Roshke, a lot of what you wrote, I agree with. But I have to say that “safeties/likelies” are relative to INDIVIDUAL students.
By the way, I do not believe Oberlin is a safety school and didn’t see it that way on Andison’s list. His list appeared to be all reaches and two matches (WashU and Oberlin) though i can’t say for sure because I truthfully don’t have nearly enough information about him to make an assessment. His list did not seem balanced to me and didn’t have a RANGE or continuium of reach to match to safeties. His list would have made me very nervous if my own child.
While I agree that looking at the rate of acceptance is a crucial piece in weighing someone’s odds at a school, it is not the ONLY piece. One has to look at the SAT range of accepted students, GPA, class rank, and so forth for accepted students. So, for instance, someone who is a val, like my D was, may fit into a higher rate of acceptance for a school, along with the SAT range, and GPA than the admit rate overall. A school that has a 34% admit rate overall, may have a higher admit rate for someone’s whose stats are a a certain level in the range of admitted students for that particular school. Let’s look at something like val alone. A school may admit at a rate of 34% overall but has accepted 52% of vals who apply. If the SATs of the applicant exceed the 75%tile and the avg. GPA and so forth, the selectivity or the admit rate would differ.
Also, while my D had Conn College as a relatively “likely” school on her list, she also had Lehigh which has an admit rate of 48%. It would seem that between the two, she was likely to get in. And truth be told, while her list was made up without the state school, she was offered a free ride and Honors College and free app there and so she truly HAD that going into it but we didn’t consider that school because it was not one she would have applied to otherwise but she COULD attend and it is considered a very good school (has more out of state students than in state students). At Smith, she was getting some very positive vibes from many at the school and while it was a match school, she felt that at Smith, she had better than a typical 50-50 chance at a match school. As well, she had schools on a continuium of selectivity, which is not the case that Andison had.
Her list was:
Yale
Princeton
Brown
Penn
Tufts
Smith
Conn College
Lehigh
UVM’s offer of free ride and Honors College
As well, discussing safeties is just very very relative to each person. I don’t think of certain schools out there as matches or safeties in themselves but ONLY in relation to specific students. It is too difficult to discuss which schools another kid considered safeties in relation to my own kid. I don’t know much about Andison other than he had high SATs, higher I think than my own D, was accomplished on piano, and came from a Boston suburb with a fine public school. That is the only information I am aware of, not to say that is all that is in his profile! (HE LIKELY HAS MANY POSITIVE THINGS ON HIS APP AND SUCH BUT I JUST DON’T KNOW ABOUT THEM, SO AM NOT PASSING ANY JUDGEMENT BECAUSE I HONESTLY DO NOT KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT HIS PROFILE TO EVEN BEGIN TO SAY.)
I had to evaluate what my own kid had which was a very different profile (NOT BETTER but just different kids with different lists of attributes). I don’t post their “numbers”…but an overall profile would include straight A’s (4.0) in hardest curriculum available and went beyond the HS curriculum and also accelerated, several indep. studies, strong in all subjects but particularly noteworthy in math/science (girl), strong SATs and particularly very high in math, val, accomplished on two instruments (piano - 11 yrs., and clarinet - 9 yrs. including on state level and other achievements in music), band and jazz band with achievements, 13 years of dance and in a select troupe, 13 musical theater productions over many years, three varsity sports that she had played her entire life and was accomplished on the state level in them all, one of her sports she also competed in outside of school (training programs and events including on state level), student Senate, Class Council, French club/trips, had initiated two school policies that were adopted by school board, had done indep. studies and an internship in her intended major, held a job serving dinners at a country inn for two years part time, had been a youth coach in one of her sports, had been a paid teacher in tap dance at her studio for children, assistant taught in the elem. school, public high school in rural VT, several significant academic awards, well rounded type but nothing unique, and so on and so forth. There are intangibles like essays and it is not like I have seen the essays of other students to be able to truly say what their chances might be. I had to take my D’s profile and then look at her chances at each school.
She also did an in depth visit at each school, overnights at many, second visits to favorites, and did individual apps to each school and tailored them to specifics for each school in terms of articulating her interest in the school. The same amount of investigation, contacts, and specific interest was shown to each school, not just favorite schools. She interviewed for most schools as well (and does interview well). She had very good recs (some were of the sort of best in 25 years sort of thing) and supplemental recs related to her ECs and also her potential major (internship).
I think her results bore out that her list was appropriate and balanced. Here is what happened:
Yale EA (deferred, then rejected)
Princeton - waitlisted
Brown - accepted
Penn - accepeted and one of 100 Ben Franklin Scholars
Tufts - accepted (double legacy)
Smith - accepted as a Stride Scholar (paid internship, 1 of 50), merit award
Conn College- accepted
Lehigh - accepted, Asa Parker Scholar (substantial merit award)
University of Vermont -accepted, full ride, Honors College (1 of 100)
I never felt she was going to end up with no acceptances. We knew the reaches could not be counted on but felt that between the matches and safeties, she sure was to get into at least one. This list only makes sense in terms of HER odds, not someone else’s.
Andison is not only a terrific kid (though has his own profile which differs from my kid), but his second round of applications was a much more balanced list than his first year’s list and in fact, his results seem to demonstrate that (though we don’t know the affects that came with new information of a GAP year) but overall, he had reaches, matches, and safeties this time and his results were much more positive. I think that had something to do with it. He also chose different schools for the majority of the list.
So, while I agree with the general school of thought on what constitutes a safety, a list is fine tuned on an individual basis. There are no schools that are automatically safeties or matches, for example due to their selectivity rate alone. For instance, I have some clients with very very low stats. Andison’s safeties and my D’s safeties are reaches for these students. I cannot say, oh, they have an acceptance rate over 50%, so they are safeties. Far from it. Way more goes into my evaluation of whether a school is a reach, match, or safety for each student. The acceptance rate is a PART of that evaluation but not the ONLY part. Many factors go into it.
I only shared her case here to explain that evaluating which school is a safety is relative to each student and while the acceptance rate of over 50% is a guideline, the rating of each school involves many factors. Also, my D did have a safety with close to a 50% acceptance rate (not counting her state U which she also had). But she didn’t tack on one safety to a list of reaches. One must look at the whole picture…the whole list and also the whole profile of the student in relation to each school on the list. The acceptance rate for a school varies depending on one’s stats/profile as well.
I think Andison’s story demonstrates many positive things and ONE of these things is how his list on the second round was WAY better and thus, I am not surprised that a student of his level did end up with better results overall with his new list compared to his old list.
Remember, too, that it is too hard to say what is a match or safety for some other person without viewing much more information about that person. As I said, Lehigh was safety for my child (her merit award, which we had no idea they even gave there, shows she did stand out in that pile nad she also got a likely email in early winter from them) but Lehigh, even if it has a 48% admit rate, would be a FAR REACH for some kids I have counseled.
This post is not meant as a comparison whatsoever but is answering roshke’s question about what is a safety and specifically the safeties on my child’s list and how those were chosen. No school gets the stamp of “safety” from me all by itself (nor just by admit rate alone) but ONLY in relation to a particular student. Even then, a very strong student should not have all reaches and one safety. He/she should have two safeties and also should have relatively 40% reaches, 40% matches, and 20% safeties and an overall continuim of range of schools.
Susan