<p>I heard that less people took the PSAT this year. Is this true? How much does population affect the index.</p>
<p>I don't know about that. But the commended index is higher than last year so the NMF index should be higher or at least the same as last year.</p>
<p>is it the general trend for the index to go up each year?</p>
<p>i would assume so.</p>
<p>in jersey three years ago it was around 220. somewhere out in the midwest it was like 200. booo.</p>
<p>Nah, it just went up a lot last year. If you compare 1997's and 2004's (not 05), some went up and some went down. Its weird. The commended goes mainly up, but the semifinalist cutoffs stay relatively static. And no, more people took the PSAT this year. 1.45 million to 1.35 million. Check one of the tables. Still, I think there is a decent chance SOME cutoffs will go down. We'll SEE.</p>
<p>Anyone interested can look at the state data reports for 2004 that show ranges, which you can compare to 2003, 2002, etc.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2004_psat_pdf_jr.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2004_psat_pdf_jr.html</a>
<a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2003_psat_pdf_jr.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2003_psat_pdf_jr.html</a>
<a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2002_psat_pdf_jr.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2002_psat_pdf_jr.html</a>
<a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2001_psat_pdf_jr.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2001_psat_pdf_jr.html</a>
<a href="http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2000_psat_pdf.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.collegeboard.com/researchdocs/2000_psat_pdf.html</a></p>
<p>Is it possible to find similar stats on Ap scores?</p>
<p>AP:</p>
<p>The previous years are to the left.</p>
<p>Using these reports is there a way to predict the state semi-finalist selection index?</p>
<p>For example, in Rhode Island the 2003 selection index for semi-finalist was 211 and the average score was 143.1 (2005 graduating seniors). The 2002 selection index for semi-finalist was 213 and the average score was 145.3 (2004 graduating seniors). This year's average score was 137 . . . so what should the expected selection index be?</p>
<p>I dont have adobe acrobat, so I cant view the college board state data reports. Can anyone post New Jersey's stats? thx</p>
<p>yeah it's not working for me either.</p>
<p>maybe the jersey government decided to steal money from the adobe corporation in order to fund renovations for the garden state parkway and now all of our adobe software is useless! noo!!</p>
<p>can anyone help?</p>
<p>The whole report is 13 pages long per state. Let me provide some summary information for the NJ test takers since my Adobe Acrobat works here in RI:</p>
<p>2004 (last November, graduating class of 2006):</p>
<h1>of test takers - 67,344</h1>
<p>Average CR score - 46.5
Average M score - 48.7
Average W score - 50.1
Average total - 145.3</p>
<p>2003 (previous November, graduating class of 2005):
National Merit Semi cut-off - 221</p>
<h1>of test takers - 63,758</h1>
<p>Average CR score - 47.7
Average M score - 48.4
Average W score - 49.5
Average total - 145.6</p>
<p>I didn't list it but in the RI report that jumps out at me is the number of juniors taking the test. In 2004 it was 9,248, in 2003 it was 6,361. This is almost a 50% increase in the number of test takers with the overall average down by 6.1 points from the previous year.</p>
<p>I can't tell from the numbers but I would guess that the NJ cut-off will be about the same, 221, while the RI cut-off may be down from 211 to 208-209.</p>
<p>No, the methods you're using are completely wrong. Illinois' average scores went down from 2002 to 2003 and the total test taking population also went down. YOU CANNOT PREDICT CUTOFFS USING THIS INFORMATION!!! The cutoff went from 214 to 216. The semifinalist cutoffs probably have to do with the number of seniors that are graduating in that state for that year (not taking the PSAT). Can somebody find this information?</p>
<p>Haz,</p>
<p>As I said, there is a lot more data in those documents than my very short summary. I believe that with the information in these reports you can make an 'educated guess' what the cut-off will be because it is supposed to be the top .5% of test takers in a particular state with the commended cut-off as the national number.</p>
<p>Using the numbers, in RI they expanded the eligible pool by almost 50% so I would expect the number of students that earn NMS will increase a bit. With the average going down over 6 points I would also expect the NMS cut-off to go down a bit. As the cut-off number goes down in a particular state the mix between Commended and NMS changes. So I would expect that instead of 2:1 Commended:NMS in RI it may change to something like 3:2. Again, all just educated guesses nothing exact.</p>
<p>I am not sure what information you are looking for. Is it the number of graduating seniors in a particular state? If so, the PSAT numbers for junior year should be a fairly good approximation since you have to take the PSAT to qualify for NMS.</p>
<p>Don't look at the averages. Look at the 75-80 and 70-74 score ranges. Using Illinois as an example, in 2003 it is apparent more people score higher in those ranges in math and writing compared to 2002, which also helps to explain the rise in the cutoffs.</p>
<p>Looking at 2004's (for the class of 2006) data for Illinois, the significant increase of people scoring in the 70-80 ranges will probably mean an increase in Illinois cutoffs to at least 217, more likely 218.</p>
<p>Even this isn't completely foolproof. I think Arizona had a large increase in the people in these score ranges and their cutoff went down. </p>
<p>The funny thing is, all of these theories make perfect sense. The problem is, they just don't seem to pan out.</p>
<p>I look at the percentages rather than the numbers, which is a better indicator.</p>
<p>Just looking at Arizona data I guess the cutoff went down by one point?</p>
<p>And looking at the 2004 data, it looks like there would probably only be a +1 change at max.</p>
<p>Hec,
Some of these numbers are odd. For example, in PA 5,000 more juniors took the test this year. In 2003 approx. 2750 scored above 700 in writing. This year approx 4300 scored over 700 in writing. Of the 5,000 new testers, 1550 of them were high writing scorers, more than 30%. I guess since most students who take PSAT are collegebound, it would make sense that they do fairly well, but 30 per cent of new testers being high scorers seems high to me. Any guess of PA Hec?</p>