Any guesses for the Michigan cutoff. Last year’s was 216 and I received a 216. Should I expect it to go up?
According to a decently respected blog that I’m apparently not allowed to name, it is now looking more likely that a lot of state cutoffs will go up this year.
That blog mentioned that updated predictions based on the increased commended scores would be posted later this week. Still crossing fingers that Texas does not go up by more than one point!
I received an email from another test prep co (bear native to China) with a link that had predictions with FL up 2 Pt’s.
Bear native to China (prep co) emailed the prediction of Texas 2 points higher…Praying he is wrong.
Ooh, must check out the blog of “higher education Chinese bear”
Hmmmmm…same test prep company is predicting Oklahoma to be two points higher as well. That’s a remarkably consistent prediction.
Same result predicted for PA.
And D.C. And Massachusetts. And California. So THAT’S why he didn’t put the info all together in a table…he seems to have just added two points to last year’s cutoff for every state because the commended level went up two points. I’ll wait to see what other guy predicts later this week.
So funny, I bet new readers on this thread will think we’re all off our rockers with the obscure references and the minutiae of predictions. I know I’m mostly doing it for fun to pass the time while we wait and wait and WAIT for NMSC notification in September.
@traveler98 now you have us sounding exactly like the kids do when they’re waiting and waiting for their admissions decisions! 
@Winky1, oh man, can you imagine what the college threads would look like if schools took almost a year to decide who got in?
I don’t think that Chinese bear is credible at all! You can’t simply add two point to every state it simply doesn’t work like that! (Thankfully!) I betting that Texas will only go up one point or so I hope!
I’m thinking that CA will go up by 1 point at most. The compression at the top of the scale is just too strong for anything else.
If we are looking at the same site, not all the states are predicted to go up by 2 points on that site. Just going down alphabetically, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois… are predicted to go up by 1 point only. I am new to this and wonder how he predicts which states will go up by 1 vs 2 points?
Commended going up two points does NOT mean a two point increase across the board, just due to compression at the higher end. Most likely the range will tighten over time. After all, they would run out of room at the high end!
It will be interesting to see what the blog-that-shall-not-be -amed says. Last year EVERYONE was wrong at least some of the time but the no-name blog by far had the most in-depth, informative, and accurate analysis. They are very much invested in predicting as accurately as possible and usually have the best comments too.
From everything I have seen, the shift of the curve to the right is pretty broad-based. At this point, I’m assuming that the test was easier than in years past. If so, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see 1-3 pt increases for every state.
The guy on the north-pointing blog hasn’t released his full set of revised predictions yet, but it looks like he’s leaning toward 223 being a hard cap due to compression. He says we may never see a state hit 224. He’s also said that he sees about a 2/3 chance that CA will stay at 222 or less. Check the comments for more.
It’s slightly ironic that the directional blog which contains so much information and analysis is so hard to find and even harder to navigate (searching comments to a blog post…)
You definitely have to do a bit of searching. The blog isn’t configured like the forums here (with replies coming sequentially rather than curried under the particular comment . . .). The real irony is that his stuff was posted prolifically here last year so everyone had the information when it was posted over there. No more. No more. 
There’s nothing that I’m aware of in the TOS that prohibits anyone from specifically mentioning Compass or any other source of information (blog, etc.). The TOS does prohibits people from posting links to unverified websites such as blogs and what not.
I think the warnings people received last year were misconstrued to mean you couldn’t mention the name of any such websites, which I believe is incorrect. The further warnings that some posters received were because they discussed specifics of what the moderators warned them about…which is also against the TOS.
I don’t think there’s any problem discussing what information/projections are listed on other sites, just don’t try to post a direct link for others to follow.
If I’m incorrect, I’m sure the mods will tell us so.