NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

You are in a good spot, @kayak24!

@twosmartboys you are welcome.

Ahhhhhh! 223 made it in NJ!! This means 223 may be safe anywhere / everywhere!

Source: Comment at Art’s.

@Northernwolf we are homeschoolers in MN. Mail came and nothing, daughter at a 221. We haven’t heard from anyone else in MN receiving notice today, holding out hope for tomorrow or Wednesday.

For those still waiting on the ledge, you might try googling Homeschooling groups in your city or metro area. If you post on those forums, there’s a chance you might get a response. Our Homeschooling friends here have certainly been helpful, but there are other Homeschooling parents “out there” who might not know about CC - but might have state cut-off intel.

Also, you can search Twitter for #NationalMerit to see if there are any new tweets with that hashtag (someone up-thread did this recently). I did that in 2014 (and 2015) and I did it again just now. No new tweets are showing up yet, but once the high-schoolers start learning their status, they may tweet. Don’t bother searching #NMSF unless you want to learn more about the New Mexico State Fair! :))

I’m thrilled! DS18 is 223 in Texas!! DD15 was one as well. Thank you, fellow Texans!

For those who asked, my estimates were based on a pretty thorough statistical analysis I did a few weeks ago plus the increase in the commended level.

@Kayak24
I don’t think it will happen for him but maybe there is a bigger reason. The funny thing is that his brother missed by 1 point too. His was for a different reason. He took the old test and apparently forgot which sections penalized you for wrong answers. He had the right answer on one question but doubted himself so he erased the answer and left it blank so he wouldn’t lose points. He had it right. He missed by 1 point.

Again, awful @Huskymaniac ! I agree maybe for a bigger reason, though admittedly still holding out hope for your son this year. My Mom always said to trust your first instinct. Although she was right this time, that’s not always true when taking tests. Much luck to your DS in his college process!

I think 221 is safe for Minnesotan.

My twins are both 224 in llliois. Any news in IL?

MN was one of the later states confirmed last year.

@3lovingmom - hopefully tomorrow. IIRC IL came in a couple days before MN in terms of a confirmed cut-off.

If 223 is fine for NJ, that implies (unoffically) that the range is as narrow as 222-223. Unless this year is a drop from last.

so do homeschoolers have the same state cutoff as public school kids? I was under the impression they were on their own cutoff like boarding school kids.

More data from Art’s, but the positive numbers are a couple points higher than the bubble on several. Still, good that news is flowing.

Art is so clutch… 223 in NJ just caught the dub!!! 740 R and 750 M!!

@kjake2000, homeschoolers are not lumped in with boarding school. They are lumped in with public schools and non-boarding privates.

@GreenPoison - thank you for your post. Can you please translate for us that are new? It sounds like you are saying Art made accurate predictions? And 223 SI cutoff in NJ is exactly as predicted? or does “caught the dub” mean something else? And does 740R and 750M represent your SAT score in New Jersey? I am confused.

My S has exact 740 on reading and 750 on Math with SI of 223.

so when are we gonna start stressing about the finalist cut?