Overconfidence & Significant Unknowns

Parent Cafe
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To all Parents, we learned the hard way about being overconfident, not understanding the process and thinking smaller high level schools are suitable safety schools. We also learned another thing that extracurriculars mean nothing unless they are a true focal point for the student. Put another way, ten peripheral activities are not as good as one primary activity whether it is sports or playing the violin.

So our son is an honor student with a weighted GPA of over 4.0 and SATs of about 2200 which is the about the 97th percentile, ACT of 32. By all accounts a well above average applicant and to us a top ten school candidate.

The school guidance counselor assured us at least one or two Ivy or Ivy type school would accept him. We thought he was a well rounded candidate. Played sports, student government, etc.

We chose to apply to a group of schools we thought he would be accepted to in a heartbeat. These were Colby, Bowdoin, Bates, Hamilton and Wesleyan. Luckily we did apply to several schools below this tier. We chose to apply to all regular decision. We focused on acceptance rates as our main guide and wrongly assumed his percentile assured acceptance. We really never bothered to look at the actual profile of the accepted students. We also did not realize Colby dropped its essay requirement and that Wesleyan is now test optional, thus more applicants.

He was rejected by all his first choice schools, rejected by Bowdoin, Bates, Wesleyan & Colby and accepted by Hamilton, St. Lawrence. Gettsyburg and Union. We did not interview at any of these schools.

We saw yesterday that Bates and Colby released some statistics about the class of 2019. Applications soared at both schools, more so at Colby due to the application change. What we learned was that he was only a bit better than average at Bates for regular decision. The overall acceptance rate dropped to 21% and regular decision was 17%. 81% were in the top 10% of their class. He was simply no better or not enough to stand out and we just assumed he would walk in.

Only one school would speak to us last week, one of the smaller schools, and basically said when they pick a class it is like painting a picture, the picture has lots of components and it needs balance. The school needs athletes and musicians and poets for the class to be coherent and complete.

So my next point is about extracurricular activities, a laundry list of activities is not as good as one or two where a very high level of achievement is reached. Best to focus where it matters.

We are humbled more than sad but I think next time will pick a friend to compare our daughter to the profile of actual students rather than be blinded as a parent.

So parents step away and get a fresh set of eyes to help.

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At Union, his SAT score is in the top 75th percentile. 22% of entering freshman have GPAs above 3.75 and 70% graduate in the top 10% of their class.

At Hamilton, the cutoff for top 75th percentile of entering freshman SAT scores is 2200. He will be in very good company there. Hamilton is ranked 15th by USNWR for LACs, tied with Colby and Weslyan and 4 spots ahead of Bates.

My friends who went to Union and Hamilton are fiercely loyal to them and have done very well in their careers due to a committed alumni network. I would not view admission to these schools as disappointments.

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I’m sure your son will do great wherever he lands; sorry for the disappointment, but feel that your son is already ahead of the game by the supportive and even-keel tone in your post. The person who was unfortunately most misguiding to your son was his guidance counselor…there is definitely no guarantee for almost anyone to a top tier school, it’s definitely a crap-shoot.

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@Crabby932‌, congratulations to your son on his acceptances! I consider Hamilton a peer of Bowdoin and Wesleyan. I know very successful, proud Hamilton alums.

Admissions are unpredictable, especially at colleges which have gone test optional.

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HS GCs - pretty useless in my experience. How awful for them to “assure” your son like they did. Shame on them.

I had one who said in reference to my S applying to Georgetown - “oh being from this area (metro Chicago) will be a real hook.” Really? Are you freaking kidding me? There aren’t plenty of apps from Chicago? GMAFB.

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Agree with vandyeyes, indeed. This is a sober yet refreshing post to read and one I will share with my daughter. She has that highly focused extracurricular (soccer), good grades in a challenging program, but some of her test scores are very low. We’re sorting through dozens of schools trying to make a list that she is happy with and your perspective is very helpful. Your son should be proud of his accomplishments and I’m sure he will do well in college.

P.S.: From the amount of sales-pitch stuff coming my daughter’s way, I’m convinced colleges simply want to drum up applications as high as humanly possible no matter how wrong a fit it might be. I don’t want my daughter to apply anywhere she hasn’t a) visited, b) been interviewed for, and c) met the coach/learned whether she has a good chance of playing on the team. Considering that set of requirements I’m hoping admission disappointments will be few. But getting to a list where those elements are all in place has already required some unhappiness. :frowning:

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Agree that sadly may HS counselors do not know the current admissions challenges. Butt you have some nice options. Go visit!

