Notre Dame football: Big 10 or Bust?

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Notre Dame
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The #1 high school QB in the nation, Quinn Ewers, from Southlake Carrol HS in Texas, enrolled early at Ohio State. Again, “near total domination”? Too much hyperbole for me. Kids do want to leave the South.

The Big 12 conference exists today and may continue to exist. It’s not being “destroyed.” At least not yet. They can also backfill a few teams from the AAC or wherever.

In terms of the NIL, FBS teams are limited to 85 scholarships per team and the SEC will have 16 teams, not all of which are that spectacular at football and/or basketball, the big two sports, like a Vandy. So, most of the top football and basketball players may skip the SEC, because Bama, Georgia, Auburn, Florida, etc. can only have so many NIL-earning type kids. The 3rd string punter ain’t going to make much, if anything, for these SEC teams. So, HS kids will play elsewhere where they may be earn more NIL money, by starting, not being a bench player for a top SEC team. Bottom line: More money to be made elsewhere than the SEC.

Not everyone wants to be beat up by Bama every year.

Plenty of exposure at Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame, Duke, Virginia, UNC, Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, Oregon, etc. The Top 25 recruiting rankings of next year’s HS Class of 2022 “only” have 10 SEC teams (I’m including Texas and OK) in the Top 25 teams. NIL money hasn’t put every SEC team into the Top 25 teams for next year yet.

Penn State is #1. ND #2. OSU is #4.

This conversation reminds me of the quote (misquote): “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”

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Individuals can & do evaluate situations differently. Where you see hyperbole, I see a need for urgency.

Nevertheless, the Big ten & the Pac 12 have TV rights contracts coming up for renewal. Complacency is unlikely to be rewarded as is forward-thinking action guided by Big ten & Fox modeling studies.

Regarding reports of death as being exaggerated, just ask the Big 12 about its upcoming big decline in TV revenue under the current contract.

Individuals are free to close their eyes to the reality that surrounds them, but Power 5 football conferences have thousands of dependents expecting their leaders to do their jobs. Complacency is not a part of any job description within the Big Ten leadership. Innovation & change is reality & it is here now.

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This is meant only in jest, my love of humor. But I don’t think many people are going around like this:

image

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Although not worthy of a reply, I will note the difference is that the chick has its eyes open while I suspect that some prefer to wear blinders.

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You can’t have all five Power 5 conferences in the top spot. There’s always going to be only one “top dog.” Sometimes that changes. And that’s OK. When the CFP expands, more teams will have access to the playoffs, including teams such as Iowa State and Oklahoma State (Big 12), Oregon, Washington and USC (Pac 12) and so on. As long as they have access and a good revenue stream, they don’t have to be or beat the SEC.

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I think the entire discussion is on many levels disgusting, but you don’t have to be the “top dog” to have a ridiculous amount of money in play.

Contracts are math. How many eyes in what locations generating what revenue from ads. There is also some math around seats, but TV money rules.

It is stupid to think of USC, UCLA and say UW in the Big 10…insane…but if you are doing the math for TV, it has to add value for the conference when negotiating a TV deal. It doesn’t matter if the SEC gets $1Trillion dollars per game…the issue is selling the Big 10 for top dollar.

As much as playoff appearances matter, AD’s are making decisions based on money. You don’t see Vandy saying “we gotta get out of the SEC so we can win”. It’s sad, and is an incredible waste of resources…but it’s the game every school with a D1 football team plays.

1 Like
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Access to the expanded CFP playoffs as proposed is illusory; arguably it is designed to accommodate more SEC teams in the playoffs.

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An agreement between the Pac 12 & the Big Ten is more likely than not.

Population growth has shifted to the South & to the West.

The Pac 12 is handicapped by their time zone. The Pac 12 wants exposure earlier in the day in order to increase revenue.

P.S. Interesting that you mention Vanderbilt. The Vanderbilt AD (athletic director) has the highest salary in the country at well over $3 million per year.

@EyeVeee: I have no problem with massive amounts of money being paid to institutions of higher learning so long as the football players and other athletes & non-athlete students participate in the benefits of the wealth generated by the football teams. Salaries, facilities, and scholarships are paid with football revenue at many universities.

Colleges & universities are businesses that provide incredible benefits to our society & to our economy.

