (2006 to 2015)
Two key points I used are 550+ perfect scores, and 99.54.
2015 PSAT data (this table is slightly different from one posted in post #55)
T Score…SI Min…SI Max…% …%tile
1520…228…228 …99.97…99+
1510…226…227 …99.95…99+
1500…224…226 …99.92…99+
1490…222…225 …99.89…99+
1480…220…224 …99.84…99+
1470…218…223 …99.78…99+
1460…216…222 …99.71…99+
1450…214…221 …99.63…99+
1440…212…220 …99.54…99+
1430…210…219 …99.45…99
1420…208…218 …99.35…99
1410…206…217 …99.24…99
1400…204…216 …99.12…99
1390…202…214 …99.01…99
Can I pin point cut off for TX? No, I can’t.
But I can say if your score is 1450 and up or SI 215 and up - 90% you will make it to NMSF in TX. Anyway, it’s just my guess
Possible cut off for TX - up to your preference
1- In TS, you can dip down 2-3 band slots
2- In SI , you can dip down 3-5 band slots
Good news?
"Anne Grabois says:
January 12, 2016 at 3:56 pm
I made a 201 and am from Texas. I know that isn’t high enough for National Merit but what do you think about Commended? My score sheet says I’m in the 98% (study group) overall and 97% of actual projected users overall. So would that mean it’s good enough for Commended? Thanks for your help.
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Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:40 pm
If 201 can be a good shot at Commended in TX, can we say 210 be a decent one to make NMSF? Hm Hm
:-*
Tim Tim says:
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
February 8, 2016 at 10:28 am
Who are Bill and Michael? Are you real?
Two key points I used are 550+ perfect scores, and 99.54 (lowest 99+%)
228 Scale…240 Scale
228…99.98…99+…239-240
227…99.97…99+…238
226…99.95…99+…237
225…99.93…99+…236
224…99.90…99+…235
223…99.87…99+…234
222…99.84…99+…233
221…99.81…99+…232
220…99.77…99+…231
219…99.73…99+…230
218…99.69…99+…229
217…99.65…99+…228
216…99.62…99+…227
215…99.58…99+…226
214…99.54…99+…225
213…99.50…99…224
212…99.55…99…223
211…99.49…99…222
210…99.42…99…221
209…99.35…99…220
208…99.28…99…219
207…99.20…99…218
206…99.11…99…217
205…99.00…99…215-216
• Based on Test Master Data on 2/9/2016
• http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-2-2016-national-merit-semifinalist-cutoff-score-texas-estimate/
• Column 1: total from top at each SI
• Column 2: SI
• Column 3: # students (eyeballing)
• Column 4: associated percentile
•
0… 228 - 0…99.99…99+%
2… 227 - 2…99.98
7… 226 - 5…99.93
13… 225 - 6…99.87
21… 224 - 8…99.79
24… 223 - 3…99.76
32… 222 - 8…99.68
39… 221 - 7…99.61
52… 220 - 13…99.48
59… 219 - 7…99.41
73… 218 - 14…99.27
83… 217 - 10…99.17
96… 216 - 13…99.04…99%
107… 215 - 12…98.93
120… 214 - 13…98.80
129… 213 - 9…98.71
141… 212 - 12…98.59
148… 211 - 7…98.52
161… 210 - 13…98.39
167… 209 - 6…98.33
178… 208 - 11…98.22
189… 207 - 11…98.11
205… 206 - 16…97.95
212… 205 - 7…97.88
229… 204 - 17…97.71
243… 203 - 14…97.57
259… 202 - 16…97.41
275… 201 - 16…97.25
290… 200 - 15…97.10
• Last Year, we had 227,078 students taking PSAT, NMSC awarded 1353 NMF for TX.