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Hamilton is a fabulous school. Congratulations!

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In the end though you did get some nice results. Congratulations!

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Congratulations to your S on all his wonderful acceptances. They are all excellent colleges and in the end he can only go to one, so.

There is no magic high school resume which will guarantee an acceptance at any school.

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Hamilton and Union are both outstanding schools with beautiful campuses and high-caliber academics (Union alum class of '85). Not as familiar with other two, but I’m sure also excellent. Good luck with your decision.

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Crabby, thank you for posting your families experience with college admissions this year. It will be eye opening and educational for parents and students entering the process.

You did your best. You prepared well. It’s is a full time job to read all the college websites and admission criteria. It is a full time job to begin to understand the process and how it might change over a few years at different schools. It is a full time job and most people don’t have the vast amount of knowledge or time to know it all.

You did your best and have some great choices. I think you are being too hard on yourself. Even if you knew more who knows if it would have changed things.

Thanks for posting.

Now, forget about it. You have to forget about it. Get excited with him about his great choices and don’t look back.

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He got into half of the schools he applied to! Thats excellent! And IMO three of the 4 are on par with the ones he didnt get into. Don’t lament, celebrate!

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  1. Interesting to hear that the high school counselor assured you that he would be accepted by an Ivy or Ivy type school. In this day and age, that is just crazy. Harvard's admit rate this year was 5.3% overall and 2.8% for regular decision. With those numbers, nothing is assured for any kids, even those with straight A+
  2. I guess I am fortunate to have friends with older kids who went through this process in the past few years and so have learned their lessons. A valedictorian with 2370 on SAT applied to 12 schools and was accepted at two (and is very happy). A legacy at one of the Ivies with 2380 and above 4.0 and significant achievement in one extracurricular activity rejected. Etc. There are no guarantees. There are hooks. For example: double legacy plus significant financial contributions and you apply early decision. Recruited athlete. Winner or runner up in Intel or other nationally/internationally recognized science competition.
  3. To clarify, it is not enough just to focus on one EC like violin. You actually have to be someone who would get a spot in the school orchestra and/or bring distinction to the university in national or international competitions. Obscure-ish instruments like oboe and bassoon in a year when there happens to be a vacancy in the school orchestra could be the hook. Similarly, being a good high school varsity athlete in and of itself is not a hook. Being a nationally ranked squash player or tennis player or playing a position (goalie, catcher, kicker) that they need is a hook. Being a poet published in the school literary magazine is not the same as being a poet published in a national publication or someone who has won national awards or contests. As one college counselor put it "the schools are looking for kids who will bring distinction to their alma maters by winning Nobel prizes, MacArthur genius awards or will be in a position to donate a lot of money at some point.
  4. For mere mortal high school kids with good grades and good scores and normal extracurriculars, you look at the stats and you know that you have to cast a wide net both in terms of selectivity and geography.
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The admissions process would be less bewildering if students, GC, and parents emphasized the following fact: Stats only tell you you are in the pool of qualified applicants- that’s it, and nothing more. So the student profile, median stats etc are only part of the story, You can’t extrapolate from these numbers and wonder why someone is not accepted if they were above the median, for example. The reason nowadays, you apply to a lot of schools is to improve your chances that you will be a fit as determined by a school. And when you get in to one be happy and grateful. Those schools are interchangeable academically and by reputation - and you can only attend one.

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I have a friend whose son is loving St. Lawrence. It is a great place for an outdoors person.

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Congratulations on great accepts. I’d pick the batch he got over most of what he did not anyways. I love Gettysburg, Hamilton personally, and I had them right there for my kids lists each time. And I know kids who love Union, and the best people I know went to St L, though I know little first hand of either of those schools

Yes, it’s a tough lesson learned for many high stat, high grades kids. I’m seeing this right now in our area. Happens each year, and it’s getting tougher each year as well. Frankly, I don’t think lost a thing with the choices he has, so conagrats, again.

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Thank you all for the kind words. To clarify, he was accepted to only four out of fourteen. He was also rejected by Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, Notre Dame, Wash U, and Emory.

Is it that hard in admissions that a 97% and 98% percentile student can’t haven’t better odds?

Is it a gender thing?

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These schools are all HIGHLY competitive/selective. As has been said many times here, many, many qualified students will be denied, especially when admission numbers are in the single digits in many cases. Did you visit? Demonstrate interest? Interact with your adcomm? Did your child had a unique skill or talent? So, hopefully your child will dust themselves off and smile with the 4 great choices. Congrats. Four out of 14 means they got into FOUR schools. This is a good thing!!

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They say girls have it worse.