National Merit Cutoff Predictions for Class of 2017 for TEXAS

Test Preparation
121

@VABogart, thank you for reading my posts and having very kind words. U r in VA?

Yes, we are thru almost 213 pages discussing about cut off. And this is a small corner of those.

Yes, I do not try to convince anybody.

It’s at one’s discretion to believe any posted internet information.

“Statistical investigation is part of an information gathering and learning process which is undertaken to seek meaning from and to learn more about observed phenomena as well as to inform decisions and actions”

You probably noted “Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean = 148 and SD = 26), and 1,724,416 test takers”

I used Statistical Math - based on Mean, SD, Percentiles, ranges - to check on CB SAT data tables (from 2006 to 2015).CB data behaved nicely and they behaved same patterns. Same thing with 2015 PSAT

That makes me question about TestMasters 's statistical analysis of their data.

I also researched on Bill and Michael’s backgrounds - Bill got BA in English, Michael is just a recent Chemistry graduate (2015) from Rice

I asked both of them the validity of Math analysis 5 days ago, but not received no answers yet .

I am not sad nor disappointed nor infuriated about TestMasters’ s data or results. They can post any results, they can interpret any info. But their data do not convince me. Do they care about me? Sure they do not

My stand: Trust but Verify (Ronald Reagan)

Thank you. You read my post, you disagreed and you responded in a very nice way.

That’s all right. We all have to wait until Sept 2016 to know.

Have a nice day. It was really a nice day today in Dallas area

122

I have been trying to wade through the various analyses in this thread but find that I’m somewhat uncertain what it all means. I realize these are all guesstimates, but since you’ve obviously all thought about this a lot more than I have, what is the chance that an SI of 209 might make the cutoff for a semi finalist in Texas? Much appreciated.

123

@dallaspiano You are a scholar and a gentleman. I’ll continue following this thread and hope that your analysis carries the day. :slight_smile: Yes, we’re in Virginia – my son’s SI appears to put him on the bubble.

@CorpusChristi I believe SI of 209 certainly has an excellent chance of making Commended, but I can’t say of NMSF. Others can speak to this with far more wisdom and authority.

124

Thank you @VABogart .

125

Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean = 148 and SD = 26), and 1,724,416 test takers

PSAT 2015 …Percentile

214…99.44 @ this SI and up,~ 9656 NMSF qualifiers
213…99.38 @ this SI and up, 10691 NMSF qualifiers
212…99.30 @ this SI and up, 12070 NMSF qualifiers
211…99.23 @ this SI and up, 13278 NMSF qualifiers
210…99.15 @ this SI and up, 14657 NMSF qualifiers

209…99.05 @ this SI and up, 16347 NMSF qualifiers

SI 209 associated with 99.052 percentile

From http://www.nationalmerit.org/annual_report.pdf, for 2014 NMSQT (page 29)
We had 1,476,770 entrant test takers, 36,948 NM Commended and 16,227 NMSFs

Not much a difference between 16,227 (2014 program) and 16,347 (2016 program)

126

Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean=987 and SD=174) and 1,724,416 test takers. To see in term of TS

TS…%tile

1450…99.61 @ this TS and up, ~6725 NMSF qualifiers
1440…99.54 @ this TS and up, ~7932 NMSF qualifiers
1430…99.46 @ this TS and up, ~9312 NMSF qualifiers
1420…99.36 @ this TS and up, 11036 NMSF qualifiers
1410…99.25 @ this TS and up, 12933 NMSF qualifiers
1400…99.12 @ this TS and up, 15174 NMSF qualifiers

In http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-finalist-how-to-win-the-scholarship,

On 01/22/2015, Rebecca Safier wrote " most students must score above 1400 (out of 1520) to qualify as a Semifinalist",

It’s probably true with the above interpretation

127

@dallaspiano very well analyzed! Am I correct in taking from that, that an SI of 209 could possibly be the cut off score this year since the numbers of nmsf are pretty similar to last year’s numbers?

128

2014 program, we had 1,476,770 entrant test takers
2016 program, we had 1,724,416 entrant test takers
Not much a difference between 16,227 (2014 program) and 16,347 (2016 program)

129

@dallaspiano I posted this on the other thread…wondered if Testmasters worked with HISD students this past summer. Also, I don’t know why their latest estimate of 219 for TX has a title of 2016 National Merit. Why 2016? Isn’t
it 2017? Maybe typo? Hope they didn’t use 2016 data to analyze (haha). Also, they said they received about 10,000 scores but their chart only shows about 8,600? What happened to the rest? If they plugged in the rest, it could be higher than 219 cut off but I’m still wondering about the data.

