NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@Boss an Which percentile is that? The PSAT/NMSQT User Percentile is the one that counts. The other one is misleading because it includes students who didn’t take the PSAT.

@3scoutsmom How do you predict the commended cutoff to change from last year? Some are saying it will increase, decreasing, or stay the same. Just wondering what you thought about it!

Both come in at 98%… the actual user percentile and nationally representative sample. No difference. Odd.
How can a 202/98% not be Commended…that is what I am trying to understand.
To me, it would mean scores are lower this year…perhaps.

…same for each subsection as well. No % difference between user and national samples.

@Boss an did you/your kid do better in math or reading/writing? If they did better in math than reading/writing the SI would be lower because reading/writing is weighted more heavily.

@snowfairy137…you would still think a high 98% would still be Commended. Better in R/W but very equal.

The way I understand it, Commended is not determined by percentages at all it might be represented that way after the fact but the commended score is always equal to the lowest state’s cut off.

  1. National merit looks at the number of graduating students in each state last year to determine how many NM scholars they want from each state.
  2. They look at how many kids made what score and draw a line as close to their target number as possible to get the cut off for that state.
  3. After they figured out the cut off for each state, whatever the lowest cut off is becomes the number for Commended

32 + 36 + 33 = 101
= 202
= 98%

So…209 would seem high for Commended. My guess.

Got it. Thanks! I would still think 98% would qualify but maybe not. Weird.

Feeling a little frustrated…

My daughter got a 1460 and a 218 SI (720 english, 740 math).

We live in CT which had a cutoff of 220 last year.

I guess my frustration stems from the way the SI is calculated. She is a very well rounded student but scored slightly higher in math. It stinks that there are kids who got the same total PSAT score but landed a 220 because their english score was better than their math score . In fact, you could even score a 1440 and still end up with a SI of 220 if you had the “correct” combo of “higher” english score and “lower” math score. For example a 1440 with a 760 english and 680 math would yield a 220 SI.

I did a little reading and it looks like back in the early 1990s they reconfigured how they calculate the SI to address gender bias issues in response to a lawsuit.

The whole thing feels counterintuitive to me.

Many school systems push females to excel in math and science because they are historically an under-represented group in these subjects. So, why does NMS still weigh the english so much higher? I would think they would want to reward well-rounded students. Instead, it seems like “lopsided” students are recognized while “well-rounded” students can be left out.

Bummer.

Maybe some of the lower state 99% can posts…than we would get a sense. Not our state.

@Boss an yea you would think. CB has been very misleading with their percentiles since they changed the PSAT. I don’t think the SI for commended will drop down 7 points, but good luck. A 98th percentile PSAT score is excellent either way and I’m sure they’ll do well on the SAT.

@DoingOurBest I don’t think it’s so much that english is weighed higher, it’s that there are 3 parts to the test: english, reading, and math, and two happen to fall under the category of English/Reading. There isn’t really a way to have a second math"y" part to make it even, unless they were to add Science like ACT, but even that is more like reading than it is math.

I live in WA, so can’t help there.

@Soccer1235 but the SAT is “even” now so, yes, you can.

@DoingOurBest, you have to think of the test as three parts, not two. Writing is a different skill than reading. A truly well rounded student would have equal reading, writing and math skills. My own S always does well overall in English and might be considered “well rounded” at first glance, but he actually has always been comparatively weaker at writing than reading and his PSAT subscore reflects that.

@Soccer1235 I hear ya :slight_smile:

It still just feels like they are favoring the kids who are stronger in language / english versus math.

I think hanging out on this thread is getting to me haha! I"m not gonna lie…it’s not easy living in a high-cutoff-state.

Kudos to all the kids who did well. Don’t let my frustration here in CT bring you down :slight_smile:

@traveler98 I think that’s my point. My daughter is actually very well rounded (ranked #1 in her class as of right now) She got a 36 reading, 36 writing, and a 37 math. About as well-rounded as you can get. 1460 PSAT, 218 SI.

Someone could have gotten a 38 reading, 38 writing, and a 34 math and that would translate to a lower PSAT score (1440)…but a higher SI (220).

In my example above, the more “lopsided” kid makes the cut, but the more “well-rounded” kid does not.

But National Merit Corp can’t win here. There’s no way to structure it to be “fair” in everyone’s eyes.

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