Notre Dame football: Big 10 or Bust?

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Notre Dame
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College sports accounting is a tricky business. At least one study of 19 college sports revealed that just two sports–men’s football & men’s basketball–were profitable. That 2009 Wall Street Journal study is quite dated, however. (A bit surprising, the study found that baseball as well as track & field were the most costly programs due to extensive travel and to scholarships.)

The term “revenue sport” is in need of refinement. While some sports, such as men’s ice hockey,may generate revenue,the overwhelming majority of the approximately 150 college ice hockey programs are not self supporting. (The Univ. of North Dakota, the Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth are the only 2 out of 150 ice hockey programs that generate a profit of a bit over $1 million. Ohio State claims to have lost almost $5 million from ice hockey. Even the University of Vermont showed a loss of about $188,000 from ice hockey.)

Football revenues & men’s basketball revenues tend to support entire athletic departments of division 1 schools.

In 2018-2019, the University of Michigan generated about $198,000,000 in sports revenues–primarily football–and just about $3 million from ice hockey before expenses.

Revenues from TV are almost nothing from ice hockey. As noted in a post above, it is tough to follow the tiny puck on TV.

For many D-I athletic programs, no football means no intercollegiate sports as we know them today due to lack of revenue to support such athletic programs (travel, scholarships, coaches salaries, and other expenses).

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In my first post which started this thread, I noted that Notre Dame will play 3 Pac-12 teams (USC, Cal, & Stanford) and one Big Ten team (Ohio State) this season. If the Big Ten & Pac-12 merge or combine in some fashion which eliminates regular season non-conference games outside of Pac-12 teams and Big Ten teams, then Notre Dame will almost certainly be compelled to join a conference for football.

There are plenty of teams in the two conferences (Pac-12 & Big Ten) combined to assure a huge TV/media rights contract without playing any non-conference regular season games. USC does not need to play Notre Dame, nor does any Big Ten team need to play Notre Dame in order to generate college football’s largest revenue stream.

What happens to Notre Dame’s revenue stream if left with no Pac-12 or Big Ten opponents ?

What happens to independent Notre Dame football if an expanded 12 team playoff system is not adopted ? Notre Dame is counting on this expanded playoff and the Notre Dame AD chairs the committee to expand it, but Pac-12, Big 12, and Big Ten could stop such an expansion.

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We don’t know. But what we do know is that B1G benefits from television deals with the Big Ten Network, FOX and ESPN, leading the conference to higher total revenue and school payouts in recent years. B1G teams received a payout of $54 Million per team.

Since I receive the B1G Network (Fox Sports and ESPN too) as a part of my TV package, I watch hockey on those networks. And I also see TV ads, unfortunately. So, businesses are purchasing network time.

And NHL just got a new TV deal this year:

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I guess I disagree with your premise that a mega conference merger or a scheduling alliance between the Pac-12 and B1G would force ND to join a conference in order to schedule games.

From what I’ve read, a scheduling alliance between the two conferences would be for 2 games each season. That leaves at least one, maybe two, other games that could be scheduled against non-conference opponents.

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Professional ice hockey generates revenue that is paltry compared to SEC & Big Ten football. College ice hockey revenue is minuscule by comparison.

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In my scenario, Pac 12 & Big Ten teams could only play teams in one conference or the other during the regular season. This should enhance the value for TV & media rights.

Under this scenario, there are no non-conference games period during the regular season beyond the teams in the Pac 12 and Big Ten.

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I’m not comparing the TV revenue from the NHL to college football.

Exactly.

Almost nothing? The B1G will be negotiating a new TV contract soon (2023-2024), so don’t hold your breath. NHL just struck a big new deal. I wouldn’t sell college hockey short. Four of the first 5 players chosen in the recent NHL draft were from Michigan. Go Blue!

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I would file your “scenario” under “least likely to happen.”

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No conference is in a battle for college ice hockey teams other than for survival.

At this point, I hope that we can leave ice hockey behind & focus on the rapidly changing landscape of college football & its effect on independent Notre Dame.

My scenario is as likely as any other at this point. And my scenario should enhance the value of both the Big Ten & Pac-12 football TV & media rights. It is mostly about money.

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Before Nick Saban, to use one well-known coach as but one example, competes in a league game (or late season break type game), they will want tune-ups, preseason or gimmes, like Alabama vs. Mercer. Clemson plays South Carolina State. They all schedule a punching dummy.

So, no, I highly doubt any new conference alignment will exclude a non-conference game(s).

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Might I remind members of the forum rules: “Our forum is expected to be a friendly and welcoming place, and one in which members can post without their motives, intelligence, or other personal characteristics being questioned by others."

and

“College Confidential forums exist to discuss college admission and other topics of interest. It is not a place for contentious debate. If you find yourself repeating talking points, it might be time to step away and do something else… If a thread starts to get heated, it might be closed or heavily moderated.”

http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/guidelines

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You have incorrect information on their schedule for this year. They play Ohio State and Cal in 2022.

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I am not sure what football schedule you looked at? It appears you were looking at the 2022 schedule.

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Thank you ! You are right:

Just checked the 2022 Notre Dame football schedule at:

Shows: Sept.3, at Ohio State, Sept. 17, Cal, October 15, Stanford, & November 26, USC.

