Big 12 looking to add 6 Pac-12 schools.
Big Ten’s supposed wish list is the obvious: The Notre Dame and Stanford duo together. Might boost Big Ten media revenue from $1.3-$1.5B/yr to $1.5B-$1.7B/year. The less obvious is Oregon, because it is a break-even revenue addition at best, and probably a very distant 4th choice is North Carolina. Notre Dame is the obvious one, because it is the only school that equals or enhances Big Ten revenue per team. Stanford is to allow the Big Ten Presidents and Faculty some justification/excuse they are thinking about academics first. All the other teams available decrease the revenue per team from what I can gather.
The academic piece of the equation had already been minimized in the Power 5 (remember when the NU football players sued to be categorized as university employees so they could unionize? Sure they lost that action, but the facts coming out of that case showed how academics were deprioritized for those ‘student’-athletes).
Now with UCLA and USC joining the Big 10 academics have become even less of a factor…it’s difficult to come up with one academic reason for the USC/UCLA move. There’s been a lot written about the likely academic impact of these teams joining the big 10 in the last week, mostly criticism, so folks can google that and read what those in the know think.
The increased travel for USC and UCLA teams alone (unless a large enough number of west coast teams are added to the Big 10 to make a true west coast division) will negatively impact these athletes’ ability to be a student, such as attend class, get enough sleep, etc.
I’m not talking about football, but about sports with many games, often during the week, like basketball, baseball, softball, etc. Somehow, when these west coast teams fly back from Chicago, or Happy Valley, or New Jersey on a week night, I don’t see the students attending class the next day. Of course they had already missed classes on game day, and potentially more days depending if multiple away games against multiple competitors were scheduled.
Even at the schools we are talking about, most student-athletes do not go on to play professionally…it’s best that they get an education and graduate.
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I was being facetious about the ‘justification’, hence the ‘/excuse’. Of course, it is all about money. When Notre Dame looks over at those in-state ‘football powerhouses’ (facetious again) Purdue and Indiana banking $85-$100million/year in media revenues while Notre Dame receives approximately $35million/year from the ACC they have to scratch their head a little and say, “Is this faux independence we’ve conjured up in our minds really worth more than $50-$65m/year?”
A dining hall worker can be both a student and an employee. Perhaps the football players would like the same status?
For the very reasons you’ve stated and on which you elaborated elsewhere in your thread, I’m expecting that the Big Ten will add at least 3 more and possibly 4 more West Coast teams to bring the total conference membership to 20-24 teams. I think those are likely to be Washington, Oregon, and Stanford with UC Berkeley being the potential fourth if they go to 24.
I think that Notre Dame has finally been made an offer they can’t refuse. First, there is the discrepancy in money which you’ve explained. The difference is just enormous and I can’t see how NBC can come up with the dollars fir Notre Dame’s TV contract to bridge the gap. Second, there will be an increasing scheduling problem. As the Big Ten grows larger and larger, traditional ND rivals like USC, Michigan, and Michigan State will have increasing difficulty fitting ND into their schedules. And where there is a conflict, conference games will supersede other interests. Finally, the Big Ten and the SEC seem headed toward 2 super conferences which will include all but 3 of the schools which have won national championships over the past 25 years. They will likely each hold their own playoffs and the winners of those 2 playoffs will then face off for the de facto national championship. Everyone else will be shut out of an opportunity to compete for the national championship.
I can’t see ND putting itself in a position in which it is unable to compete for the NC. The animosity which ND holds toward the Big Ten is rooted in events which go back 100 years. There is no one alive today who was there when those incidents occurred. That’s a long time to carry a grudge. ND would literally be cutting off its nose to spite its face.Never say “never”, but I have to think that cooler heads will prevail.
In general, I agree, but your comment got me to thinking…
When my father played Basketball for an Ivy in 1960, what was his travel schedule like? They played home and away against each team in the league, plus a few other non-conference games. Road games were upwards of 6-7 hours (on the bus). Most of the games were on Friday / Saturday night, which would require at least 2 full days of travel for each game. The trip south included back-to-back nights at Penn and Princeton…which made for a full weekend for sure.
The trip from USC to Rutgers today is arguably easier than going from Penn to Dartmouth in the 1960s. Without 91 in VT, the trip to/from Hanover would be a slow and possibly snowy event. USC and RU are 30 mins from the airport.
In the '80s, when I played in D1, we traveled in vans, occasionally up to 700+ miles.
I’m not saying that all this travel is a good idea, but the wear and tear on athletes hasn’t probably changed that much. What has changed is the 5am workouts year-round and the 2-a-days for months. Travel is probably a welcome break for many of these athletes… a chance to catch up on sleep (as perverse as that sounds).
Notre Dame has already put itself in a position where it can’t compete for the national title. They won their last national title when Reagan was still president. Their reputation and national appeal has helped them get into some important games the last couple of decades, but they really didn’t belong. Since 2000, ND has gone 0-8 in BCS/NY6 bowl games, losing by an average of 20 points/game.
ND’s only chance is to join the Big 10 (or the SEC) and to get at a revenue level with the big boys. If they don’t, I don’t think we will see another ND national title in football in our lifetimes.
