<p>So a buddy and I were having lunch and talking about colleges. My D scored in 98th percentile on the ACT. This means that 2% of all kids taking the test scored higher. Pretty good...until you look at the numbers.</p>
<p>I realize that not everyone takes the ACT, but for argument sake, assume that she is in the 98th percentile in the standardized test realm.</p>
<p>So, 3.4 million kids graduate from US high schools nowadays. If 2% of those kids scored higher than her that equals 68,000 kids.</p>
<p>If you use USNWR rankings as a starting point then the top 20 national universities accept roughly 40,000 kids and the top 20 LAC's accept roughly 8,000 kids. That means that after those tippy top schools are off the table, there are still 20,000 kids with better standardized test scores than my D who is in the 98th percentile! To make matters worse, this doesn't include international students!!</p>
<p>After the top 20 national universities, we began to see very large public universities. So from 21-25 you might have another 25,000 acceptances and for the second tier LAC's you can add another 2,000 admissions. So...if you are realistic AND scored higher on the standardized tests than 98% of all kids taking the test, you can begin to look at schools squarely in the dreaded second tier! </p>
<p>Someone PLEASE tell me my methodology is wrong.</p>
<p>Your methodology is wrong. As you yourself say, not all of those 3.4 million kids take the ACT. A significant number take the SATs. And probably an even more significant number don’t take any admissions test at all.</p>
<p>You have to start with the number of students who took the ACT in a given year, not those who graduated from high school.</p>
<p>Yes, but how many are 4-year-college bound (versus going to the military or working or going to 2-year colleges or vocational training)? Start there, not at 3.4 MM kids.</p>
<p>And, of course, remember that many, many smart kids who are 4-year-college board have zero interest in looking at top universities / LAC’s. They go off to state flagships or local colleges and do just fine.</p>
<p>While this chart is for the SAT, it may help you see how many students score at or above the 98th %. I don’t think your analysis is that far off. I do not know if these SAT counts represent unique students or if students are counted each time they sit for the SAT.</p>
<p>Ok, so for argument sake I just assumed my D is in the 98th percentile of ALL kids taking either SAT or ACT. I realize its an assumption.</p>
<p>Second, I looked further and only 2.1 million kids go to college. So that changes the #'s a little. So, 42,000 US kids have higher standardized test scores. Still means that the top 17-18 national universities and LAC’s could theoretically fill all their slots before my D’s stats would be considered. I completely understand that a significant number of top achievers attend schools other than the 20 colleges. I also understand that standardized test scores are only a part of the admissions formula. I’m just saying its pretty sobering to think this scenario is at least plausible for a kid in the 98th percentile…</p>
<p>The top schools do not select their students by choosing the top ACT or SAT scorers. Your methodology is completely unrealistic. The top schools have a complicated matrix and scores are only one aspect of their decision process. Large state schools are more likely to use grades and scores only to select admitted students. As long as your daughter’s grades, recommendations, EC’s and everything else are comparably teh same level as her scores, then she will be in line for admission consideration at some of these schools.</p>
<p>About 1.6 million kids took the ACT. Also consider that not every kid with high test scores has high grades or wants to go to a top 20 school (or can afford it). There are many variables to consider.</p>
<p>You’re thinking that it’s a sprint, but it’s really a hurdle contest. The ACT is only one of a bunch of hurdles that get considered. If she has the grades and the course load, and the recommendations and a talent that really sticks out like writing, singing, acting, sports, then she has a shot at any school. But if she gets tripped up then the other runners will likely pass her by.</p>
<p>I agree with others that the top 5% or so are spread out over thousands of colleges, on the same hand today’s kids seem to point at the same group of colleges which is where the hurdle comes in. A well crafted, researched and thought out list for college apps helps a great deal and the kids somehow manage to sort themselves out between March and August and the log jam feeling ends.</p>
<p>I can assure you that there are some kids who even score above your daughter who do not have top GPA’s, or who refuse to take APs, or any of that rigamarole. Most of them will do fine in college admissions since they will have “high enough” GPAs, but not every smart kid who tests well is fast out of the gate with the studying. A lot of them, or some of them, anyway, will slack for at least one, maybe two years.</p>
<p>"…but not every smart kid who tests well is fast out of the gate with the studying. A lot of them, or some of them, anyway, will slack for at least one, maybe two years."</p>
<p>Agree with poetgrl as I have one who tested at 98th % but ramped up GPA each year from an undistinguished start. Took a while to figure out HS, so his GPA is not commensurate with his SAT score, and he will not be applying to the same schools as those who have both test scores and grades at the 98th %.</p>
<p>There are about 4000 colleges in the country, so if you limit to the top 20, that’s top 0.5% and top 40 would be top 1%. Naturally there’s not room for the top 2% of students.</p>
<p>However, college rankings are are not objective percentiles like ACT scores. They are mostly baloney.</p>
<p>You’re wrong to focus so single-mindedly on standardized test scores–the colleges don’t. You’re also wrong to assume that everyone admitted to the “top 20” research universities and “top 20” LACs will have a higher standardized test score than your daughter. I assume, from the percentiles, that your daughter got a 32 on the ACT. That’s a great score, and it’s good enough, if it’s accompanied by a broader package of outstanding credentials (GPA, class rank, rigor of HS curriculum, ECs, GC and teacher recommendations, essays, etc.), to make her competitive at just about any college in the country. </p>
<p>But I can also tell you that every college in the country will admit some students with ACT scores lower than your daughter’s. Even mighty Harvard reports that, among the 32% of its entering class reporting ACT scores, the middle 50% scores ranged from 31 to 35. The SAT figures are similar. So if we just extrapolate from the ACT numbers, we can say that fully 25% of Harvard’s entering class had ACT scores of 31 or lower–i.e., lower than your daughter’s. Of course, if it wanted to, Harvard could easily fill up its entering class with people scoring 35 or higher (or the SAT equivalent). The fact that they don’t is a sure indication that standardized test scores, on their own, are far less important to them than you imagine, and consequently far less predictive of admission than you imagine.</p>
<p>But if your conclusion from your mathematical exercise is that your daughter needs to look beyond “top 20” colleges, that’s absolutely right. The top 20 are “reaches” for anyone with a 32 ACT, or even anyone with a 36 ACT; a perfect standardized test score doesn’t guarantee admission to these colleges. She should be looking at a broader range of colleges, of varying degrees of selectivity.</p>
<p>I can also tell you that there are many outstanding colleges and universities that don’t make US News’ “top 20” (which I assume is the source you’re using for your calculations, because the US News “top 20” currently doesn’t include any public universities; if it did, the numbers would quickly start to look very different).</p>
<p>You have the wrong premise about the percentile rank also. It does not mean 2% did better. It means she did better than 98%. There is no 100th percentile. The max is 99th percentile.</p>
<p>Your basic info is correct in terms of the number of spots and the number of kids who theoretically got higher scores than ur D. However, the private schools get around this info by saying that they do a “holistic” evaluation of students, which basically allows them to pick kids based on the mix of scores, gpa, special skills, ECs, LORs, development, legacy, athletes, URMs, shoe size, left handedness or whatever. Thus, these schools will dip below the 98% often to take students. This is when students cry “foul” and that it should be a meritocracy based on scores and GPA.
Bottom line is that you need to score a high enough level to show that you were capable of doing the work, which ur D meets, and then that gets tossed out and they make their decisions based on everything else.</p>
<p>The large public schools tend to accept more based purely on scores and class rank. (Or at least the CA UC schools do).</p>
<p>Btw, I know kids who scored top 1% in sat who did not get accepted to top 20 uni and lacs</p>