NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@3scoutsmom My school usually has around 20-30 for a class of about 250. About ten of my friends have 220+ scores, and thanks for responding!

Does anyone besides Compass Prep have predictions charts out? My DD and her friend are both at 219 in Texas, with a score of 1440. Compass Prep predicts 218-221. Class of 2017 was 220.

College Board has replaced Understanding 2015 scores with Understanding 2016 scores, https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores-2016.pdf.

But if you look at the Percentiles for 2016, 1440 = 99+ percentile, 1430 = 99+ percentile, 1420 = 99 percentile… all the way down to 1360. 1350=98 percentile.

I finally found a chart for 2015 percentiles here: http://blog.prepscholar.com/2015-psat-percentiles, and on the chart for 2015 (maybe) 1440 = 99+ percentile but 1430 = 99 percentile, all the way down to 1390 percentile = 99 percentile. 1380 = 98.

So from that it appears scores last year were slightly higher?

Ha! This is silly isn’t it. September is just a long way away. :slight_smile:

@strugglelyfe 20-30 NMF for a class size of 250 is very impressive! Thankfully the cut off will be based on scores from the entire state. As @planner03 pointed out early there are some entire Texas counties that only have one or two NMF. Your school is far from the norm, I don’t think you have to worry about the Texas cut off changing dramatically.

My high school is the #1 in Ohio so we have around 20 finalists and 20-30 commended. The highest score I saw is 1500 so my 1480 is not really special -_-.

DS scored a 1480, with an SI of 223 in WA. Crossing our fingers that it doesn’t go up by much this year as WA was a 220 last year.

His class has about 650 kids in it (most his school has ever had - they’re usually around 500-550) and the school typically has about 15-20 finalists. I don’t think they’ve ever had a semifinalist not be a finalist so that’s encouraging.

But DS was really hoping to not have to take the SAT. He just took the ACT on Saturday and was hoping he could be done testing except for IB tests. Oh well. As he said, “Four hours of my life to potentially get thousands of dollars towards college seems like a good tradeoff.” I agree!

Congrats to everyone this morning!

How likely is it to be able to increase an SSI 202 10th grade to SSI 218 in 11th grade?
Seems like a lot.

Depends on how much effort you put into prepping for it.

Seemingly doable to a stretch?

@alltoomuch My D18 got a 195 in 10th grade, 217 just now. She did prep on Khan Academy. She took the ACT in Sept and SAT in Oct, a few weeks before the PSAT.

@TheyCmeRolling, decide now that you will not compare your scores to those of your classmates. It does none of you any good, and it doesn’t matter to your journey what other kids’ scores are. I’d suggest that you don’t even share that information.

@shrimpburrito.
Great advice. Thank you.

@alltoomuch, how much prep did your student do before this PSAT? If he/she did no or very little prep and doesn’t have much experience with standardized tests then you could see a big improvement next year with prep. If the 202 SI came after intense prep, you might not be able to expect as much improvement. Also if your student was very anxious or didn’t feel well the day of the test, that could impact the score and addressing those issues for future tests could really help.

@alltoomuch DS went from a 207 last fall to a 223 this fall, so it can be done. He prepped for the ACT in the spring which probably helped as it was private tutoring specifically for the math and English sections of the ACT. He did that for three weeks, every Sunday for two hours. They gave him lots of tips for how to approach the tests as well, which he said really helped. He then spent some time between Sept-Oct this year on Khan Academy working on improving his score.

Also, he has had a full year of academics between then and now and that can’t be discounted.

If I’m honest, I hoped, but didn’t really think, his score would be this high. He was hoping for Commended as he was just below that cutoff with last year’s score.

She had taken SSAT two years prior. English went down from 9th grade PSAT but 10th grade Math went up nicely. English is her wheelhouse so surprising.
She is 98%. Always been 99% standardized test taker.
Don’t really want to pressure her too much if it will be a reach.
Maybe just have her prep for SAT per ShrimpBurrito and see what happens.

Yes. It will require her to be motivated and want it. See.

My DD went from 206 to 221. Math went from 600 to 730. She did Khan Academy prep online, mathlab using ALEKs, she said the Kaplan book was really helpful with tips, and then did probably 6 practice tests in a mock testing environment. Her issue was that she had forgotten a lot of the things she learned in 7th and 8th grade. She said she had needed to purge it from her brain to make room for Calculus.

I just found out that I got a 1490/223 for California. I know that last year the cutoff was a 221, but should I still be concerned? I’m worried that the cutoff will raise 3 points

@alltoomuch My daughter went from a 198 in 10th grade to a 218 in 11th grade. She did a formal SAT prep class in Aug/Sept, took the SAT and PSAT in Oct.

@rshortsma - Similar boat here in WA. My son has a 223 and WA’s cutoff was 220 last year. I’m so nervous that it will go up by too much and he won’t qualify.

The link someone posted earlier in the thread has a chart with predictions for cutoffs and the “volatility” of each state’a cutoff historically. WA has a low volatility rating so I’m cautiously optimistic but hope I just forget about this stuff until the end of summer because I don’t want to worry for that long!

Hi @Isinglore, DS’18 got 1480 in MI. But the NMSC selection Index says 223 not 221. Does yours say 221?