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The only good that will come of any of this is getting rid of the awful PAC12 network.
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Worst NCAA D1 travel schedule is probably Hawaii, with a minimum 5 hour plane ride each way.
At one time, Hawaii and Louisiana Tech were in the same conference. The away team when they played had very long travel.
If UCLA and USC are the only west coast teams in the mostly midwest B1G, any in-conference away game other than against each other would mean approximately 4 hour plane rides each way. Not quite as bad as for Hawaii, but close.
I agree with you.
Also, B1G and SEC conferences play or will play 9 conference games, plus a potential conference championship (10th) game. With 16-team or more B1G and SEC conferences, schedules get filled up, so scheduling ND will become a problem due to game capacity constraints.
Also, at some point, if ND remains independent, B1G and SEC teams won’t want to face both a tough conference schedule and also play ND in their pre-conference games. So, ND may be left facing teams like Army, Navy, ACC teams (assuming the ACC exists in the future), Stanford, Big West, etc. And facing those teams every season won’t get you a “seat” in the NC. Fans already think ND doesn’t belong in the NC talk with their currrent “cream puff” scheduling.
ND seems to have three rivalries that should be able to produce games in most years: USC, Stanford, and Navy. Beyond that, it is a matter of convincing B1G or SEC teams to schedule ND as their one strong non-conference opponent, or as one of their two weak non-conference opponents. However, ND could fall into the perception that it is not strong enough to be the strong non-conference opponents (i.e. so that the other team feels that it is not gaining much in strength of schedule perception by beating ND) but not weak enough to be one of the weak non-conference opponents (i.e. so that the other team does not see ND as an easy-enough win).
I understand your points, but the weekend games don’t require students to miss as many classes. The UCLA/USC teams that have many weekday games (e.g., basketball, baseball, softball) are likely to miss more classes now that their travel has increased. It could be better if Big 10 expands even more to take Stanford, Oregon, and Washington, so that they can create a true West division…that could help cut down the travel. I get there probably aren’t many lab science majors on some of these teams even now, but going forward it will be that much more difficult.
College football has changed. The current playoff arrangement ends, I think, after 2026. The SEC commissioner has already openly discussed a playoff that doesn’t include every team/conference. The Big 10 and the SEC (once Texas, OU, USC and UCLA have joined) will far and away be superior to every other conference. It isn’t even a conversation. The Big 10 and the SEC could have an arrangement where their conference champs play for the national title. No one could logically dispute it. They could have their other top teams play in the top tier bowls (SEC #2 plays Big 10 #2, and so on). These 2 conference will be able to monopolize all of the national title/major bowl tv money. Add that in with the superior regular season TV deals that these 2 conferences will possess and everyone else, including ND, will be little league football.
The answer will remain unknown. ND playing USC remains possible, but the B1G is a much tougher conference and USC will have more travel time playing a B1G schedule.
Stanford sure, because they’re in the possibly failing Pac-12-10, but will USC want to face ND, typically the last game of the season before conference championships, in either South Bend or LA after just having played in Rutgers, Maryland, OSU, Michgan, Northwestern, etc.?
I think USC will want an opponent close to home or at home that will be easier to beat, having to play 9 B1G teams. And maybe playing in the B1G championship, in their Utopian outlook, with Lincoln Riley.
I think ND will have a much more difficult time scheduling tough opponents in 2024 and beyond, if they remain independent. Can it be done? Sure, just take a look at OSU’s 2022 schedule, ND opens with OSU opening weekend, but will that type of scheduling continue when there are 16 B1G teams with teams traveling to the West Coast to play UCLA and USC?
The $64 question is, will the likes of OSU, or other NC-caliber teams, want to schedule ND in the future? Nine conference games, 1 conference championship game, 1-2 or even more games to settle the NC, travel time to the West Coast? Plus, they get a bye week too.
Agreeing with both… why would the Big 10 give ND any credibility, if they own half of the playoff system? The Big 10 / SEC could literally make ND an offer they can’t refuse.
There is also the reality of NIL. The Big 10/SEC are going to be professional leagues, with money for everyone. ND will always have money, but it won’t likely have the same reach as the two Super Conferences.
Accordinig to this article:
And I’ve heard $100 Million per team thrown out there with the next B1G TV contract. It’s going to be money or independence for ND.
That was the number used for USC/UCLA. I heard it was closer to $120M when they’re full members.
EDIT: as for SEC vs. Big 10…for the travel discussion above, ND in the Big 10 is a much easier move for all of the non-football teams, with historical rivalries and a history of playing each other in non-conference games… like ice hockey (ND plays in the Big 10 for hockey…they finished 3rd… 2022-23 Big Ten Hockey Standings - Big Ten Conference).
I think the Hawaii football team comes to the mainland, plays 2 games a week apart, but spends the week doing school work and practicing as a guest of a school. The other Mountain west teams get a bye the week after they go to Hawaii. For basketball, they play a bunch of games all at once.
In the grand scheme of things, this will ultimately not matter. If ND stays as an independent, in terms of football, they will be Texas Tech. They will be Oregon State.