NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@traveler98 - couldn’t agree more with your post #857. GC’s SHOULD be doing just what you say - preferably during sophomore year (then perhaps meeting with families individually to give more specific guidance when the list comes out in spring). The problem is that so many GC’s are completely clueless and/or so focused on getting some kids graduated that they blow this stuff off (or don’t bother to learn about it . . . ). When D17 was a junior, the GC’s cycled through the junior class homerooms passing out the PSAT guide TWO WEEKS prior to the test. (D had already been on Kahn Academy since the beginning of the school year LOL). Her school had one NMSF and two commendeds that year and I"m pretty sure, knowing those other kids, that they could have been NMSF as well had they been more tuned in. Given how much of a big deal our wonderful principal makes of it, it’s very surprising that the kids aren’t better prepared up front.

There are other schools in the Twin Cities which get their kids and families on the ball a lot earlier but those families tend to know about NM already and/or moved to the district due to the level of college prep and planning. Not surprisingly, those schools tend to generate a lot of NMSF’s.

Another benifit of NMSF is it looks very good on outside scholarship applications. Even though D16 accepted OU’s then generous NMF package it’s not a fullride. She was able to get enough in outside merit based scholarships to cover 100% of her remaining expenses for the first two years. I really think it was the NM distincition that tipped the scale in her favor on some of them.

Well said, @DiotimaDM ! (As usual) :slight_smile:

Which two did you like?

We toured U New Mexico, Texas Tech, UT Dallas and OU.

UT Dallas - great STEM school, impressive facilities, mismatch on vibe for my S http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/20541030/#Comment_20541030

OU - Mom’s favorite, S rated it an acceptable third place but the new, reduced NMF offer makes it a no-go http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/20564699#Comment_20564699

Texas Tech - http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/20548698/#Comment_20548698 Wowed us, NMF offer is full cost of attendance, which includes stipends for travel and misc. expenses, but the fit was a little better at…

University of New Mexico - auto admit and guaranteed full ride for NMFs, good honors college, attached med school, good theater program, low cost of living if S moves off campus, S has enough credits that he can do paramedic certification and still double major. http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/university-new-mexico/2004241-nmf-visit-report-scholarship-housing-and-general-info-p1.html

For each of these write ups, you may want to read a few posts / pages past the main one because I added things and/or answered questions as the discussion progressed.

Good to know. My S18 is thinking about all those. He has a 221 score here in MS. His only SAT (1410) was from sophomore year. He took the SAT again yesterday and said it was easy. He said he answered all the questions and had plenty of time and knew all the answers. I said “I hope you put your name at the top”. He thinks and hopes it translates to a 1550 to 1600. (fingers crossed) He scored a 34 first time on the ACT so maybe. He is applying to Harvard, Duke, Vanderbilt and maybe Yale. I leaning toward Texas a & m, UNM, Texas Tech and UCF of course. OU was big up there until recently! Planning on the NMF schools but giving a shot to those Iveys just in case. He is going to get the NHRP award this month so maybe a URM may help.

I’m with you. Lets graduate with no debt!!!

I’m with you. Lets graduate with no debt!!!

Re the big NMF scholarships, note that some like Texas Texh have pretty high GPA requirements (3.5) to maintain the scholarship. As smart as all our NMF kids are, not all will realistically have that high of GPA. A 3.0-3.25 requirement will put less pressure on them, especially for engineering students who won’t have that med school GPA pressure anyway.

@DiotimaDM #864 I looked at these college websites and found it difficult to discern the TT and UNM NMF scholarships you mentioned. Didn’t seem to be full ride. Maybe I missed something? Thanks and good luck to all! (My S15 is a 222 in CA on the ledge as well!)

I have discussed it with my S18. He holds a 4.7ish/4.0 as he has never had a B in his life. But t still should be a factor… College can be fun! GPA’s could drop!

@kevbostic
https://www.depts.ttu.edu/scholarships/NationalMerit.php

UNM combins scholarships to make it full ride
https://scholarship.unm.edu/scholarships/non-resident.html

Who thinks the leaks start tomorrow? I’m less than confident about it since it’s been crickets this weekend. Still hoping!

I think leaks start Tuesday. I also think the numbers will trend higher than Art’s “most likely” predictions. I don’t think a Commended increase of 2 can sustain the relatively conservative predictions he has made across the board.

^ To be clear, very uneducated guesses on both subjects.

Hi Everyone, I have been reading all of your insightful and witty posts. Keeping the faith - don’t let my silence these past days convince you otherwise!

Not a peep from anyone around where I live. Very few neighbors/friends know what I am talking about until I explain nmsf to them. Also, I’m not sure if our high school even announces commended status! I never remember reading anything anywhere about commended students. The nmsf get a spot on the school webpage for a couple of weeks.

This is taking longer that I thought. I know I shouldn’t have expected any differently, but I did!!!

I feel myself slipping from the ledge, @DavidPuddy!

So far S’s school district is closed tomorrow and Tuesday. Mail was actually delivered here yesterday but now that we’re in the rain event I can’t imagine that mail will be getting through for the next few days. I’m looking forward to the distraction of any NMSF leaks and also I’ll be relying on the good people of north and west Texas to try to learn whether S’s 222 is high enough.

Ever the optimist, I think we’ll see cracks Monday or Tuesday, with the deluge starting mid-week. :slight_smile:

I hope Art’s predictions are correct, I’ve read much of what he wrote as to why he thinks they’ll be that way. I agree that the high cut off states (those 220 and up) don’t have much room to go up. I’m just not sure if he’s figured out population shift in his calculations it’s my hope that the increase in the Texas population will help it from going up more than one point. Maybe just wishful thinking…

I just saw a flooded post office on the weather channel in Dickerson TX all I could think of where NM letter that might be in there!

We might hear from homeschoolers on Monday but I doubt we’ll hear anything from a school until Tuesday

Even if Art’s predictions turn out to be generally correct, individual states may vary, as they have in the past.

Agree that lowest end has the most potential to move up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the increase will be less for any particular high cut-off state. And who knows – some states might actually decline. :slight_smile: