Thanks, @Plotinus, I get it now :).
@PAMom21 , I don’t mean IQ because that doesn’t necessarily correlate with scoring in the top %-my orange people were all hypothetical people who would always score super high on the PSAT, and I was trying to figure out how the addition of purple people would affect results.
@suzyQ7 I think I found it on page 7 here:
http://www.nationalmerit.org/student_guide.pdf
“Using the latest data available, an allocation of
Semifinalists is determined for each state, based on
the state’s percentage of the national total of high
school graduating seniors. For example, the number
of Semifinalists in a state that enrolls approximately
two percent of the nation’s graduating seniors would
be about 320 (2 percent of the 16,000 Semifinalists).”
That is, the number of National Merit Semi-finalists from a given state is proportional to the number of graduating seniors from that state, not to the number of eligible juniors who take the PSAT. All those people who graduate but DON’T take the PSAT help to earn more NMSF awards for the people in the same state who DO take the PSAT.
I haven’t seen the numbers of graduating seniors nationally and by state published in CB’s PSAT reports (although they are probably available somewhere), so it is not so easy to run these numbers.
What this means in simplified terms is that in some states (e.g., Wyoming), the percentage of students who take the PSAT is relatively small, so the percentage of students who take the test and get NMSF is relatively large (e.g., 2% of junior test-takers). In states where a higher percentage of students take the PSAT, the percentage of the students who take the PSAT and also get NMSF is smaller (e.g., in Texas or NYS, about 0.7% of junior test-takers).
In addition, NMSC does not use this formula to determine the number of NMSF’s for geographical regions other than the 50 states or for boarding schools that enroll many students from out of state. In those cases, apparently NMSC just picks numbers out of a hat (or uses a “secret” formula). Too bad if you are a US citizen living in DC or abroad. NMSC does not like you. Any theories why?
@Plotinus Because they can use that group of students as their ‘plug’ so they get their 16K semi-finalists? Because they can’t easily calculate the number of high school students in the international and boarding school group? Because they assume all those kids are wealthy and they want to reduce the number of wealthy kids getting it? All of the above?
edited to add - That said, the commended figure is used across the entire pool (top 96% of test takers disregarding states quotas based on population) to come up with the 50K students that are initially part of the contest. So for the 'Other Selection Units" the proportion of NMF (305) to the total of Commended (1206) + NMF (305) seems to be proportional to the rest. So it doesn’t appear they are harming that group too much… but I might be wrong. Need to look at it more carefully.
What about the DC group? Why is the 2014 selection index for DC 224? What did the DC people do wrong?
What about the expats? Many of these kids are bilingual too so 224 is astronomical. This is a much higher bar than the bar for students living in the 50 states. What does NMSC have against US citizens living abroad?
I thought this was a MERIT scholarship. Applying a completely different formula based on where the student lives is discrimination. How can you discriminate against people based on where they live and then call it MERIT?
Why is 224 for DC astronomical? Many of those kids come from affluent families and attend Sidwell Friends or St. Albans and the like. . .Chelsea Clinton, for instance, was NMSF. Not everyone taking the PSAT is part of the abhorrent DC public school system.
MA is 223 (historically) but that doesn’t surprise me either given the brain pool just in Boston/Cambridge alone. Just look at the number of national universities and LAC’s in the state. You know those profs’ kids are all taking the PSAT.
@Mamelot So we should just exclude anyone from Sidwell Friends from the pool or any other rich smart kids? This is either the national MERIT scholarship, or its not.
P.S. 20%-30% of kids at Sidwell and other hoity toity schools are on financial aid, so they would be part of the wealthy boarding school numbers too. Too bad for FA kids in an expensive private school- they don’t deserve the NMS as much as those 25 kids from Wyoming.
NMC is a private corporation that can choose whatever method - fair or unfair - that it wants for awarding scholarships.
@suzyQ7 forgive me if I’m misunderstanding what you and @Plotinus are discussing here . . . . I was under the impression that you were saying 224 is too high or somehow misrepresentative of the achievement in that area. I don’t think it is. The county surrounding DC is the wealthiest in the nation, and many of those kids attend DC private schools and are going to score pretty dang high on the PSAT. The reason I mentioned Chelsea Clinton is that she’s a graduate of Sidwell Friends.
As for ex-pats, those children include a good number of families of diplomats and/or executives of multi-nationals who are living abroad for the time being. Again, they are going to score pretty high (IMHO).
In both cases you don’t really have a sample that matches the typical high school population in a given state. So it’s not a matter of NMSC having something against kids living abroad. I think it’s more relevant to consider just who those kids are.
Edit/update: I would add that if my kids were attending Sidwell Friends they too would be on FA! Check out the tuition!!!
@Mamelot
I did not explain my objection well. My objection is not that the DC cutoff is high. My objection is that the algorithm for arriving at cutoffs in DC, abroad and elsewhere does not appear to be the same as the algorithm used for the 50 states.
The algorithm used for the 50 states (if I have understood correctly) is:
(number of graduating seniors in the state/number of graduating seniors in the US) x 16k = number of SF awards given to the state
Why isn’t this same algorithm applied in DC and abroad? If it is and the result is 224, then it’s fine with me.
This is what I read in the link above:
“In addition to Semifinalists designated in each
of the 50 states and without affecting the allocation
to any state, Semifinalists are named in several
other selection units that NMSC establishes for the
competition. These units are for students attending
schools in the District of Columbia, schools in
U.S. commonwealths and territories, schools in
other countries that enroll U.S. citizens, and U.S.
boarding schools that enroll a sizable proportion of
their students from outside the state in which the
school is located.”
