Reading Tea Leaves and Statistics

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Virginia
1

<p>S was waitlisted. He was crushed. Enough said on that front. Here are some statistics. Looking for methodolgy and likely scenarios this year. All comments welcome.</p>

<p>2008
Total number of applications: 18,531
Total number of VA apps: 7,355
Total number of OOS apps: 11,176
Overall offer rate: 35.7% (6,628 total offers)
Overall VA offer rate: 45.8% (3,372 offers)
Overall OOS offer rate: 29% (3,256 offers)
Enrollment goal: 3,170 first-year students with roughly 2,092 being from VA</p>

<p>2009
Total number of applications: 21,839
Total number of VA apps: 7,663
Total number of OOS apps: 13,764
Overall offers: 6,331 total offers (28.9%)
Total VA offers: 3,276 offers (42.7%)
Total OOS offers: 3,055 offers (22%)
Enrollment goal: 3,240 first-year students</p>

<p>In a never ending quest to find meaning in a process I am not privy two, I wonder what the thinking was this year on several fronts. First, from reading prior posts, it appears likely that IS yield will be higher than last year (due to the economy) and OOS yield will be lower than last year (due to the same factor). For purposes of this analysis, let us presume that is a given. Also, based on the foregoing, let us assume that the goal is to enroll 70 more students this year than last year. </p>

<p>Question--if the goal is to enroll more students this year than last year, why extend fewer overall offers. Likely answer--yield will be sufficiently higher this year than last year. Correct?</p>

<p>Question -- if the answer to the foregoing question is true, presumably the increase in yield must come from the higher IS yield because we have already presumed the OOS yield will be lower than last year. Correct?</p>

<p>Questions -- since OOS offers were lower than last year and yield for OOS offers is expected to be lower than last year, where is the likely source of OOS acceptances (to equal the approximate 1/3 number) going to come from to make up the shortfall in the OOS yield? Likely answer -- OOS waitlisted students? Correct?</p>

<p>Needless to say, this is nothing more than wishful thinking on my part but I am curious as to others reactions to the numbers and assumptions. I am not trying to ignite a discussion of the pros or cons of the process--just the numbers. Thanks.</p>

2

<p>Last year was the 1st year that they didn’t have Early Admission, so I believe UVa admitted more students in '08 because they thought the yield would be significantly lower than the year prior when they had early admission (since early admits were required to attend, that helped with the overall yield. Without EA, the assumption was that many students might choose another school over UVa.) Learning that even with only Regular Admission, many accepted students decided to attend UVa, I think the Admissions Office didn’t need to admit as many students this year since the yield will probably remain pretty high. Hey, if they come up short, they can always turn to the wait list.</p>

3

<p>Also, while admissions are usually need-blind, admittance off of the waitlist is not the same and i’m sure they’ll start cherry picking OOS students who said they don’t want financial aid when they need to. ALSO it doesn’t have to be 33% OOS, it just has to be at least 67% IS, so that’s not really a concern… Minus the fact that UVA is doing some serious number crunching - a lot of my friends have lost their UVA jobs and don’t get me started on the CS dept - so full-paying OOSers would be beneficial financially. This brings up - is it really “diverse” if it’s just a bunch of OOS kids who can pay full tuition? I wonder how it will change the class dynamic…</p>

4

<p>Haze - I am trying to stay away from touchy subjects about need etc. (as you did) and just focus on the numbers. With that said, and assuming that they will go to waitlist for OOS students, and assuming again they fill by college applied to, does anyone (other than Dean J) really know exactly what methodology will be used to select the OOS waitlisted students for admission? I just do not have an understanding of how that process works–even to coment intelligently on your statement that the waitlist admits are not chosen on a need blind basis. I just do not know whether that is true or not (good or bad aside).</p>

5

<p>i know at schools like duke this is how the waitlist works… i’m obviously not an admissions officer for uva so i can’t verify my statement for them (just in general, that is how the practice works… it’s the economically smart decision imho - and why would you waste your time accepting people off of a waitlist when they are just going to deny you because they can’t/[choose not to take loans to] pay for it.). i can’t find anything at all here [UVa</a> CDS - C. First-time, First-year Admission](<a href=“http://www.web.virginia.edu/IAAS/data_catalog/institutional/cds/current/admissions.htm]UVa”>http://www.web.virginia.edu/IAAS/data_catalog/institutional/cds/current/admissions.htm) to give any kind of hint as to how those kids are selected off of the waitlist… i tried searching dean j’s blog but it didn’t give anything more than what that page said (that it “isn’t ranked” - whatever that means in terms of how they select students).</p>

<p>on the other hand, i did find out that in 2005 only 25% of uva students received financial aid… this seems to imply it is still that way: [UVa</a> CDS - H. Financial Aid](<a href=“http://www.web.virginia.edu/IAAS/data_catalog/institutional/cds/current/financial_aid.htm]UVa”>http://www.web.virginia.edu/IAAS/data_catalog/institutional/cds/current/financial_aid.htm)</p>

<p>in a googling bout of victory, brown’s “need blind” policy extends to its waitlist. it will be interesting to see if we get any information on uva’s policy from someone higher up <em>cough</em></p>

6

<p>John,</p>

<p>I haven’t spent much time comparing UVa’s 2008 and 2009 numbers, but here are my initial thoughts regarding what you asked about.</p>

<p>IS – I doubt that UVa expects much change here. IS apps were only up a little over 4%, and UVa offers to this group were down by less than 3%. I think the IS yield in 2008 was slightly higher than the school anticipated (with the elimination of Early Decision), so it makes sense that with the economy being what it is and with this being only the second year without ED, they would not make quite as many offers. But overall, I don’t think this picture will change much. IMO, given the relatively small increase in IS apps, on the IS side the poorer economic conditions won’t have a significant impact on UVa’s IS yield, since other Virginia schools like VT and JMU are noticeably less expensive to attend than UVa. But most kids who choose UVa over Tech or JMU probably don’t make their final decision based on cost to attend. Thus, I think the IS yield situation will be comparable to 2008 for the University (if we assume 2008 was a “typical year” absent ED).</p>

<p>OS – These apps were up by 23%, a significant increase. It appears this is where the switch to the CA most inflated the applicant pool (and perhaps the accepted student stats for SAT numbers/ranges/etc?). Given the dramatic increase in the number of OS apps, as well as the admissions uncertainly created by a struggling (and possibly further deteriorating) economy, the safe thing to do from an admissions perspective would be to err on the side of caution until you see how your acceptances are running. If yield is lower than it needs to be, you can always go to the waitlist to boost your numbers (as Hazel said, probably with students who can pay the full sticker price). Given the political firestorm that would likely erupt if UVa overenrolled OS students, it’s prudent to be conservative with these offers.</p>

<p>For the record, it should be noted that while UVa’s goal for 2008 was 3,170 students, they actually enrolled 3,256. The total number enrolled in 2008 is very close to this year’s goal of 3,240.</p>

<p>This discussion reminds me of a conversation I had with Dean Jack Blackburn when our family attended Days on the Lawn. I remember how nonplussed Dean Blackburn was when he talked about UVa’s expected yield for the Class of 2011. He didn’t seem at all concerned that acceptances would vary from prior historical patterns.</p>

<p>With the abolition of ED last year, and the conversion to the Common App this year, UVa’s admissions picture is surely more blurred in terms of getting to the desired enrollment targets than it was two years ago. In such an unsettled environment, it pays to be wary of potentially negative pitfalls. Just my two cents worth, most of which I should point out is pure conjecture.</p>

7

<p>Thank you all for the thoughtful responses. It is always a nice reality check to read well thought out responses when nerves are a bit in a tither. I guess Dean J will enlighten us all in a short while on most of these issues. In the interim, I will continue to conjure up logical though not necessarily true scenarios to add comfort to my S who sits on the waitlist.</p>

8

<p>Still trying to fit together the pieces. Last year, according to the CDC, UVA waitlisted 3,238 people. This year, according to Dean J, UVA waitlisted approximately 4,000 people. That is a fairly significant jump. Is there an inverse relationship between expected yield this year and the number of waitlisted applicants? It would seem so. Reality check–according to the same CDC, last year only 60 applicants made it in off of the waitlist.</p>

