NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@LOUKYDAD, Yep. But personally I am first waiting for the crowdsourcing on here (and on Compass Prep) to reveal the cutoffs via the homeschool families and/or guidance counselors from other schools. I find myself checking this page more frequently now; especially because one of D’s prospective schools is a NM sponsor.

I checked the 2017 PSAT cutoff page and had expected all or most state cutoffs to have been revealed on the first day of the leaks. Nope! It took several days for the cutoffs to come in and that was with someone actively compiling it. Sit tight, friends!

Again, if all the cut-offs are confirmed by Aug. 31, that would be amazingly early. So another week before the real action, folks (barring a Jimmy-the-intern disclosure).

Has someone called NMSC to find out when the notices will be sent out to the schools? They are usually pretty candid about disclosing to anyone who calls and asks. Last year it was around 8/22 - 8/25 (can’t recall exactly when) but a phone call can easily confirm whether the same holds for this year.

I just called. Letters go out today!

I’m guessing it will take a while for those bulk rate letters to get to the Houston area, but maybe they’ll hit north Texas sooner. I don’t believe S’s school is one that waits a very long time to notify NMSF once the GCs receive the letters, but just with the size of the school I think it will take them a while.

Continuing the whining about unnecessary delay in this process, why wouldn’t NMSC set up a secure electronic method for notifying schools about NM awards? Obviously if the letters are going out today then NMSC knows who all the NMSFs are. But schools now have to wait on the USPS bulk mail delivery schedule to be able to notify the students? NMSC, come join the rest of us in the 21st century…it’s nice here, I promise!

Time to start stalking the homeschool boards!

We are homeschoolers anxiously waiting for results. Unfortunately our mail delivery is slooow.

This thread is hilarious! You guys are the only other parents I know who are crazy like me about colleges, admissions, nmsd, etc! Thanks for the daily chuckles!

The letters have been mailed??! Woo hoo!! Party on the ledge!

Another ledge-sitter here in Georgia. I tried to go look at last year’s blog posts from Art to see where I should watch the scores begin to be reported and I can’t find that post or comments from 2016. Do any of you who’ve been through this before know where the score reports will start to appear on Art’s site? Will it be in comments to the 2018 National Merit Cut-Off Predictions post? I don’t want to miss out on any of the “fun” over the next week! Thanks!

You won’t, @Emmycat don’t worry. It takes several days for info. to arrive, then a bit more time for dissemination and so forth. It’s a several-day process.

Let me grab my spot on the ledge.

My S very casually mentioned to me yesterday, out of the blue, that he felt there were significantly more kids at his school with his approximate SI this year, than with the same SI last year. Senior Class is roughly 300 students both years. He thought maybe twice as many in what he considered the NMSF “butter zone” compared to last.

Bear in mind, I can assure you that calling his evidence “anecdotal” would be very charitable, but I still thought it interesting. IF his highly suspect guesses are correct, it would not bode well for students in the state that are like him: with an SI exactly 2 higher than last year’s semi finalist cut off.

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@DavidPuddy , don’t jump! Stay on the ledge. Schools can see big swings in NMSF qualifiers from year to year. Last year was on the lower end for my S’s school with 17 NMSF and 16 NMF. Some years the school has 25-26 NMF, some years 14-15. Who knows, maybe it is normal in your S’s school for a lot of students to jump up in SI from sophomore to junior PSAT and what he’s seeing is just a normal progression of students “catching up” to him.

Don’t jump @DavidPuddy. DS is at a HS where having a single NMF out of class of 300+ is an every two or three year event. Never more than one that I have heard of. Several in his circle of friends/classmates took the test last fall, but he is the only one who scored at or above the commended level. I am keeping the faith and trusting in Art’s blog.

Hang in there everyone. We’ll know in a few days so make sure your coping mechanisms are in their upright and locked positions.

For those of us on or near the bubble in high cutoff states, remember that it’s a lot harder for our states to move the full 2 points because we’re already so close to the ceiling.

I’ll lay in a stock of paper bags, brownies and sangria for those of us up here on the ledge. :slight_smile: We can bring in party lights, lawn chairs and sleeping bags and have ourselves a jolly old campout.

Party on @DiotimaDM’s ledge! I will bring a selection of fine Texas BBQ and some nice Shiner beer.

<— I’ll send over the cabana boys to help serve the sangria.

Aargh this is going to be painful. Hoping we can ALL celebrate together soon!

I think there were 17 or 19 NMSF in D18’s HS last year (class size was around 700). Should be at least as many this year.

And … uhh … you can have Italia Ricci deliver my sangria …

Oooh, if we’re making requests, I’d like Benedict Cumberbatch to deliver mine, please.

OK, so it has been a couple hours now, any mail arrive?