NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

Sorry I don’t think it’s good for the schools to say “hey, you might be commend but may or may not make it to NMSF” way too many false hopes there.

@traveler98 I’m sorry, but could you tell me what you mean by “having students who were moving on in the competition.” Is it saying that there are some students at the school who will be NMSF without specifically mentioning who/how many, or is it saying that they will have students with recognition in any form whether it be NMSF or Commended.

@CTMorris1999, the students moving on are the top ~50k PSAT scorers who meet eligibility requirements. Schools are notified in the spring of their students in this ~50k, and asked to verify student info. They are not informed in the spring which students are NMSF or Commended, although of course they will all be at least Commended. In late August NMSC sends letters to the schools to inform them which students from the spring group (if any) are NMSF. This is about ~16k students nationwide. Those letters were sent on Tuesday, and that’s what we’re all currently waiting to hear about. After all the NMSF have been notified and the press release date has arrived, NMSC will then send letters for the remaining ~34k who are Commended. This year that will be in mid September.

@traveler98 Alright thank you! I heard my principal had received notification of something last spring, I just didn’t know what specifically it was.

@3scoutsmom at #840 - Totally agree. It’s even worse in some cases. A good friend informed me this spring that her daughter - class of 2018 - was called in by her GC and told she’ll need to take the SAT because she’s in the running for SF. Mom was very excited about all the scholarship money. Well, turns out the kid has an SI of 211 when MN is likely to be 219 or higher this year. The parents have no clue about cut scores they are just following the advice of the GC. While it’s great to have a school involved with counseling the family at that stage (my kid’s certainly was not doing such), I kinda wish that GC had been a bit more knowledgable. The mom was so excited about the scholarship money and it’s not going to happen. Another reminder of how much more information all of us have than the majority of guidance counselors!

@3scoutsmom and @JBStillFlying, when did your kids know they were in the running for NMSF? I’m betting it was well before even the spring letter sent to the schools, right? I agree the GC messed up in post #844 but what if that kid was at 220 instead of 211? I’ve been very surprised by the number of parents in my own circle who don’t know how NM works, and these are all very involved parents. I’m very aware of NM because I was a finalist myself back in the day. I’ve had a lot of friends give me blank looks when I mention it even though their kids, like mine, have taken the PSAT at least twice and the school makes an effort to inform the parents and students about this opportunity well before the junior PSAT. I’m positive that out of the school’s usual crop of 15-25 NMSF there are at least two or three who are completely unaware of it until they’re informed in the fall, and I think it’s a shame that they missed out on a whole summer to take the SAT and explore schools where they could have amazing scholarships.

Wow, it seems that the importance of NM must be regional–no one talks about it or seems to care here? S has a 221 in NY so he is on the cusp, but no ledge for us since he isn’t interested in the handful of schools that care about this designation. Does being a SF have any value other than perhaps a mention in a press release? I don’t get it…I mean I get it as far as a few posters here that are aiming for the schools that give the big scholarships, but otherwise?

I became informed about the process a couple of years ago, early during soph year for DS18. I think then he was encouraged at school to take the PSAT for practice before the real thing his junior year. The most helpful thing then for me was thumbing through the PSAT student guide on the Nationalmerit.org website. Everything you need to hear is there. This website has been helpful too to check understanding of certain things, but for anyone still confused I would recommend reading the student guide first.

@planner03 no question that if we weren’t content to see DS go to a school that offers the big merit for NMFs, the award itself wouldn’t be nearly as important to us. Something nice on the resume, perhaps a small amount of aid if the student wins one of the $2500 scholarships through NM, but that’s about it.

On the other hand, if full tuition plus at schools like Alabama, Ole Miss, Arizona State, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, UT Dallas, Louisville, and many other schools, sound appealing, then by all means this is very important to students and parents.

It all comes down to what schools your kids are aiming at and whether a $100k or more 4 year scholarship matters to you.

We found out that my D could be a potential NMSF after she took the test her sophomore year. She made a 218 SI and she was called to the principal’s office, along with about 10 other kids. They offered these kids several tutoring sessions to ensure they got top scores on their junior year PSAT.

just to be clear, if I score 219 this year and my state cutoff increases to 219, then I am safe right?

CC in general, and this thread and topic specifically are self selective. So, yes, a National Merit Finalist designation is very important for a subset of people you find posting in a thread like this. I would not call it “regional”; perhaps “regional” is a euphemism for another word you are considering.

