If you do the math using the data from the Annual Report linked above it turns out DC has a higher percentage of NMSFs than Texas. Same applies to “Other Selection Units”, which I would assume is boarding schools and Internationals.
From this link - it looks like last year DC and Internationals got the highest cutoff, but boarders are not spiked out here. However, I called NMS last month and was told that New England and Mid Atlantic boarding school kids were part of Region 1 which includes DC and Internationals. I don’t know what category they put the other (non New England and Mid Atlantic) kids.
http://www.collegeplanningsimplified.com/NationalMerit.html
@Plotinus Agree with you - how did they come up with 57 SF in DC and 305 in “other” ? Its may or may not be based on the number of seniors graduating that year in those locations. We don’t know.
Many of us speculated last year that some of the larger states would fluctuate by a point to adjust the count. For example, maybe a certain cut would allow 1.2% to be NMSF, yet one point higher might drop that all the way to 0.8. Larger states could more easily adjust the final count to 16,000.
@Plotinus Help me understand how this fact could change the distribution this year, since there were a lot more test takers that actually took the test.
“That is, the number of National Merit Semi-finalists from a given state is proportional to the number of graduating seniors from that state, not to the number of eligible juniors who take the PSAT. All those people who graduate but DON’T take the PSAT help to earn more NMSF awards for the people in the same state who DO take the PSAT.”
Is the reverse true -does this mean that if we assume more eligible (lower scoring) juniors took the test this year than in the past (in all states), that there will be LESS NMSF awards to that same state?
West Virginia had 88 NMSF (all in the top 96% since they were all commended). Say this year more kids in West Virginia took the test, would that help or hurt West Virginia?
What are you all going to do with your time as the NMS program fades into obscurity? 
I called TASP this morning. They told me that the emails sent this year were based on PSAT scores taken last year. The representative clarified this statement by saying the emails sent to prospective TASP applicants were based on the PSAT taken in 2014 during our sophomore year.
:))
Who says it’s going to fade into obscurity? It been going strong since 1955. I have one waiting to go from NMSF to NMF this and one that’s prepping for next year’s PSAT and another two years behind that one … I’m enjoying this thread and find it helpful.
@suzyQ7 No, paradoxically the number of NMSF awards your state will get is completely independent of the number of people who took the PSAT.
The number of awards for your state depends upon the percentage of graduating seniors who came from your state.
For example, if 2.4% of graduating seniors in the US came from Virginia high schools, then Virginia will be allocated 2.4% of the available NMSF awards.
It does not matter if 30%, 50% or 100% of the juniors in Virginia took the PSAT. Your state will still get 2.4% of the total number of awards.
If there are 88 awards in Virginia, then some of new kids would have to be among the top 88 junior scorers to affect any of the old kids’ chances of NMSF.
Can anyone tell me when the PSAT scores are coming out? Sorry I’m too lazy to read through the entire discussion to find my answer.
@645Silence
I find this really incredible.
Sounds to me like a mistake or a cover-up,
Has anyone received a TASP invitation who did not take the PSAT in 2014 or who scored badly in 2014?
I just want to let you guys know that I love this thread. So many awesome conspiracy theories against College Board lol.
@Violettathefun january 7
@joeweller don’t forget TASP . . .
Some students earlier in this thread (around pages 38 and 39) mentioned getting the TASP email and having PSAT scores around 189 or 190 last year, so I’m thinking there is a cover-up going on. But anyway, this speculation is really fun!
I also called TASP and was told the same thing. Based on sophomore year scores. But my son only got a 185 last year sooo…
Same here, @packalum, I got the TASP email and I scored a measly 188 last year, but this year I believe I will be in the top 1%.
Y’all niggas need to calm the fuck down. No need to get all horny over this damn insignificant PSAT.
I got a 200 last year, which is wayyyyyyyy below the cutoff for my state.
Well it looks like there are two possibilities:
-
CB released the 2015 PSAT scores to Telluride. Telluride is lying when it says the invitations are based on 2014 sophomore PSAT scores.
-
Telluride has not received the 2015 PSAT scores and sent out TASP invitations based on 2014 sophomore PSAT scores.
Of course I can’t be sure, but I think alternative 1 is more likely. If a Telluride representative admitted to a student that he has on his computer the PSAT scores that CB has not yet released to the student himself, what would happen next??? The student, his parents, his school would demand to know the scores. There would be trouble. There could be lawsuits. It would be much better for the representative to claim that he does not have the scores. This is also difficult for the person on the other end of the line to disprove (unless he did not take the PSAT as a sophomore in 2014).
Now let’s consider alternative 2.
So in mid-December CB tells Telluride CB cannot provide the 2015 PSAT scores until January 7. At that point Telluride decides to send out invitations based on 2014 sophomore PSAT scores.
All those students who did extremely well as juniors but not super-well as sophomores are not going to get an invite.
Any people who did not even take the PSAT as sophomores, but got 230, 235, 240 as juniors, will not get an invite.
As we know, many or most people first learn about TASP from the invites. Those people are not going to apply.
Further, TA invites people who scored 185, 188, 189 and up on their sophomore PSAT’s. How many people is this? This is A LOT of people. As a back of napkin calculation, I would estimate on the order of 10% of sophomores scored at this level. We are looking at 180,000 invitations for 60 spots.
All those 180,000 people who scored 188 or more on their sophomore PSAT’s and DID NOT get a TASP invitation, please raise your hands.
To be honest, I think that if alternative 2 is really true, this is not better for CB or TA. It would mean that the CB delay messed up TASP as well.