I called the NHRP to find out cutoffs for NHRP. Last year the cutoff for the Southwest region, which includes Texas was 182, this year it is 191.
It’s good to know that go from 182 to 191.
But do not interpret that TX 220 (last year) will go up to 229 this year???
Somewhere says NHRP cut off is usually at where NM Commended level starts (NHRP SI 191)
So this year NM Commended level is 192 or 193???
I just called NMSC and they said they have nothing to do with the NHRP. Two totally separate organizations!!! The gentleman at NMSC told me that just because the NHRP score went up does not mean that the NMSF scores will go up or down.
@dallaspiano - for the South region (not sure which states that includes), last year was 199 and this year is 204 NHRP.
@dallaspiano…I think the 229 would be impossible. lol You crack me up with that comment.
Some one said
“I called CB NHRP today and I got a phone number for the people that will be handling the NHRP. I found out that for TX(Region 4, Southwest)”
The numbers all go to 11. It’s one louder than 10.
@Mamelot, do you mean 191+ 11 or just 211?
New cutoffs from Compass Edu. Group just got delivered to my inbox.
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
This year we have 1,724,416 test takers and about 5% unqualified, result in 1,638,195 eligible entrants to NMSF
Let’s say this year we will have 16,347 NMSF. (instead of 16,227 from 2014 program)
Using Matthew Bognar app
- For 1,724,416, TS 1395.25 or 1400, SI 209.004 ~ 209 (at 99.052%tile)
- For 1,638,195, TS 1391.92 or 1400, SI 208.504 ~ 209 (at 99.002%tile)
TS 1400 and SI 209 are the starting points for NMSF hopeful candidates (Normal Distribution)
*** Applerouth charts suggest scores shift to the right due to NOT Normal Distribution, then TS 1410 or
SI 210 will be the staring points - I DOUBT about that, since data from previous years behaved consistently and nicely
It’s a reference to a movie, @Dallaspiano. Said in jest 
Now I want to watch This is Spinal Tap instead of clean the kitchen. Thanks a lot @Mamelot
Commended is usually above the highest nhrp region (South) which was 204. So if the trend still holds commended and the nmsf cutoff for Wyoming, N. Dakota, and S. Dakota will be around 206, 4 points higher than it was.
So, following your logic Texas might be 224???, Idk. I’m not making this claim at all just following your logic from post #141.
@nw2this, #141 just a joke. Check #139 and #150
@nw2this, you’re probably joking. You have posted 655 msg already. What was your intention when you skipped all my logic presented in this thread then keyed on #141.
Even - NEW TO THIS - does not mean that you are new to this CC, right?
Anyway, thank you for reading my post #141, and I am not trying to convince any body with my view on NMSF TX cut off. Use any posted internet info at your own discretion
Come to this point, too much time too much math. My mom wants me to stop and I say - Yes Mme
Using Matthew Bognar app, just for TX cut off estimate (and it is an estimate)
- For 1,724,416, TS 1395.25 or 1400, SI 209.004 ~ 209 (at 99.052%tile)
- For 1,638,195, TS 1391.92 or 1400, SI 208.504 ~ 209 (at 99.002%tile)
TS 1400 and SI 209 are the starting points for NMSF hopeful candidates (Normal Distribution)
*** Applerouth charts suggest scores shift to the right due to NOT Normal Distribution, then
TS 1410 and SI 210 are the starting points for NMSF hopeful candidates (NOT Normal Distribution)
If I am far from will-be-published CB result, sorry my bad
If I am close to will-be-published CB result, what happens ??? idk
NOTES: it’s necessary and sufficient to use both TS and SI to determine your hopeful NMSF status, since there are many anecdotes if using only one
I have been thru many ways to predict TX estimate cut off (if you follow my posts)
- by using old data tables (SAT and PSAT)
- by comparison
- by mapping
- by shifting due not Normal Distribution
- by using Statistical Math with current data
- by using Math analysis with previous population on old PSAT, old SAT
I am about calling it quit - going thru too much already.
Now another baffle is coming up with this table
http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvFfRgUzPLY%3D&tabid=125
in the program KY GSP, http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=SLs1SiGPNJk=&tabid=70
@dallaspiano thank you for all your work! Do you think this will only pertain to KY though? I wondered if this is KY NMSF cutoff? Or are you saying 211 starts the beginning of 99th percentile vs. 205 per CB’s SI table?
@dallaspiano I appreciate your efforts on this thread! I’m new to college confidential but you’ve done a good service by spending time helping others on here. Thanks!!