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Teams cannot afford an out-of-conference loss to Notre Dame.

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IMO, the article is laughable. And you were saying to take Paul Finebaum with a grain of salt? At least most college football fans have heard of him. Jake Lynch is who exactly? Some random blogger on the Internet with a dream/fantasy?

Really? And he knows this how? Based on what supporting evidence?

I think we all can agree that: a) last year was an anomaly for everyone, including Penn State football. Also, they started out 0-4, IIRC, and 2) Penn State would rather play ND than Virginia, because they prefer to lose (probable, PSU is predicted to finish behind OSU in the B1G East) than take the “gimme” against UVa and build up their CFP resume? :man_facepalming:

This is what I meant by “internet fantasies.”

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The Big 12 is dead as a Power 5 conference. That leaves 4. Simple math.

The articles regarding conference realignment possibilities are opinion pieces,not factual reporting.

Even the architects of the proposed new 12 team playoff system are a bit unsure of the ramifications. Some are suggesting that the SEC commissioner had a conflict-of-interest when simultaneously working on the expanded playoff proposal and secretly negotiating with Texas & Oklahoma to abandon the Big 12 and to join his conference–the SEC.

Great article:

While I do agree with most of the article, I do not agree with the prediction for the Pac 12 conference. My impression is that the author really does not spend much time thinking about the Pac 12 and its options as the author is clearly focused on the SEC, the Big Ten, and the demise of the ACC.

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Even though this article is now about 2 weeks old, one big 12 AD says the rumors persist.

The article maintains that USC, Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Stanford, & the University of Washington are in talks with the Big Ten.

thespun.com/pac-12/usc/college-football-world-reacts-to-big-ten-usc-rumors

If the 14 team Big Ten adds 6 Pac 12 schools (USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado, & Washington), the expanded 20 team Big Ten conference might look to add 4 more teams to create a 24 team super conference with 4 pods or divisions composed of 6 teams each.

The other 4 teams might come from the ACC. (Georgia Tech, UNC, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame,and, possibly, Duke would be target ACC schools.) The Big Ten wants to gain media coverage & recruiting territory in Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia.

A coast-to-coast super conference covering all mainland time zones could demand a very lucrative TV & media rights deal.

A significant issue with this vision of an expanded super conference is that there is no school from the state of Texas. Texas has several major media markets and Texas is a hotbed of talented recruits.

The other major football state, Florida, would also be without representation in this version of an expanded Big Ten. Sometimes you just can’t have everything, but speculating is fun.

If the noted 6 Pac 12 schools join the Big Ten, the Pac 12 schools should double their current annual payout for TV and media rights. Current Pac 12 payout is about $33 million per year per team. Payouts under a new TV / media rights deal could exceed $70 million per team per year.

Both the Big Ten & Pac 12 TV rights contracts with Fox expire soon. (Big Ten in 2023 & Pac 12 in mid-2024) This facilitates a merger / joint scheduling with few difficulties.

Any deal between the Big Ten & any ACC teams requires serious negotiations regarding contractual rights buyouts.

(The SEC is renegotiating the TV / media rights contract now with Disney ESPN. Looking for $70 to $80 million per team per year payout. Current payout is over $45 million per year per team.)

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Interesting list of schools for Big 12 (twelve) to consider adding after loss of Texas & Oklahoma:

The ten schools are:

BYU, Univ. of Houston, Cincinnati, Boise State, Memphis, SMU, UCF (Central Florida),UConn, Louisiana at Lafayette, & Coastal Carolina.

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Notre Dame’s football schedule. Article asserts that Notre Dame must win all 12 games in order to be in the CFP (college football playoffs).

Opponents are: Toledo, Navy, Purdue, Georgia Tech, Virginia, FSU, Virginia Tech,Stanford,USC, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, & Univ. of North Carolina (UNC). This is an example of a team that plays a coast-to-coast schedule every season. Indicates that a Big Ten coast-to-coast super conference is doable–especially when Pac 12 teams will play half of their schedule in the West each season and any ACC teams which join the Big Ten will play more than half of their schedule in the East each year.

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Historically, that isn’t really true though with respect to ND.

At this point there is a ton of speculation. You seem recognize that but hang your hat on certain pieces of speculation that fit with the narrative that the conferences are in trouble, need to act now and ND must join a conference yesterday.

