No more chances threads please!

<p>As a conehead fascinated by numbers, I am always amused by eternal “chances” threads on CC, and the random-guess responses they elicit. There is enough data on this site for anyone to run the numbers for themselves, and anyone contemplating admission to Brown should be able to do so:
<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_search_form.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/profiles/member_stat_search_form.html</a></p>

<p>And numbers don’t lie. Here are the median stats of the class of 2011:</p>

<p>Status SAT-M SAT-CR SAT-W GPA
Reject 710 740 740 3.81
Accept 760 760 750 3.93</p>

<p>The difference between a 750 and 760 is what? One correct answer?</p>

<p>The funny thing is that, for a school that supposedly wants free spirits, the best numeric predictor how you would do in the eyes of the adcom is the math score. Which is too bad, because my D is applying to Brown and math is the weakest component of her SAT :-(</p>

<p>To anyone contemplating yet another “chances” thread, please either roll the dice or answer the following question: “do I WANT to apply to Brown”. If either one says yes, go ahead and apply, and spare us the annoyance of reading another “chances” post.</p>

<p>I've been trying to get people to stop posting these threads for years. It'll never happen. Somehow, people think we have magic voodoo to tell them what someone else will think. And guess what-- 90% of these chances people look the same, which is what happens to admissions officers, which is why it's nearly impossible to tell people ANYTHING about whetehr ot not they'll get in.</p>

<p>It's a crap shoot-- if Brown is where you want to be, then apply.</p>

<p>I had a 710 on my math (old test), for what it's worth.</p>

<p>I don't see how your math score would be indicative of your performance at Brown if you make it clear in the application that you'll be focusing on English or Social Sciences...</p>

<p>Umm, yeah I had a 540 math. I'm good at what I'm interested in - which doesn't happen to be math. To the OP I'll be attending Brown in two weeks so there may be hope for your kid if they have something else to offer.</p>

<p>But I do fully support the notion that chances threads should be stopped. I guess it's sometimes nice for me to see what kind of competition I have this year, but in the end that's not what I'm worried about.</p>

<p>totally agree.</p>

<p>Renix:</p>

<p>My math comment was made tongue-in-cheek. When using statistics to substantiate arguments, many people forget that there is a difference between correlation and causation. From a statistical point of view, the only thing that stood out between accepted and rejected students was the math score, hence my comment. Using a similar approach, one can argue that breathing causes death (everyone who breaths dies), or that research causes cancer in rats.</p>

<p>Congratulations on your acceptance, hopefully you find Brown to be everything you hoped for, and then some...</p>

<p>P.S. Your math score does matter even if you are applying to a major that has nothing to do with math. As far as I know, declared major has no impact on admissions decisions. If everyone else has a 760 on math and you have a 540, you need substantial differentiation to compensate. Do you care to elaborate how you overcame the "deficit"?</p>

<p>I'm just a bad mammajamma GroovyGeek, that's all there is to it.</p>

<p>:)</p>

<p>fwiw I'm white, non-athlete (although weightlifting was a hobby I listed), non legacy, not rich.</p>

<p>"From a statistical point of view, the only thing that stood out between accepted and rejected students was the math score, hence my comment."</p>

<p>From a statistical point of view, you need standard errors to make that claim. Without standard errors, looking at two means side by side is meaningless - there may be a more significant difference for one of the other sections than there is for math, even. <em>finishes rant about stats</em></p>

<p>In any case, I am glad that admissions officers look at all of the information available to them when making decisions, regardless of intended major. I want well-rounded students here - Comp Lit majors who can get excited about Neuroscience (I know at least two) and History majors who end up taking Number Theory. Those are my favorite people to be around because my discussions with them allow for the most mutual learning. I probably learn more (a.) re-teaching stuff that I've learned in class to my friends, and (b.) hearing about stuff that they've learned, than I do in my classes.</p>

<p>Also, the Social Sciences DO require a grasp of mathematical concepts. In fact, I wish that many social scientists (and psychologists, actually) weren't so afraid of math, because the field would benefit substantially from improved statistical methods.</p>

<p>I'm not saying I have no interest in math while at college, but my main focus isn't going to be there. If I find courses that struck me as interesting, of course I'd sign up.</p>

<p>
[quote]
From a statistical point of view, you need standard errors to make that claim.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Very fair observation:<br>
Accepted: Q1=715 Q3=780 robust stdev=48 population=28
Rejected: Q1=692 Q3=745 robust stdev=39 population=39</p>

<p>The difference between accept and reject medians is 50, 5x outside the worst-case std error. The difference is real and meaningful. Now, as to causation vs. correlation.... who knows :-)</p>

<p>Guys, people are scared and desperate and want any reassurance they can get. Cut them some slack. If you don't want to read chances threads then don't. </p>

<p>I agreee with you, they should go to the chances forum, but don't get so worked up.</p>