What algorithm is used to determine the number of awards reserved for these other groups, and why is the algorithm different? Pulling numbers out of a hat?
I don’t think 224 is astronomical for DC. However, since it is high, and since DC is in a separate category, I wonder where the number came from.
However I do think 224 is astronomical for bilingual kids living in non-English speaking countries. I REALLY wonder where this number came from.
Is there any indication that the same basic algorithm is not used? It should be fairly easy to get the total number of graduating seniors from boarding schools and from DC, so I’d suppose the same algorithm is used unless someone has other evidence. Offhand, I don’t know how to get the number of graduating senior US citizens abroad, but NM has been doing this for a long time. Perhaps the State Department or some other agency tracks expats. They certainly could get stats from all the locations that offer the PSAT, but that would omit a lot of schools, I’d expect.
Unfortunately on many levels, DC public schools have only a 60% graduation rate, so many DC students are not counted for purposes of the algorithm. The result would be to allow fewer NMSF (so higher cutoff) in DC than there would be if DC public school students graduated closer to the national average of ~80%.
What @Ynotgo said.
I think the 224 has more to do with the types of families that send their kids to DC private schools or live abroad. Or for that matter, send their kids to boarding school where tuition, room and board $'s rival that of any tippy-top private college. BTW these grad numbers are going to be very very small compared to most state high school grad. numbers. They really are a specialized group of students.
@GMTplus7 did you take the test in October?
I read some where that DC and international cut off is always equal to whatever the highest state cut off is that year.
If you look at past years you can see this is what the cut offs reflect. (http://www.collegeplanningsimplified.com/NationalMerit.html)
I’m guessing they do it like this because there are so few graduates (compared to states).
I don’t really know whether anything is amiss, but I have some questions.
What I found strange is that according to the link above, DC and other extra-50 states selection units do not complete for the same block of 16k NMSF but have a separate block assigned to them. This is my interpretation of the lines:
“In addition to Semifinalists designated in each
of the 50 states and without affecting the allocation
to any state, Semifinalists are named in several
other selection units that NMSC establishes for the
competition.”
The only way that additional SF’s can be named without affecting the allocation to any state is for there to be a SEPARATE, ADDITIONAL POOL of SF awards allocated to these other selection units (DC, territories, expats, boarders, etc).
Ok, how many are these additional awards, and how are they allocated? Is there one block for all the extra-50 state units? Or is there one block for DC, one block for expats, one block for boarders, etc. And what is the formula for determining how many SF designations are available for these other groups?
This is what I meant by “different algorithm”. A lot of questions.
I also find the 224 cutoff for expats difficult to understand. Diplomats’ kids are not good at SAT. International schools are not good at preparing kids for SAT. Many kids are not speaking English a lot of the time. Everything is against expats kids for SAT. Something is missing here. Where is the small pocket of super-performers? Or is it just that fewer SF awards are reserved for expats? I have not found any NMSF data about expats. Anyone have a link?
Of course, NMSC is private and has the right to do whatever it likes with its awards. However, NMSC uses the word “MERIT”. Therefore we have the right to question how these awards reflect the principle of MERIT.
Thanks for the link. So the cutoff "algorithm"outside the 50 states = take the highest state cutoff? I knew it smelled bad.
I don’t see how NMSC can justify using the highest State qualifying score for DC and internationals by the small numbers of students in those areas. The numbers are smaller in Alaska, Delaware, South Dakota, and Wyoming than they are in District of Columbia, and certainly than in all of the world outside the US.
“Oh, sorry Delaware. There are only a few of you so we decided to raise your NMSF cutoff to from 215 to 224.”
Would students from Delaware think this respects the principle of merit?
I have never been a huge fan of the entire system. No matter how a cut is made, there will be disparities across the state. Even within my county in PA, there are HUGE swings from top to bottom. One district often makes national lists for best high schools. And then there is ours. The two are not at all on a level playing field. That said, I do feel as though a national cut would be more fair across the board. But as someone else said, it’s their money, and they can hand it out however they please. My son is a recipient of that money from PA, so I can’t complain. PA’s cut is on the higher side, but my son would not be a NMS living just down the street in MD. It is what it is.
The corporation has ZERO obligation to be fair. What does “merit” even mean anyways? In my opinion, taking a test is not a measure of merit as much as it is of your education, IQ (loosely), parent’s education, and amount of time spent studying. I don’t think NM is trying to shield the fact that it’s not fair.
224 might be high for DC schools but then the private schools there also routinely graduate 10% of their class as NMF’s. Guessing that doesn’t happen in Alaska, Delaware, South Dakota and Wyoming.
The big beef that I thought existed with DC is that NM allows them to roll the commuter and boarding school kids into the DC pool of NM candidates - thus taking them out of their own home districts and putting them in a select pool that practically guarantees that a good # will be NM or close to it. THAT is what hoses the kids in DC public schools who do well on the PSAT. Imagine some impoverished kid graduating from a crappy DC public high school who scored a 205 on the PSAT wishing he/she could have moved to Wyoming!
Kids who grow up on dairy farms in rural upstate NY are directly competing against kids from Stuyyvesant et al who may well have started going to test prep schools or tutors in elementary or middle school. That is fair? This is the situation in many of the high cut-off states–the presence of a population of highly competitive and advantaged students somewhere in the state makes the bar very high for all in the state.