Why would any school have signed an agreement that bound them to pay all tv revenues they receive for 15 years if they left the conference? Seems beyond crazy.
I have heard there is a $50 million penalty for leaving (buyout basically). Given annual revenues for SEC and Big10 schools, you will make that up pretty quickly by moving.
Will we see any conferences that ask schools to leave?
Going to be a lot of happy and unhappy fans but who will be what is yet to be determined. How many more dominos are going to fall?
I wouldn’t be too quick to “pull the trigger” on Oregon and Washington, if I were the B1G. But they probably will admit them.
Maybe they like the idea of a West Coast pod of 4 teams, but Oregon is a very small media market (though with Nike money) and they’ve been changing football coaches every year or two. So, not a destination job. And although Washington brings the Seattle TV market, neither the football or bball teams have been very good.
I’d poach UNC/Duke or persuade ND and some other team like a Kansas (bball champion) to come.
According to this tweet, B1G is standing pat for now (Oregon and UW aren’t going to be approved) and waiting on a decision from ND:
Here’s some very recent analysis of TV viewership by university.
It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. If anyone can manage to survive as an independent, it is Notre Dame. I can remember when Miami and Penn State were independent. Joining a conference (in Miami’s case they are already on to their 2nd conference) may help out financially but that certainly hasn’t translated into success on the field.
I think Notre Dame will attempt to remain independent as long as possible while simultaneously leveraging their national appeal and massive independent tv contract for special treatment (like a greater than equal percentage of the tv contract) when they do finally join.
And NIL …. wow. So far it has been a nuclear bomb 
. College sports are never going to be the same again.
I would expect the B1G to stand pat at 16 teams unless Notre Dame blinks and joins. If that happens, then I would see three of Colorado, Cal, Washington or Stanford joining.
5 four team pods.
I can see ND joining the big 10 now that they have west coast schools, they want national coverage and they can get that now.
Didn’t Miami win 4-5 national championships as part of the Big East?
Supposedly Big10 is waiting to hear back from Notre Dame before they talk with Washington and Oregon.
So if B1G picks up a bunch of Pac-12 teams, will it divide into western and eastern divisions, with each division playing a regular season mostly in-division, and then meeting for a conference championship in a century-old stadium in Pasadena, CA?
No, Miami did not win 4-5 football national championships while a member of the Big East. The first three in ‘83, ‘87 and ‘89 were as an independent, like Notre Dame.
Miami joined the Big East in ‘91, won the national championship that first year with players recruited and trained in the preceding years while they were still an independent, and then secured a final championship in 2001.
Miami switched to the ACC in 2004 and have yet to ever even be the ACC champion, let alone the national champion again. One could argue that joining the Big East was a significant contributor to their decline.
Beyond financial incentives, one of Miami’s main motivations in joining the Big East and later switching to the ACC was an attempt to raise awareness in and the performance of their basketball team …. playing Duke and UNC regularly was a strong attraction to Miami bolting the Big East for the ACC.
My bad. Was thinking Miami joined the Big East in early 80s rather than 1991. Thanks for the correction.
But even with that, Miami won a title fully inside the Big East. And was a late and controversial flag away from winning another. Since Miami last won a title, there have been about 10 schools to win one? Notre Dame hasn’t won one. Neither have Michigan, Nebraska, Penn State or UCLA. USC won 2 (maybe 1.5) but hasn’t won one in almost 20 years.
Miami fans I know put the blame on coaching. Miami was 13th in average recruiting classes from 2002 to 2021. So the talent was there. Just not results on the field which is on coaches. Most of those recruiting years were in the ACC.
I don’t think joining a conference in and of itself is necessarily detrimental. Penn State last won a title 35 years ago and has 2. They have won the Big10 title a few times.
Notre Dame’s last 3 times on the title stage (2 in playoff and one in BCS) showed they are at least a step below the big dogs. If they join a conference and don’t win a title for a decade, it wouldn’t be the case that being in a conference caused that (though I would expect a lot of Domers to blame it on that–they come up with excuses like nobody’s business).
Notre Dame tends to get over-invited to bowl games. Big10 has similar issue (many schools with large(r) alumni bases in northern climates looking to head to warm climates for winter trips and who tune into TV). Though as part of a conference, rules will apply that determine who gets at least some of those nods which may not be to ND’s favor.
We will see. I think eventually Notre Dame will be in a conference for football. At least assuming conference concentration continues (which at this point it appears it will). But I expect ND will fight it all the way.
The Big Ten stresses the importance of only having schools in the AAU, but I am assuming that there is no way this would cause the conference to not take in Notre Dame…if ND wants to join
Yes, the Big Ten is a real stickler for AAU schools, when it suits the Big 10. Ha! Nebraska was an AAU school when they joined, but fell out of the AAU since. If AAU meant so much to the Big Ten, they would have kicked Nebraska out or at least penalized them somehow. Crickets.
Big Ten has made no bones about bringing in Notre Dame for a bunch of decades and counting without blinking that ND is not an AAU school. From what I hear, if ND says we’d like to join the Big Ten it will be done.
If the Big 12 takes Arizona, ASU, CU and Utah, it will leave Stanford, Cal, Oregon and UW ( all AAU) stranded. Seems like B1G would like a six team west conference but including them would cut into the revenue per team.
Forde listed two issues that could nudge the Fighting Irish toward the Big Ten: the fates of the Atlantic Coast Conference and College Football Playoff.
The ACC doesn’t look to be a long-term option for ND football.
I think the bigger issue for ND (as an independent) could be their ability to continue to schedule quality opponents as leagues reorganize and set requirements for league play. If you look at the ND schedule for the coming fall, the “big” games that could determine rank and playoff contention will be OSU, Clemson, and USC. Overall, their schedule is weaker than anything the SEC or Big 10 schools will face. Without a few good wins each year, ND could see it become nearly impossible to get into the playoffs without an expansion of the current system. The Big 10 might not allow more than 1 game per year for ND.
As a side note… a lot of their TV games are just not that entertaining. Army, Navy, Syracuse, BC…they are not great teams these days. ND playing USC, OSU, Mich, Mich St., Wisc., Iowa, PSU… that’s a compelling league schedule and will add a lot of energy to the fall.
I’m not an ND fan, but they belong in the Big 10.
The current playoff contract ends, I think, after 2026. Some of the CFB talking heads are saying the B1G and SEC are thinking about going to 24 teams each and then having the “national title game” be between their conference champs. The SEC commissioner has spoken publicly about alternative playoff options like this. ND may have its hand forced this time.
Agreed. With the Big10 schools earning over $100M from TV contracts, it’s hard to imagine the ND / NBC windfall will still exist for ND. Sure, they’ll get paid a lot wherever they go, but the difference compared to league options is getting smaller and smaller. The Big 10 now has both geographical and reputational rivalries for ND.
cant they just do a relegation and promotion for the top teams in the NCAA. kind of bored of these realignment conversations and talks of strength of schedule and a certain few getting to decide seeding for a small playoff.