It’s understandable that the schools your family is looking at do not provide scholarships based on National Merit criteria, or that the smaller National Merit Scholar award will not impact your college decisions. But for others, these financial issues are part of the selection process.

I will say, National Merit Status can be more than just financial. Upon a selective review of two identical candidates, do you think an admissions officer might use the top .5% of a test taking population as a determining factor?

@kjake2000 yes in that situation you will be a NMSF. Just for clarity, you take the test as a junior but don’t find out the cutoff for your class until September of your senior year. Cutofff for previous class is irrelevant, except for any predictive value.

@planner03, I wouldn’t say it’s just a handful of schools that care about NMF designation. Even top ranked schools that don’t offer merit aid probably do take NMF into account for admissions decisions. Every little bit helps at those schools, right? Sure it’s probably not much of a boost and it likely won’t make up for a weakness elsewhere in the application. But it might be a tiebreaker between two otherwise comparable students.

@traveler98 at #845 - TBH we were erroneously “sure” when we saw her SI in Jan. 2016 (220 in MN). She was one of kids with the new PSAT. Thought “no way could it go higher than 217-218” so were shocked when it hit 219 (same as IL and NY).

It’s different for you guys, thankfully. While some scores may move well beyond expected, no way will you all have the surprises that we had last year. There - I said it again. Hope I didn’t jinx you all LOL.

I learned about NMF here on CC. I followed the progress of @3scoutsmom 's D!16 who is currently at OU on NMF.
I realized NMF would mean that D can graduate debt free and no debt for me ( no college savings).

D is not brilliant or gifted. She is blessed to have a good processing speed, a good memory and most importantly, internal motivation: a good recipe for future NMF
[-O<

"I agree the GC messed up in post #844 but what if that kid was at 220 instead of 211? "

@traveler98 - that would be a different story entirely. Any GC should have known what happened the prior year with Class of 2017. The cut score for MN was 219 (five points higher than under the old test, btw). Had she been 217+ the advice would have made more sense.

I was able to pass along the relevant info. to the parents - that the prior year was 219, that a 211 is definitely commended at minimum, and that they might want to revisit the GC with the cut-score info. to see if the advice would change. Hopefully that helped. They were told (or what they heard is) that she needed to take the SAT to go forward in the competition. She was gearing up for ACT when they decided to switch tracks w/r/t testing. Now, she might have needed the SAT for other reasons or they might have decided that taking both tests was a good idea for her. She just didn’t need to take it for NM consideration.

@JBStillFlying, that’s exactly my point though…there are absolutely students and parents who don’t know anything about NM. For students near the historical state cutoffs, it can’t hurt to have the GCs pass on the spring information and help educate any families who don’t know about the potential opportunities. And what does it hurt if students well below historical cutoffs are informed in the spring that they will be Commended? I do agree completely that the situation you described was a clear mistake on the GC’s part though, planting false hope and making the student think she needed to take the SAT.

@planner03 at #846: Here in the Midwest, where ACT reigns supreme (still, I think), not all schools have the entire Jr. class sit the PSAT so not sure it’s a big deal here either. In MN, a few of the higher-performing districts and most if not all of the private prep’s certainly do. UMN offers the $10,000 Gold and various other scholarships to high performing kids who make NMF - for someone interested in Engineering or Biology or Business (where UMN is highly ranked nationally and those colleges of entry are selective) it definitely makes sense to try for NMF.

My kid opted to attend UChicago and she got enough of a scholarship to substantially offset her work study because UChicago happens to be a college sponsor. Was it commensurate with the hours put in for prepping on Kahn Academy? Yeah, it was. I will add that she had been expecting more based on UChicago’s history with NMF’s but they changed everything mid-stream last year so she was just given the portion that they sponsor through NMSC. It was still worth it.

The big NMF packages will be a life-changer for us. We’re a donut hole family, and our S is thinking about med school, so it’s vital that we get him through undergrad with no debt for him or for us. We toured four of the big money schools, and S found a good fit at two of them. We’d been planning to tour a couple more, but as we continued to research, the fit got better and better at one of the schools (which one should be pretty obvious from my avatar :wink: ).

No, it’s not a super selective school, but it’s a state flagship with a well-regarded honors college and several top-ranked programs. My S will be just fine there, and he’s happy that he got to choose his school without having to worry that we might not be able to afford his favorite.

I grok that NMF doesn’t matter for some people because they’re interested in a different set of schools. More power to 'em! I hope their kids get in, and I hope it’s wonderful.

Us, we hope S makes the cutoff and we thank the Universe on nearly a daily basis that he has this opportunity.