PSAT! will the national merit scholarship cutoffs be lower?

Test Preparation
41

The wait is over, sort of.

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf

I’m glad 99% S.I came out to be ** 205 ** in the range I posted before otherwise we would have so much conflicting info!

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19173991/#Comment_19173991

I can’t tell if this 205 is 99% “national” or “user” percentiles, LoL.

Looking good to 215+ scorers,

42

@payn4ward Do you think my 211 in Illinois has any chance? In the past it has been a 215. We know that a 214 is the 99+ and Illinois has never been in the 99+. Sorry if I’m being delusional!

43

@Jay12321 You should assume that a percentile score that has been sufficient in the past has a good chance of being sufficient in the future.

In 2014 the 99th percentile began at 213 and the Illinois cutoff was 215, so in fact you did have to be just within the 99th percentile. If the College Board chart is to be believed, I would estimate that the Illinois cutoff would be about 207 or 208. These are just guesses, but they are good, educated guesses. So if their chart is correct is correct, you should have it.

44

@Jay12321 As you know, Dave_N predicted 213 in the other thread so we know you will be very close and no one can know for certain until September as there is always +2/-2 variation between years.

45 
2015 |  2014 | |    # Wrongs |  | R | W |    M          |           | | | | | | |   2014    |   2015    |   |   # Wrongs    | R | W |   M