In 2021, Notre Dame plays Big Ten Purdue & Wisconsin and Pac-12 Stanford & USC.

My point is that Notre Dame plays 4 games per season against Big Ten / Pac 12 opponents which would be gone under my scenario.

P.S. I viewed the Notre Dame football schedule through 2037. For 2035, 2036, & 2037, the only games scheduled so far are the 5 ACC games that Notre Dame is contractually obligated to play.

2033 & 2034 = 5 ACC games plus the Big Ten’s University of Michigan.

2032 = 7 games scheduled, but no Pac 12 or Big Ten opponents.

2031 = 9 games scheduled including one Big Ten (Indiana) opponent.

2030 & 2029 = 8 games scheduled including SEC’s Alabama, but no Pac 12 or Big ten opponents scheduled.

2028 = 8 games scheduled including Big Ten Purdue.

2027 = 8 games scheduled including Big Ten’s Purdue & Michigan State.

2026 = includes 3 Big Ten teams (Purdue, Michigan State, & Wisconsin plus Pac 12 USC).

2025 = Purdue & USC plus SEC’s Arkansas & Texas A&M.

2024 = Purdue plus Pac 12 Stanford & USC.

2023 = Ohio State, USC, & Stanford.

Notre Dame schedules 12 regular season games per year. From 2027 through 2037,Notre Dame has only a partial schedule of 8 or fewer games per year. In 2026 & 2025, Notre Dame has just 10 regular season games scheduled.

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We have zero interest in the Big Ten except the BTN is on my cable system and the Pac12 is NOT. We had home/away football games in 2018-19 (with CU winning both) and another in '23-24 scheduled (I think) but the rest of the sports were never big rivalries. CU no longer has baseball.

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Not sure that I understand. CU-Boulder would probably jump at the chance to join the Big Ten for the increased funds & due to the current uncertainty of the other conferences.

P.S. The Denver Post thinks that CU-Boulder should approach the Big Ten according to a couple of articles published in the past few days.

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Despite all that, no regular season ISU game finished in the top-10 for tv ratings in 2020, even the championship game vs Oklahoma couldn’t crack the top-10. While 2020 was of course a challenging year for ratings, 2019 is not better for ISU and Ok St. If you take out OU and Texas, the rest of the b12 couldn’t even outdraw the American Conference (Cincy, Hou, UCF).

“That’s what I define as relevance”

You can define it however you want, the big-10 is going to look at money, especially the ratings that ISU and OkSt in football games that don’t involve OU or Texas.

I like the Colorado idea for the big ten, especially if it’s with ND and you have an even number of teams, but Clemson leaving the ACC would be highly improbable unless ESPN allowed it. ESPN has a contract with the ACC till 2036, so the ACC won’t unravel anytime soon.

btw, those college hockey numbers are from 2016:

“The U.S. Department of Education Office of Postsecondary Education collects athletics data annually from all institutions with intercollegiate athletics programs that receive funding through federal financial aid programs. Data for 2016 – the latest year available – includes more than 2,000 schools nationwide.”

“then Notre Dame will almost certainly be compelled to join a conference for football.”

The only way ND will be compelled to join a conference in football is if they get left out of the college football playoffs when they felt they should have been in and a conference champion gets in over them. They will most likely join the ACC anyway, since it’s an easier conference than the big-10 and some alums think they have more in common with a few of the ACC colleges, - private, smaller, maybe more academic, Duke, WF, BC e.g.

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All I said is that the teams (Kansas, OK State and Iowa State) are relevant in one or both football and basketball. And I believe they are relevant teams, because they’re nationally ranked and have prominent players and coaches on the national stage, like a Cade Cunningham and a Matt Campbell.

As for TV ratings and the possible invitation into the B1G, I never claimed they were media darlings or that the B1G would want them to join the conference. Maybe the Big 12 survives, maybe it blows up. I don’t know the answer.

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I’ve skimmed this thread, but my guess for a “one off” add to the Big 10 (excluding the whole ND discussion) would be WVU. With TX and OU leaving, their “big games” are going down and interest in the programs is a really tough sell in the Northeast. They are a natural rival of OSU, PSU, and Maryland, and are smack in the middle of the map (sort of?).

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West Virginia University (WVU) is unlikely to be considered by the Big Ten as it is not an AAU member and does not bring a meaningful television market to the Big Ten.

WVU is a likely candidate for the ACC,in my opinion.

The Big Ten has shown interest in Georgia Tech, Virginia, & UNC. All are AAU member schools as are Duke & Pitt. The interest in Georgia Tech stems from the TV market of Atlanta & breaking into new recruiting territory for football players.

The top Big Ten targets are Notre Dame & USC. (While Notre Dame is not an AAU member school, no one–including the Big Ten–questions the superior academic standards of this university.)

The most Big Ten-like school not in the Big Ten may be the University of Washington.

P.S. @EyeVeee: To be clear: The University of Texas & the University of Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 conference, not the Big Ten. The Big Ten conference has the highest payout for each member school at almost $55 million per year. This figure is expected to rise substantially in 2024.

The Big 12 conference payout was far less & is expected to drop to a paltry $9 million per year per school after the departure of Texas & Oklahoma. The Big Ten is the richest conference in the country & the wealth is shared among all members.

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