<p>S was waitlisted. He was crushed. Enough said on that front. Here are some statistics. Looking for methodolgy and likely scenarios this year. All comments welcome.</p>
<p>2008
Total number of applications: 18,531
Total number of VA apps: 7,355
Total number of OOS apps: 11,176
Overall offer rate: 35.7% (6,628 total offers)
Overall VA offer rate: 45.8% (3,372 offers)
Overall OOS offer rate: 29% (3,256 offers)
Enrollment goal: 3,170 first-year students with roughly 2,092 being from VA</p>
<p>2009
Total number of applications: 21,839
Total number of VA apps: 7,663
Total number of OOS apps: 13,764
Overall offers: 6,331 total offers (28.9%)
Total VA offers: 3,276 offers (42.7%)
Total OOS offers: 3,055 offers (22%)
Enrollment goal: 3,240 first-year students</p>
<p>In a never ending quest to find meaning in a process I am not privy two, I wonder what the thinking was this year on several fronts. First, from reading prior posts, it appears likely that IS yield will be higher than last year (due to the economy) and OOS yield will be lower than last year (due to the same factor). For purposes of this analysis, let us presume that is a given. Also, based on the foregoing, let us assume that the goal is to enroll 70 more students this year than last year. </p>
<p>Question--if the goal is to enroll more students this year than last year, why extend fewer overall offers. Likely answer--yield will be sufficiently higher this year than last year. Correct?</p>
<p>Question -- if the answer to the foregoing question is true, presumably the increase in yield must come from the higher IS yield because we have already presumed the OOS yield will be lower than last year. Correct?</p>
<p>Questions -- since OOS offers were lower than last year and yield for OOS offers is expected to be lower than last year, where is the likely source of OOS acceptances (to equal the approximate 1/3 number) going to come from to make up the shortfall in the OOS yield? Likely answer -- OOS waitlisted students? Correct?</p>
<p>Needless to say, this is nothing more than wishful thinking on my part but I am curious as to others reactions to the numbers and assumptions. I am not trying to ignite a discussion of the pros or cons of the process--just the numbers. Thanks.</p>