9

<p>Because of the economy, I think they’re not completely sure about the yield rate this year. That’s one of the reasons why they are waitlisting many more students.</p>

10

<p>John,</p>

<p>As you already know, very few students are admitted from UVa’s Waitlist (60 in 2008, 159 in 2007, 145 in 2006, 83 in 2005 and 37 in 2004). However, the only number that really matters is 1 – the one offer your son might be able to secure if he is willing to soldier on and continue to fight for a spot in the Class of 2013. But the road from the Waitlist and onto the Grounds at UVa can be grueling and gut wrenching; with no guarantee an applicant will reach their desired destination. Embarking on this journey invites even further disappointment for your son, and therefore should not be undertaken without earnest reflection. Our family was spared from having to face this scenario, but we had considered the possibility, and here’s how we might have approached it. No gospel here, only opinion; as such it could be fraught with errors. </p>

<p>If your son is interested in continuing his pursuit of UVa, you folks will need to develop a game plan that maximizes his obviously slim chance of success. Waging the next battle of this campaign involves putting together and implementing a strategy and complimentary tactics designed to 1) catch and maintain positive visibility with UVa’s Admissions’ Officers; 2) highlight his best strengths and what he will bring to the University community if offered; and 3) communicate his fervent and unrelenting desire to attend UVa (including his unconditional willingness to accept any offer that might be forthcoming [without needing to seek financial assistance]).</p>

<p>If you proceed with this process, I would suggest putting his previously submitted application under the microscope to look for and shore up any blemishes (weak spots) while also crafting new ways to build on his accomplishments and strong points. Every action taken from here on should have a clear purpose designed to advance his standing with the UVa AO; any written submissions need to be interesting, illuminating and easy to read (of first rate quality with no mistakes of any kind); and the steps taken should be coordinated with the timing of the waitlist process. Going forward from where he is now, constructive creativity is probably good, while hokie actions are likely bad (pun intended). Remember, his primary goal here is to stand out from the rest of the crowd in an advantageous kind of way. Thus, strive for maximum impact and influence – politely, positively, persistently, with both confidence and humility (and humor where appropriate). Be personal. But don’t simply seek attention; endeavor to engender admiration and affection. To paraphrase my point: to get an offer they’ve got to have an open spot and they’ve also got to be convinced your son can do the work and excel academically. However, it can’t hurt his chances if they also like him and are attracted to his personality and character. Be real.</p>

<p>UVa goes to their waitlist according the various schools (CLAS, SEAS, etc.), which slices the waitlist pie into even smaller segments when it comes to getting an offer. Thus, there may, or may not, be any openings for the specific school your son applied for at UVa this year. That’s another chance you take.</p>

<p>If your son absolutely has his heart set on UVa, he may want to keep going in his quest for an offer from the University. However, if he does carry on in this pursuit, he needs to simultaneously decide on, and begin to build excitement for, another school that in all probability he’ll end up attending. That can be a difficult task for some young people.</p>

<p>I wish you and your son the best regardless of the course he chooses to undertake. As I said earlier, thankfully my son didn’t have to make this decision. It would have been a difficult choice, and an even harder mission. </p>

<p>I hope things work out for your son and the rest of your family.</p>

11

<p>Once again, thank you for your thoughtful post. We are very fortunate. S is an extremely resilient young man and is able to “go with the flow” with his head held high. With that said, he is a “finisher” and takes the waitlist as a challenge rather than a setback. He intends to rise to the challenge while hoping for the best and being fully aware of the long odds.</p>

12

<p>Most other things being comparable to what UVa expects, I’d say the qualities you mentioned in your last post are important characteristics I’d like to see from a young person seeking admission from the waitlist.</p>

<p>Hopefully the Admissions Officers at the University will see and appreciate those (and other) admirable personal and academic traits that will make him a worthy candidate for any opening that materializes for his desired school at UVa. Let’s hope the cream will yet rise to the top in his situation.</p>

13

<p>Amen. Time will tell.</p>