NMS cutoff predictions for class of 2018

@amyandscott @ElVaquero @bama2000

Did you get your letters already?

@dangkat5 I have been watching this site and others all day and haven’t seen anything regarding Ohio. I’m waiting along with you.

This year is shaping up to be like last year with several SF’s reported but no hard and fast confirmations (save one) by Monday. Tues was a more informative day and Wed. was crazy. Hopefully the same timing - or even faster - will exist this year.

Art’s blog post seems pretty quiet (activity contained to comments section so far) but guessing he is - or very soon will be - very busy behind the scenes. Mostly he’s about posting confirmed scores (and his sources last year were excellent) as opposed to making “in process” posts the way that CC does. Both will (continue to) be invaluable this week.

My kids know I’m addicted to CC, to the point that they and dh sometimes ask, “so what’s going on on CC today?” I just called DS18, he won’t be home until 9:00 tonight due to fencing, and told him that it’s not “official” but I have a very good source on CC that says 221 will make the cut in TX. You could hear the relief in his voice! he wen’t on to say that this gives him “options” and he’s not so stressed about the McDermott scholarship.

@dangkat5 and @HB_Dad another Ohioan here. Will let you know if I learn anything.

@Winky1 I’m a fellow PA lurker with a 218 DD.

@winky1 @adlgel fellow PA lurker with a 220!

Anything for MN?

Ok then @adlgel and @ramdroid ! We are waiting along with @Kayak24 !! Kayak24, what is your dd’'s si?

@PoppaSmurf @HB_Dad I’ll let you guys know if I hear anything also. Good luck!

@ramdroid I’m thinking you are safe with a 220. 218 was last year’s cutoff and I have a feeling it is going to go up so.I don’t think my DD will make it.

Early I know to say with certainty, but doesn’t it seem like Art’s predictions were in the ball park? Very encouraging from the ledge here in KY with a 219. I should be able to keep the faith till tomorrow at least.

Agreed @LOUKYDAD . I’m feeling fairly optimistic for my D at 223 in CA.

Art’s doing pretty well so far. May his numbers hold, and may the hair on his toes never fall out! (That’s a respectful Hobbit benediction in case anyone thinks I’ve gone round the bend. Not that I haven’t, mind you, but Hobbit toe hair is an actual thing. If Art were a Hobbit, of course, which he almost certainly isn’t. Gee, there seems to be water at the bottom of this hole. I think I’ll stop digging.)

@LOUKYDAD so far no surprises w/r/t Art’s predictions. But it’s early yet. Last year there were a few shocking jumps that Art didn’t predict (nobody did), but then again it was a new test with new, preliminary scales that CollegeBoard kinda messed up. They might have done a partial re-scaling based on the 2016 SAT so hopefully things are a lot more stable this time 'round. Still, there are things baked into this test that make it a very poor tool for delineating stuff like relative performance on the far right side of the curve. Those can’t be removed because they are design issues. Last year’s threads covered this topic in detail.

There’s the understatement of the day. :wink: I think I read every post on that thread last year. So much mystery and speculation and intelligent problem-solving. I was transfixed, even without a dog in the hunt. 'Twas awesome.

@twosmartboys GC

Congrats and best wishes to those still waiting. Now we get to stir over SAT confirming score. Any thoughts?

@Winky1, D has a 221 in PA. Sending very positive thoughts to all of the ledge-dwellers!

@amyandscott Thank you! :smiley: