NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@ak200008 you can have the same score but different SI numbers the score is meaningless for National Merit.

My son got a 183 last year and a 221 this year, his junior year. He prepped all summer, Khan, reading classics, used Barrons and College Panda.

@3scoutsmom so it it the SI that we should be looking at?

@ak200008 SI is 221 because he did better in math than English.

@ak200008 YES! The SI number needs to be at or above your state’s cut off, that’s all that counts at this point

@ak200008 - my DS has a 1480 with a 223.

He did much better on reading and writing than math. Because each of the three counts, you get more benefit from a better “verbal” score than math as it is a combination of two subscores and math is all by itself.

He had a 38 reading, 37 writing, and 36.5 math. But if someone scored better on the math section and lower on the verbal sections, they could still have the same total PSAT score, but a lower SI.

Thanks @RoonilWazlib99

@alltoomuch DS received 202 last year as a freshman, and a 224 this year. No extra work other than just being more familiar with the test format I suppose. I think all the reading he did for school may have helped him in the CR section, and of course, one more year of math under his belt. Hope he can replicate this score next year.

^yep, this exactly. In fact my S had a 1490 but his SI is 222 because he was lopsided with a 760 in math. So each overall PSAT score has a range of possible SI; in my S’s case he got the lowest possible SI for his 1490 score. A student who is lopsided the other way and got a 760 verbal with 1490 overall would have a 225 SI for the exact same overall score as my S.

@alltoomuch, To answer your question about likelihood of increase, D18 got a 1350 and SI 204 in 10th grade (no prep whatsoever) and went up to a 1470, SI 221 in 11th grade with very little SAT prep. Instead, she was prepping for the Sept ACT. She was then burnt out and hardly looked at PSAT if at all. She did get a 35 ACT composite and maybe that prep helped with her stamina, but the increase you describe on PSAT is definitely feasible. I tend to think her score this year would have been even higher had she prepped for SAT versus ACT.

How likely is getting NMS with a 218 in Washington State? I messed up on the math :frowning:

Thanks for all the insight.
Key is prep for standardized tests this summer and take at least one in the fall.
Not everyone starts that early but see the benefit.
Got it! Hope she wants to try!

@alltoomuch, my son went from 1280, 193 to 1500, 224 from 10th to 11th. He did take a 6 week fall prep course that met 2 times per week, but I think mostly it was maturity and confidence as he began doing better on practice tests. Take lots of practice tests!

@Cleepople We are in WA stare as well. Cutoff last year was 220. WA typically has low volatility, but we are all just conjecturing at this point. It could go up three points or down two. No one knows.

Someone above suggested seeing how others at your school or in your area - that you would expect to score around the same as you - did and if they are all in the 220s, it might not be good news. But if they are all in the 209-212 range, it could be good news.

So begins the long wait until September.

Regardless, you are definitely a Commended Scholar and have a great score! There is nothing you can do now about the PSAT so just focus on the next steps - studying for the SAT/ACT, keeping your grades up, having fun with friends, and enjoying your junior year!

@TexasMomE, unfortunately in Texas the cutoff is close to 99.4%. Somewhere on compass he has a chart that shows what percentage of test takers become NMSF and it ranges from .6% to 2.1%, with Texas at .7%. Texas has a high percentage of juniors taking the test and that seems to correlate to a higher cutoff.

Also, I think you should look at the right column on the PSAT percentiles. The right column (user group) represents the actual students who took the test for 11th grade, and 1440 = 98%. The left column is based on a sample to determine the percentile if ALL juniors took the test. Last year’s percentile for 1440 was 99%, but both groups were estimates.

I have yet to find true percentiles for last year for the Selection Index, which is what we need.

How exactly is SI calculated? I got a 720 CRW and 750 Math for a 1470 total, but my SI is 219. Any chance at qualifying for NJ?

Its definitely possible to raise your score. I got a 201 (old PSAT but it was 2 points below commended that year so approximately 207ish concorded?) freshman year, a 221 sophomore year without much prep (I think I learned a lot more grammar in school though), and a 226 junior year with a few practice tests and khan practice!

Basically you double the EBRW and add the Math, then chop the zero. So (720*2 + 750)/10 = 219.

Sorry to say, New Jersey had the highest cutoff last year at 222, and it’s not very likely to decrease.

Still no scores posted for my 8th grader on PSAT 8/9

@RoonilWazlib99 oops I must have missed their reply! A good number of people in my school got around 213-219 and a couple got 220+. However my school is a top ranked public and fair number of people get NMF every year here if any of that matters.