lol - thread!
Last year, the CA cutoff was 221. Compass is predicting 222 for this year, but says 221 is still possible, as is 223, though he thinks 221 is more likely than 223.
@DiotimaDM , your son should not have a problem. 218 in PA is still in Art’s range as well, but he is predicting a 219. Let’s hope not… Does is all depend on the number of test takers and their scores for each state? Is there anything else in the mix that determines the cutoff?
My understanding is that it works like so…
States are given a certain number of spots based on each state’s percentage of HS juniors / graduates (not sure which). So if California has 12% of juniors nationwide, then it also gets 12% of the 16,000 Semi-finalist spots.
The state then looks at the scores, and the cutoff is set so it most closely matches the number of spots the state is allowed. So, for example, if a state is allowed 300 NMSF statewide, and 212 would give them 508 SF and 213 would give them 321, then their cutoff is probably going to be 213, and they’ll end up cutting 21 students.
Some of the students won’t complete the app, aren’t citizens, have been suspended, etc., but some will be cut because their grades aren’t good enough. How tough the state is on things like semester Cs will depend on how many spots they have to cut to hit their number.
Note: I am way less of an expert on these things than lots of other posters here, so it’s possible that I don’t have this right.
Also, re: cutoffs - Art says that he doesn’t think there’s much chance at all, anywhere, for a 224. He thinks there might be a natural ceiling somewhere around the 222 / 223 mark. Even so, he says he can’t rule out 224 completely because he only has one year of data to work with, which doesn’t give him enough statistical certainty to say 224 is impossible.
@DiotimaDM you’re spot on!
Curious if anyone knows if a particularly high score works in favor of moving from semi-finalist to finalist status, including in a case of the dreaded semester C.
So are the states actually looking at the potential NMSF’s data and eliminating some from the bunch already because they aren’t citizens, have been suspended, etc. without the students knowing it so that they can then determine a more accurate cutoff for the state? Or is the cutoff established first, and then students drop off because of unfortunate situations?
So no C’s are technically allowed on the transcript? And the high school verifies this?
Never mind. I was going to call @DiotimaDM out on a typo, but she edited it. 
Good luck to all those on the “bubble!”
I don’t think there are hard & fast rules about semester Cs. Having stalked - er, read this board for a couple of years, no student with a D on their transcript has gotten in (that I’m aware of). Some with Cs have, though, and it’s not a cut and dried thing. Some students got knocked out with one C, and some got in with one C. Two Cs is a lot dicier.
If there was an extenuating circumstance (illness, death of sibling / parent) and the GC speaks up for the kid, that can make a difference. But I also think it depends on the individual state and how hard they might have to weed to hit their number.
A kid with one C in State A may well have a different result than a kid with one C in State B. I don’t think we have any data that would allow us to interpret if, say, a 225 plus one C might have a better shot than a 214 plus one C.
Re: typo - yeah, I typoed a number but caught it in editing.
I’m pretty sure that it’s just a series of checks boxes and one thing doesn’t influence another except potentially for the actual NM scholarship money.
The way I understanding it, if you state’s cut off is 221 it doesn’t make any difference if you make 221 or 224. Grades do not mitigate scores and scores to do not mitigate grades, they are looked at separately.
I think we should just keep on this thread. I am trying to fit in a trip to Florida now that it looks good for OOS NMF.
Hi from a last year’s NMF mom. As just mentioned, C’s might be OK in some circumstances/states, but not in others.
Another thing that you need to factor in is that the SAT must be taken and a “qualifying” score be attained. Last year the qualifying score was to meet or exceed the SI that was chosen for commended. It was a little complicated calculating the SI for the SAT, particularly if the old test was taken. Some kids flat out don’t take the SAT or don’t make the qualifying core.
@DiotimaDM Re post #463, I believe in your example, the extra 21 students would not be dropped. I think they would get semifinalist also. They probably have some states with a few too many and some with a bit too few, and in the end it adds up to close to their goal number of 16,000. For example, in the NMS program for 2016 they ended up with 16,227 semifinalists. It varies a bit each year.
Helpful thread. Of course, it doesn’t help the time pass for those on the bubble.
Being on the bubble would be particularly hard, but the entire path from test to scholarship notification is ridiculously long at about 18 months, with several dramatic stops along the way. Just glad it’s all over for one kid though just in time for another to gear up for The PSAT/NMSQT this fall 
My D has 2 semester Cs on her transcript from 1st semester of junior year. It drives me crazy that there isn’t any published criteria on how exactly NMSFs are whittled down to arrive at a state’s allocated number of NMFs.
Is a C grade in an AP class the same as a C grade in a lower level class? Do they just go by the number of C grades, or do other things count as well: overall GPA, difficulty of classes taken, SI score, etc.?
I don’t know - just my mini rant here…
@LMHS73, I sure wish the AP classes with Cs would be ok for NMF. What AP class did your D make the Cs?
You know there are rigorous AP classes and easy AP classes. But still any AP class is harder than a regular class.