Sure, they can maybe schedule TT (Big 12 may add 2-4 teams too) and Oregon State or the like. And let’s say they get two wins against those teams, plus Navy, Army, Stanford and the rest of the cream puffs on their schedule.
But do those wins “move the needle” for CFP and get them to the NC, with the Power 2 conferences placing multiple (or all) teams in the NC, maybe including the Big 12 conference champion, like possibly Cincinnati again?
I’d argue no. There are complaints now that ND plays a weak schedule and then it gets even weaker potentially? ND needs to play some marquee games, like an OSU, Michigan, maybe USC now with Lincoln Riley, etc. Playing 9-10 cream puffs won’t get ND, as an independent, into the NC conversation in 2024 or beyond in my estimation.
Closer geography also means that travel to (and from) other B1G locations is less difficult for ND. Some of them may only need a team bus to go to (no airplane rides). Whereas SEC teams require more airplane rides.
It seems that the brand matters far more than a school’s implied “TV market”. Carriage fees are minimal compared to the money earned by the number of viewers nowadays. That is why I don’t understand how some try to inflate Miami as a prospect for the Big Ten and SEC, when there is no way Miami can justify a $90m-$100m+ addition for the Big Ten or SEC. Why would any Big Ten university vote to include a Miami, which would decrease every university’s own revenue/year? On the other hand, Notre Dame in isolated northwest Indiana that still brings in 4.8 million viewers/week is the only no-brainer Big Ten addition remaining.
The numbers don’t add up for Miami to even be considered by the Big Ten. Lowly Purdue’s football viewership is 1.6 million/week and Indiana University’s is 1.24 million. Miami’s is 1.0 million. Yes, Purdue football has 60% more weekly viewers than Miami and about HALF of Miami’s 2021-22 season viewership (6 million) was a one-off, single non-conference game i.e. everyone dying to watch national powerhouse Alabama’s opening game. Alabama blew out Miami, as expected. Given the supposed size of the Miami market fan loyalty sounds even more pitiful.
Miami has one bowl win in the past 15 seasons…wait for it… the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl. Miami only averages 43,000 in home attendance. TV announcers joke about the empty seats at Miami home games.
Interesting. So ND would take $75M per year to remain independent vs. possibly $100M per year to join the Big 10 / SEC?
That suggests (to me) that Swarbrick is worried that he can’t compete on the field with the leaders in those conferences ('bama, OSU, LSU, PSU, Mich, Texas, OK), but can remain a “winner” by playing Navy and Air Force while keeping themselves in the conversation every year for the playoffs (where they get beat up by the teams they are avoiding).
Better to be 11-1 playing mid-tier competition than to be 9-3 in the Big 10 or SEC.
If they stay independent, even with the rumored new NBC deal, ND will still make substantially less than Nebraska. Nebraska has been a disappointment as of late, but they are a national brand and have multiple national titles since ND’s last national title.
ND has the same odds of winning 9 games as an SEC member as I do of starting at QB for the Kansas City Chiefs this year.
Look, it is obvious where this is all going. Soon, the SEC and Big 10 will have their conference champs play each other for the national title. That will be it. ND is choosing to keep themselves out of the national title picture.
ND is by far the best football program with academics as strong as they are. Well, Michigan is in the conversation but ND has been consistently better. USC may be surging back to prominence. I’d like to see ND join the Big 10 and have that conference challenge the SEC for titles.
As a Texas resident, the Big 12 is my favorite conference and I hope they pick off the Pac-12 and get some remnants from the ACC (for WVU, Cinci and UCF) to place teams in an 8-12 team playoff and see what happens.
My alma mater, Houston, got into the Final Four in hoops two years ago and Elite 8 last year. Success is easier in hoops but a playoff is great for TV.
Notre Dame is 0-8 in BCS/New Years Six bowl games. Lost last 10 major bowl games. Last major bowl win was in 1994 in the Cotton Bowl. Not sure how much success they have had at least recently. Many of those games showed they didn’t belong on the same stage. And without the name/draw, they wouldn’t have been playing in at least 1/2 of those games. Being a part of a conference will make it less likely they will get invited as often.
https://www.si.com/college/2022/01/02/notre-dame-still-hasnt-won-major-bowl-game-since-before-bcs-era#:~:text=Notre%20Dame%20is%20now%200,28–7%20lead%20on%20Saturday.
Not sure that ND joining would significantly help (if at all) the Big10 to challenge the SEC for football titles. At this point, only Ohio State has shown it can compete for titles (and that has been hit or miss in the last 7-10 years). To better compete for titles (even Ohio State), Michigan, Penn St, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State need to get better. Now USC and UCLA can help too. But its something of a challenge in the rich-get-richer system of college football where title contenders typically have the best recruiting classes.
ND fits better into the academics of the Big10 than it does the SEC. I think ND pays more lip service to academics though than is the case in reality. So we shall see. But right now, I would expect the Domers would finish 1-2 places higher in any given division in the Big10 (particularly the west) than they would in any given division in the SEC.
Mississippi State University and University of Mississippi offer regular admission to students (not necessarily athletes) who meet the NCAA minimum academic standards for athletes.
When people talk about admissions standards and athletes, I cannot recall anyone making an issue of athletes being held to a higher admissions standard than the general population of applicants. If nothing else, athletic departments are on the same level there. But the issue some people make is about athletes being held to a higher admissions standard at certain schools than others. I think that is much more stated policy (for alumni/public consumption) than it is real.
And ND is a big one for that. Alums like to hear it (both from the academics side and as an excuse for not being able to compete). Much more marketing than reality though.
OSU and ND currently lead the 2023 football recruiting rankings but there’s time left for Alabama (#11) to significantly move up. Seven of the top twelve are current or future SEC schools. Michigan is #35 but only has twelve recruits. However, its average recruit ranking is on par with UNC which has 15 commitments.
The pool of top players is stronger in the South than the Midwest and East.
Don’t Ole Miss and Miss State basically have open admissions for entering students? What are the lowest ranked Big 10 schools? Nebraska and Iowa?
ND does have some academic standards that are higher than say UT, TAMU, Alabama, LSU and other top football schools and they make the athletes actually attend classes with everyone else. We know several kids that were recruited by top schools and I was shocked that UT had such low standards.
Their admission standards are linked above. Basically the NCAA minimum, although non-athletes have additional options of GPA and ACT/SAT thresholds that they can meet (which may be lower than the NCAA minimum).
This does mean that recruited athletes do not have lower admission standards than the general student population at those schools.