<p>I wrote this at about 2 in the morning. I had no idea what to write, and in retrospect it was probably stupid but oh well. I got waitlisted. Chicago is my 3rd choice. I’ve never taken a class in economics before, so I also have no idea what I’m talking about in my essay. Also, some of the font is messed up. In the formulas, some of the letters should be the size of things to the power. In this case, I put a carrot (^) to mark it. </p>
<p>Essay #5. Salt, governments, beliefs, and celebrity couples are a few examples of things that can be dissolved. Which do you dissolve, and why? (I misread the original prompt for essay #3 so I changed it to what I thought it said).
DISCLAMER: I have never taken a class in economics before, and most of this economic model is based on assumptions that are hard to back-up with only the Internet as a source of information. Also, this essay might make it seem like I know a lot about celebrities. However, I know next-to-nothing about the lives of these people, so that assumption would be false. Thanks, and enjoy!</p>
<pre><code>If I had to choose one of the above items to dissolve, I would choose celebrity couples. By dissolving their unions, government revenue can increase, the sale of salt can rise dramatically, and new systems of belief are given the spotlight.
Yes, I know it seems unlikely that the hypothetical end of a celebrity couple, lets say Brangelina (Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie), would have any effect, let alone a positive one, on a governmental institution. But if one looks a bit more closely, the two are much more interrelated than one might originally suspect. First of all, single celebrities often have a lot more time on their hands to do things like engage in income-generating work (and hence tax-generating work) like posing in advertisements (denoted by A) or for taking on charitable works (denoted by C). For example, Angelina was made a UNHCR (UN High Commissioner for Refugees) ambassador back in 2001 while she was single, and single celebrities are often much more proactive in campaigns for charitable organizations. This volunteer work helps the government by covering areas of need that might either be politically unpopular or simply unfundable. Since charitable contributions are deductable according to what tax bracket youre in (lets assume that Brad Pitt and Angelina would be in the highest tax bracket), these donations would have a much stronger positive economic effect on the government than a normal persons would. In this model, we will apply all the gains in C towards the total gain (T), since hardly any of it will be tax deductible and it will allow the government to spend money elsewhere. In regards to A, the money earned from the increased advertising would go towards the individuals income tax assessment. Since it is safe to assume that these celebrities will be earning over the $374,000 needed to fall into the top tax bracket, a tax rate of 35% will be applied to all additional income earned for advertising (A^1). Obviously businesses hope to generate money from the advertisements, so another (A^2)(E) can be added (where E is the rate of the excise tax in the state that the company is located in and A^2 is the total profit in sales increases as a result of the advertisement campaign) to the total earning for government. In regards to the sale of tabloid magazines following a break-up, it is safe to assume that sales would go up (effects of the current economic climate cannot be taken into full consideration). If the average price of a tabloid like Star or National Enquirer costs roughly $4, and S denotes sales tax in a given state, then the revenue for the increased sales in magazines (M, as a total, not a percentage) can be denoted as 4SM. Further gains can be made for the government in the unfortunate case of a death of a single celebrity vs. the death of a married celebrity. The inheritance tax (after 2010) should be in the ballpark of 55% for a wealthy celebrity who isnt married. Therefore, the federal government can make an additional 55% of the single celebritys personal fortune (F), which would include the value of all property, life insurance plans, personal savings, and everything else that a well-to-do person owns.
Before the final model for the benefits towards government can be established, however, some other factors must be taken into effect. The costs of divorce, with so much capital at stake, can run at enormously high totals for the government, who has to pay the bill for holding court sessions, hiring judges, et cetera. These costs can be denoted as J (which takes into account court fees that the celebrities involved will pay). Other extraneous issues might apply, such as differences in income tax for married vs. non-married celebrities. However, given that there is disagreement about whether or not a marriage penalty exists, this is not taken into consideration in this model. The final economic model would look like:
</code></pre>
<p>T =C+.35A^1+A^2E+.55F+4SMJ
Dissolving celebrity couples can also have a beneficial effect for the sale of salt, also known as N. Divorce in the lives of celebrities often catches the attention of those who like to spend their nights watching E or Access Hollywood, and people tend to consume what can be generically referred to as comfort food (for instance ice cream or potato chips, which are high in salt content) while watching these shows. Since divorce will lead to a faster rate of consumption of these foods, it is reasonable to assume that divorce will correlate to increases in the sale of salt. The purchase of these foods can be denoted as V, and the rate of divorce can be denoted as D. Since, as argued earlier, single celebrities have more time to work in advertising, increases in the sale of salty goods could increase. This will be denoted by BVD, with B representing the amount of additional time spent doing ads for goods that contain salt. However, celebrities dont always do advertising on purpose. The result of a divorce might leave a celebrity looking for a new spouse, resulting in that celebrity exercising more often. Tabloids might snap photos of the person in question eating a power bar or drinking Gatorade. This might indirectly make observers prone to exercise, which would result in increased consumption of these exercise products. P(G|D)Q will represent a celebrity exercising with something like Gatorade (denoted as G, with the chance of this celebrity being divorced taken into account (again, denoted by D)) and the number of people who will consume these exercise products as Q.
There is a small chance that a divorce will lead to an event designed to hurt the sale of salt. The most obvious event that comes to mind is the creation of a new diet by a celebrity as an effort to get in shape for the dating life while at the same time earning money (think Jenny Craig, only as a result of a divorce). K will represent the event of a celebrity creating a diet, and L will represent the loss of salt sales, which is obviously correlated to the success of the diet. Numerous other factors could be taken into consideration, but in general the following model could be used in a simplified case:
N=VD+BVD+P(G|D)QKLD
Religious beliefs might also gain new attention from the divorce of a celebrity couple (R). This can usually be attained through two different means: either a divorce happening because of a disagreement on religious principles; or a distraught single celebrity finding a new religion to fill the gap left by their former significant others departure. An example for the first case is Elisabeth Moss leaving Fred Armisen because he wasnt a Scientologist. Obviously Scientology was famous well before the split, but it is fair to assume that the split only brought more attention to the religion. These cases will be denoted as P. The second case, the finding of a new religion, occurs rather often as well. Sandra Bernhard joined Kabbalah after a breakup. These cases will be referred to as N. The case of the religion spreading from a celebrity who has found a new belief due to divorce will be denoted as P(I|N), with I representing the number of people who joined the new religion of the celebrity (for example Madonna then converted to Kabbalah as well). However, the case of a celebrity losing all faith in religion and becoming atheist or agnostic (for the purposes of this model these will not be considered a religion) must also be taken into consideration. H will refer this to. The following formula might be applied:
R=P+N+P(I|N)H
It might seem that it is almost impossible to relate the gain to the government from the dissolution of celebrity marriage to both changes in the consumption of salt and to patterns of religious belief. But when the proper economic models are applied, we can argue that a relationship is revealed. Some might be skepticalMark Twain might observe that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. But perhaps a more nuanced and opaque comment from another famous author, Lewis Carrol, is the best way to end this exercise: Contrariwise, if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isnt, it aint. Thats logic.</p>