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The Big Ten and the Pac 12 TV contracts are expiring soon (2023 & 2024).

It is not speculation that the Big Ten has asked Fox sports to create models based on expansion of the Big Ten. Big Ten & Fox want to determine likely contract amounts based on the addition of certain teams.

Although technically speculation, there are too many reports to ignore the rumors that USC & Oregon and other Pac 12 teams are in discussion with the Big Ten. For example:

si.com/college/oregon/football/how-conference-realignment-affects-oregon

Never have I indicated that Notre Dame must join a conference yesterday. But, the money on the new contracts may be too much for even Notre Dame to ignore.

My points regarding the benefits to Notre Dame of joining a conference focus on three points:

  1. Money. Notre Dame should be able to enhance greatly its annual revenue from football. Money pays bills. Universities have bills to pay. Money facilitates the running of a major athletic program relative to the competition and money pays salaries, buys buildings, funds scholarships, etc.

  2. Notre Dame needs an expanded playoff as Notre Dame envisions it. Notre Dame’s AD heads the committee to revamp the college football playoffs, but may have been outsmarted by the SEC commissioner who has a place on the committee. ND wants expanded access to the playoffs which is important for recruiting, revenue, and relevance.

Other conferences now suspect that the CFP expansion may be designed primarily to benefit the SEC & Disney ESPN. Remember, an expanded CFP to 12 teams will destroy the traditional post season college bowl season. The addition of Texas & Oklahoma to the SEC combined with no limit on the number of teams from one conference indicates that in all likelihood at least half of the 12 CFP playoff spots will go to SEC teams. Opening the CFP playoffs to all conferences & teams leaves little room for Notre Dame unless it has a perfect 12-0 undefeated season.

The Big Ten & Pac 12 can join forces & control their own bowl system if unsatisfied with any new CFP arrangement.

  1. Notre Dame may be pushed toward conference membership due to expansion of conferences & due to conferences increasing the required number of games that must be played against other conference members. The prevailing sentiment is that this is likely to harm Notre Dame’s ability to schedule games against top opponents as few, if any,will want to risk losing a non-conference game to a strong opponent such as Notre Dame. The new CFP system places a huge emphasis on national rankings. Any loss will adversely affect a team’s national rankings / standing in the polls.

P.S. Widely rumored that Clemson & FSU want to join the SEC. This would leave Notre Dame as a participant in a weakened ACC.

One writer characterized the strategy of the SEC & Disney ESPN as an attempt at “world domination” of college football. This is possible with the recent US Supreme Court’s neutering of the NCAA combined with the creation of an SEC super conference. Other teams & conferences will continue to exist as second & third tier football programs.

So Notre Dame can stand by & idly watch or Notre Dame can be proactive and investigate its options in order to remain relevant & legitimate. Or Notre Dame can join the SEC.

P.S. Another factor inspiring immediate action by Power 5 football conferences is NIL (name, image, likeness) compensation. Players need exposure. If not in the SEC under the changes now being implemented, player’s NIL may command lesser compensation.

There is an oft repeated saying, now many decades old:

“American by birth, Southern by the grace of God.”

In the world of college football, the word “Southern” may be replaced by “SEC”.

And, almost certainly, the proper spelling of “SEC” will be changed to “$EC”.

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You cannot compare ND’s athletic budget to Iowa’s, Oregon State’s or pretty much any Pac-12 or B1G team. ND has always had a national footprint and their fan base goes well beyond just their students and alumni.

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Not sure that I understand your point regarding budgets. Can you elaborate ?

sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

Chart may not include private universities.

I believe that Notre Dame athletic revenues were almost $170 million while expenses slightly exceeded $150 million during the same reporting period.

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I read this paragraph to mean if ND can travel coast-to-coast, then all the Pac-12 and B1G teams teams can do the same. However, ND’s travel budget does not = Washington State, as but one example.

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Swarbrick, the ND AD, is on the CFP committee. Do you really think an 11-1 ND team would be left out of an expanded 12-team playoff? Again, ND is the most loved and hated team in America. ND draws eyeballs to TV’s. They do NOT have to go undefeated to get into a 12-team playoff.

Now, maybe for the existing 4-team format, yes, they may have to go undefeated. MAY. Lots of 11-1 teams have made the 4-team playoff though.