<p>Any predictions for Ohio National Merit Scholarship cutoff for class of 2012? I found on web cutoff has been between 211 and 215 last several years. It was 212 last year. I think one year it went from 215 to 211, although unusual to drop that much. Any predictions whether it will go up or down? My son scored 210 and I'm nervous but hopeful.</p>
<p>Any state’s score can go up or down a few points in any given year. At this point, no one can predict what any state’s cut-off is going to be. </p>
<p>I know that that is frustrating and it’s a long time till next fall when the cut-offs are announced.</p>
<p>At this point, I would just assume that the score will be too high and proceed from that standpoint. Concentrate on ACT and SAT scores for other opportunities. And, if the cut-off should drop, it will be a nice bonus.</p>
<p>Take the average of the past four years’ cutoffs. Put a +/- 2 points around that average, and I’d bet that 90% of the time the cutoff will be in that spread.</p>
<p>^^^
If that’s the case, then you really only need to do + or - 2 points for the previous year’s cutoff to get 90% of the numbers.</p>
<p>In reality, those that are close to the previous year’s cutoff score can’t predict whether or not they will make it. Unless a student has a 225 or a score that is 6 points higher than the previous year’s cutoff, they really can’t be rather certain of making it.</p>
<p>Thank you for your responses. I understand we really won’t know until next September or so, but I was curious whether anyone had any ideas as to factors that may cause an increase or decrease such as population shift, etc. Or whether there are other scores available on the web for comparison such as class of 2011 vs. 2012 sophomore scores. I’m sure the kids have explored this.</p>
<p>^^ I haven’t run the statistics to do a rigorous analysis. The problem with putting a confidence interval on any given year’s score is that that particular year might just be an outlier.</p>
<p>But you are exactly correct in that there is no way to know for sure if you have made it if you are within a couple point of where it has been in the past. And it drives me absolutely nuts that the cutoffs are not announced any earlier than they are–there is no reason for it. They notify the 50K students in the spring that they get to send their names to two priority schools. That means that they have all the data they need to announce the semi-finalists then. Yet they wait until Sept.–what gives with that?</p>
<p>I think the reason they wait until September is because they want to finish things off with the class of 2011 first- scholarships, etc. Good luck OhioMom- I’m a semifinalist from Ohio, and I understand the wait :)</p>
<p>ilovemyblacklab, thanks and congratulations to you! It’s hard for me to think one more correct answer would probably have put him over, but we’ll see. Lucky for him he is not as anxious as I am about it.</p>