** 228 ** | 240 | | 0,1, | 0.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 240 ** | 228 | | 0, | 0.0 | 0, | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 228 ** | 236 | | 1,2, | 0.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 240 ** | 228 | | 1, | 0.0 | 1, | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 227 ** | 233 | | 2,3, | 0.5 | 0.1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 238 ** | 226 | | 1,2 | 1.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 227 ** | 229 | | 3,4, | 0.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 237 ** | 226 | | 2, | 1.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 226 ** | 238 | | 1,2, | 1.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 236 ** | 228 | | 1,2 | 2.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 226 ** | 234 | | 2,3, | 1.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 235 ** | 224 | | 3, | 2.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 226 ** | 234 | | 2,3, | 1.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 234 ** | 226 | | 3, | 3.0 | 3, | 37.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 226 ** | 228 | | 3,4, | 1.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 234 ** | 226 | | 2,3 | 3.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 226 ** | 228 | | 4,5, | 1.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 4 | 37.0 | | | ** 233 ** | 224 | | 2,3 | 3.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 226 ** | 227 | | 5,6, | 1.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 37.0 | | | ** 233 ** | 225 | | 2,3 | 3.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 225 ** | 228 | | 6,7, | 1.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 36.5 | | | ** 233 ** | 225 | | 3, | 3.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 225 ** | 231 | | 3,4, | 1.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 232 ** | 224 | | 4, | 4.0 | 4, | 36.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 225 ** | 227 | | 4,5, | 1.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 232 ** | 224 | | 4, | 4.0 | 3, | 37.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 225 ** | 227 | | 4,5, | 1.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 231 ** | 225 | | 3,4 | 4.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 225 ** | 223 | | 5,6, | 1.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 231 ** | 224 | | 5, | 4.5 | 3, | 38.5 | 1 | 39.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 224 ** | 233 | | 2,3, | 2.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 230 ** | 224 | | 5, | 5.0 | 5, | 35.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 229 | | 3,4, | 2.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 230 ** | 222 | | 4, | 5.0 | 2, | 38.5 | 2 | 36.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 230 | | 4,5, | 2.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 230 ** | 225 | | 4, | 5.0 | 2, | 38.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 224 ** | 226 | | 5,6, | 2.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 230 ** | 222 | | 3,4 | 5.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 3 | 35.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 222 | | 7,8, | 2.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 7 | 36.0 | | | ** 229 ** | 227 | | 6,7 | 5.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 3 | 34.5
** 224 ** | 232 | | 3,4, | 2.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 222 | | 6, | 6.0 | 6, | 34.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 231 | | 4,5, | 2.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 220 | | 4,5 | 6.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 4 | 34.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 226 | | 5,6, | 2.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 4 | 37.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 226 | | 4,5 | 6.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 4 | 34.0
** 224 ** | 225 | | 6,7, | 2.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 5 | 37.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 222 | | 6, | 6.0 | 5, | 35.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 224 ** | 220 | | 6,7, | 2.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 4 | 37.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 226 | | 4, | 6.0 | 3, | 36.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 224 ** | 219 | | 7,8, | 2.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 37.0 | | | ** 228 ** | 223 | | 5, | 6.0 | 2, | 38.5 | 1 | 39.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 223 ** | 221 | | 8,9, | 2.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 8 | 35.5 | | | ** 227 ** | 220 | | 5, | 6.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 3 | 35.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 223 ** | 223 | | 6,7, | 2.5 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 227 ** | 226 | | 5,6 | 6.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 5 | 33.5
** 223 ** | 219 | | 7,8, | 2.5 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 227 ** | 222 | | 5, | 6.5 | 3, | 37.0 | 2 | 36.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 223 ** | 223 | | 4,5, | 2.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 227 ** | 225 | | 5, | 6.5 | 3, | 37.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 223 ** | 222 | | 5,6, | 2.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 226 ** | 220 | | 7, | 7.0 | 6, | 34.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 223 ** | 225 | | 8,9, | 2.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 226 ** | 224 | | 6, | 7.0 | 5, | 35.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 223 ** | 221 | | 6,7, | 2.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 226 ** | 222 | | 4,5 | 7.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 3 | 35.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 222 ** | 230 | | 3,4, | 3.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 3 | 35 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 226 ** | 223 | | 4,5 | 7.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5 | 2 | 36.5
** 222 ** | 226 | | 4,5, | 3.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 226 ** | 224 | | 5,6 | 7.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 4 | 34.0
** 222 ** | 225 | | 6,7, | 3.0 | 6,7 | 35 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 226 ** | 222 | | 5, | 7.0 | 2, | 38.5 | 2 | 36.5 | 1 | 38.0
** 222 ** | 221 | | 7,8, | 3.0 | 6,7 | 35 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 224 | | 6, | 7.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 4 | 34.0
** 222 ** | 221 | | 9,10, | 3.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | 9 | 35.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 218 | | 6, | 7.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 4 | 34.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 222 ** | 228 | | 10,11 | 3.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 38.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 220 | | 6, | 7.5 | 4, | 36.0 | 2 | 36.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 222 ** | 224 | | 6,7, | 3.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 38.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 223 | | 6, | 7.5 | 4, | 36.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 222 ** | 222 | | 8,9, | 3.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 4 | 37.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 222 | | 7, | 7.5 | 7, | 32.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 222 ** | 217 | | 9,10, | 3.0 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 37.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 218 | | 6,7 | 7.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 5 | 32.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 222 ** | 220 | | 8,9, | 3.0 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 36.0 | | | ** 225 ** | 225 | | 6,7 | 7.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 6 | 32.5
** 222 ** | 220 | | 6,7, | 3.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 4 | 37.0 | | | ** 224 ** | 220 | | 8, | 8.0 | 8, | 32.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 222 ** | 219 | | 7,8, | 3.0 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 5 | 37.0 | | | ** 224 ** | 222 | | 7, | 8.0 | 6, | 34.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 221 ** | 218 | | 10,11 | 3.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 0 | 38 | X | 34.5 | | | ** 224 ** | 220 | | 5,6 | 8.0 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 4 | 34.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 221 ** | 221 | | 7,8, | 3.5 | 4,5 | 36 | 1 | 37 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 224 ** | 222 | | 7, | 8.0 | 5, | 35.0 | 1 | 39.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 221 ** | 217 | | 8,9, | 3.5 | 4,5 | 36 | 1 | 37 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 220 | | 9, | 8.5 | 9, | 31.5 | 0 | 40.0 | 0 | 40.0
** 221 ** | 217 | | 6,7, | 3.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 2 | 36 | 2 | 37.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 216 | | 6,7 | 8.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 6 | 31.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 221 ** | 216 | | 7,8, | 3.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 2 | 36 | 3 | 37.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 222 | | 7, | 8.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 1 | 39.0 | 4 | 34.0
** 221 ** | 218 | | 8,9, | 3.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 2 | 36 | 6 | 36.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 221 | | 6, | 8.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 2 | 36.5 | 2 | 36.5
** 221 ** | 215 | | 10,11 | 3.5 | 4,5 | 36 | 0 | 38 | 6 | 36.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 220 | | 6, | 8.5 | 2, | 38.5 | 3 | 35.0 | 1 | 38.0
** 221 ** | 217 | | 9,10, | 3.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 1 | 37 | 6 | 36.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 220 | | 7, | 8.5 | 5, | 35.0 | 2 | 36.5 | 0 | 40.0
** 221 ** | 219 | | 9,10, | 3.5 | 0,1 | 38 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 35.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 223 | | 7, | 8.5 | 5, | 35.0 | 0 | 40.0 | 2 | 36.5
** 221 ** | 215 | | 10,11 | 3.5 | 2,3 | 37 | 0 | 38 | 8 | 35.5 | | | ** 223 ** | 221 | | 5,6 | 8.5 | 0,1 | 40.0 | 3 | 35.0 | 2 | 36.5

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** 2015 vs 2014 Scores only based on the number of errors in each section **
are shown above.
The scores fluctuate depending on which section the errors are between the two years.

47

If the juniors took the two tests and made the same number of errors in each section in 2014 and 2015 tests, above will be their scores.
We can see that the kids scoring above 225+ (2015) will be the same kids who score high, 227+ in 2014.
Scores fluctuate because writing errors are very costly and math errors are cheap. Perfect EBRW score kids get a boost even with math errors as many as 7-8.
In the middle, between 221 - 222 (2015) there is a crossover from the trend in which 2014 scores are higher than 2015 scores with the same # of errors.
Population of kids scoring around 221 (2015) would have scored between 215 - 221 in 2014 and not made nmsf in tippy toppy states. Their number-of-error-based “concordance” 2014 scores are lower than 2015 scores.