"02-15-2016 at 1:43 pm
@bucketDad (#3175) I found a link about HISD’s PSAT camp with Testmasters but it’s back in July 2014, so I wondered if HISD had the same camp in July 2015 with Testmasters…haven’t been able to find a similar link for 2015.

http://blogs.houstonisd.org/news/2014/07/21/hisd-psat-prep-camp-aims-at-creating-national-merit-scholars/"

130

@SLparent can’t remember if this was tossed into the discussion on the other thread: that maybe the difference between the 10,000 and the 8,600 had to do with eliminating those students who weren’t eligible (US citizens and so forth). Sorry if that possibility was already addressed and I’m repeating myself. :-B

131

@Mamelot Thanks. I do remember it was discussed but that 's a huge % though… 14%?

132

@SLparent yeah that is high and the only way they could eliminate those students would be if that field were included on the data set. TX is probably higher than national average (I’m guessing) - 2013/14 annual report for NMSC shows that 1,476,770 were program entrants. 2012 State summary page from the CB states that 1,551,095 juniors took the test. That’s only a 5% difference, not 14%. I can’t image TX is 3 times the national average! So yeah, maybe something else is going on with that data.

133

If you have Android phones or tablets, you can use an app - Probability Distributions written by Matthew Bognar. This app allows you to plug in your preference number to calculate x or P based on Mean and SD

In “Select a Distribution” pull down, select Normal

In x box: enter SI# or TS# - enter corresponding Mean and SD (in SI or TS tables)

In P box

  • select X<x, see="" x="" to="" the="" right="" -="" select="">x, see x to the left
    ***** For P make sure input 0.9954 for 99.54%</x,>
134

@dallaspiano can I get that app on iPhone?

135

Probability Distributions is a common app and there are many similar apps. Iphone may
have that app.

Or by PC use this http://bayes.bgsu.edu/nsf_web/jscript/normal_cdf/normal_icdf.htm

136

To determine whether you may be in a Circle of NMSF qualifiers
For example with a TS score 1430 and SI 212

==============
Based on SI
214…99.44 @ this SI and up,~ 9656 NMSF qualifiers
213…99.38 @ this SI and up, 10691 NMSF qualifiers
212…99.30 @ this SI and up, 12070 NMSF qualifiers
211…99.23 @ this SI and up, 13278 NMSF qualifiers
210…99.15 @ this SI and up, 14657 NMSF qualifiers
209…99.05 @ this SI and up, 16347 NMSF qualifiers

***** with SI 212, you are in the pool of 12070 qualifiers out of 16347 NMSF

Based on TS
TS…%tile

1450…99.61 @ this TS and up, ~6725 NMSF qualifiers
1440…99.54 @ this TS and up, ~7932 NMSF qualifiers
1430…99.46 @ this TS and up, ~9312 NMSF qualifiers
1420…99.36 @ this TS and up, 11036 NMSF qualifiers
1410…99.25 @ this TS and up, 12933 NMSF qualifiers
1400…99.12 @ this TS and up, 15174 NMSF qualifiers

***** with TS 1430, you are in the pool of 9312 qualifiers out of 16347 NMSF

For both SI and TS circles, you are in the pool 16347. Happy swimming
;)) :)>-

137

nvm

138

My brother, a freshman, got a 1490. Don’t really know the selection index, but this should be enough for NMSC, right? I was recently named a finalist with a 237 last year and a 2400 SAT.

139

@paulryu That’s an awesome score but he won’t qualify because he’s not a junior. If his score is at least the same when he takes it as a junior then he will be. You guys are smart!

140

Update post #135 - it is easier to go from SI to percentile or vice versa (same from TS to percentile or vice versa)

To determine whether you may be in a Circle of NMSF qualifiers
For example with a TS score 1430 and SI 212

Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean = 148 and SD = 26), and 1,724,416 test takers (from Cobb report)
Based on SI
SI…%tile
214…99.44 @ this SI and up,~ 9656 NMSF qualifiers
213…99.38 @ this SI and up, 10691 NMSF qualifiers
212…99.30 @ this SI and up, 12070 NMSF qualifiers
211…99.23 @ this SI and up, 13278 NMSF qualifiers
210…99.15 @ this SI and up, 14657 NMSF qualifiers
209…99.05 @ this SI and up, 16347 NMSF qualifiers

***** with SI 212, you are in the pool of 12070 qualifiers out of 16347 NMSF

Base on 2015 PSAT (Mean=987 and SD=174) and 1,724,416 test takers (from Cobb report)
Based on TS
TS…%tile

1450…99.61 @ this TS and up, ~6725 NMSF qualifiers
1440…99.54 @ this TS and up, ~7932 NMSF qualifiers
1430…99.46 @ this TS and up, ~9312 NMSF qualifiers
1420…99.36 @ this TS and up, 11036 NMSF qualifiers
1410…99.25 @ this TS and up, 12933 NMSF qualifiers
1400…99.12 @ this TS and up, 15174 NMSF qualifiers

***** with TS 1430, you are in the pool of 9312 qualifiers out of 16347 NMSF

For both SI and TS circles, you are in the pool 16347. Happy swimming

NOTE: from past record, we usually have 5% unqualified entrant (reason idk), so 1,724,416 test takes may come down to 1,638,195 - more room to wiggle