So in order for the last 1353th to get awarded, that student has to be in 99.40%tile or top 0.6%
• Assume data from Test Master is correct, so at SI 219 is the cut off,
• 1) 2015 SI table has 15 slots in range 99+, but with Test Master calculation we have 10 slots
• 2) 2015 SI table has 09 slots in range 99 , but with Test Master calculation we have 03 slots
• 3) 2015 SI table start with 205 at lowest 99, but Test Master start 98% with SI 206
• 4) Commended cut off at 200 is matched with 97% in 2015 SI tables
• Yes, @SLparent 's data may not be representative, but with SI 219 is the ASSUMED cut off, I would see SI greater than 220 or others above would be explosive in TX. Don’t feel it yet
• If we accept 4)====== ========> 1) and 2) and 3) are invalid =====> CB data is reliable ===> Test Mastes data not right
• If we accept 1) and 2) and 3) ===> 2015 SI table is invalid========> CB data is unreliable ==> sue CB asap
@Speedy2019, thank you. You have strong background in Statistical analysis and Math, while I m still in HS and I use ACT data representation (very basic). It is a good experience to learn from you. Data (past and present) shows real results, math analyzes results, use the math results to predict the future ones. Who will have the last laugh, probably it’s YOU
Test Master concluded that Texas cut off would be SI 219 or 59 NMF out of (+/- 9000 students - they said 10000 - i doubt).
Estimate for 11th graders is 247,000 (compare last years 227,078) then we will have 1620 NMF. And we still have around 1353 NMF awards. The Extra would be 266 (1620-1353=266), where is the last 1353th goes, that 1353th has to go up in SI at least 221.
Don’t you know hard it is to score at 221/227 (no one at 228) or 1490/1520 in Texas? I don’t want to say it’s impossible but IT IS very hard and very difficult for wider range of smartness in TX
Common sense: we have 4 score slots (1490, 1500, 1510, 1520). How many TX students in 1520 or 1510 slots that you know). I assume it (TX) distributes like
1520 - 90 stu
1510 - 180 stu
1500 - 360 stu
1490 - 723 stu
From that, I say I would see at least 15 scores at 1520, 25 scores at 1510, and 40 scores at 1500, 50 scores at 1490 from @SLparent 's TX score collection record.
Do we see any explosive number for each above score slot??? NO and NO … 219 has to go down
@dallaspiano…my S has a 221 with a 1460. Does that fit into you scale?
@Tgirlfriend, your daughter make it 90% (TestMaster and Mine) in term of SI. Make sure, your D follows the protocols then it will be 95%.
In term of TS, your daughter make it 90%.
Post #70 is just to show how Test Master data is NOT representative and not logical from Math view point. I am rarely wrong (Perfect Math scores in SAT and ACT – ha ha … bragging a little bit, hope you don’t mind), just a little kid I am
Interesting,
From https://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/blog/2016/01/14/can-you-trust-your-psat-score/
See 2014 PSAT Curve graph
From new update (TestMaster) -
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-2-2016-national-merit-semifinalist-cutoff-score-texas-estimate/
See 2 graphs (SI vs Count)
We can similarities between Applerouth’s and Testmaster’s graphs - shift to the left
Then we can use results from 2014 PSAT to interpret 2015 PSAT cut off for NMF. We come to target points closer
I would be careful making predictions based on prior year outcomes. The 2015 test was a “new” test, reflecting the redesign of the SAT coming out in 2016. Is it possible that scores shift up or down as a whole as a result of the redesign?
@dallaspiano …I thought 221 is in the 95%. Did I miss something with your data? So do you think the Texas cutoff will be higher than a 219? My S did pretty good on his SAT.
@Tgirlfriend, I mean your S has 90% chance to be NMF. if follow thru guided protocols, it will be 95% chance
When I say “make it” mean “to be a NMF”
According to my calculation with SI 221, he is at 99.84 percentile - at top top top
According to my calculation with TS 1460, he is at 99.71 percentile - at top top top
Yes, you misunderstood CHANCE and PERCENTILE. Short, congratulation to your S
@4getit, I believe you parents
I agree with you that 2015 PSAT is a new test, I took it in 10/28/2015.
I also agree with you that I “would be careful making predictions based on prior year outcomes”.
Say, I do not have current data (nobody has), so I have to use data from previous years. Or just wait?
May you suggest something so I can guess or predict the cut off in the mean time? Thank you in advance
@dallaspiano…Clearly, I am not near as smart as everyone on this thread. I am kinda slow and old put I am trying to keep up…lol Thanks for explaining things to me. I appreciate all your hard work.
@Tgirlfriend, the thing is your S make you smile and save you big bucks going to college. That counts. Who care SI, TS, %tile… after that