Realistic Chances for my son's list. (WGPA103 / ACT36)

Thank you so much for your responses. All your comments mean a lot.

@mamaedefamilia
“did he make the cutoff for National Merit for your state? That opens up many options”

Yes, he did made the cut off.
But isn’t the final result coming out at the end of the Sr. Yr? And what options? Can you share your thoughts, please?

It would be helpful to order the schools in the order that he currently wants to attend or at least some groupings.

@saniel Even though the NM process isn’t fully concluded until the end of senior year, being a National Merit Semifinalist/Finalist still carries a lot of weight for admission and in some cases unlocks full tuition or full ride scholarships. For example, places like UT-Dallas, Texas Tech, U of New Mexico, U Alabama (Huntsville and Tuscaloosa) are eager to attract high stats OOS students and they all have good honors programs as well as auto-merit. So do U of Arizona and Arizona State (Barrett Honors), where merit is not automatic but highly likely. At USC, National Merit Finalists are eligible for 1/2 tuition scholarships (if admitted) with possibility of competing for full tuition. NMSF will also carry some weight with many top elite universities. Vanderbilt, for example, likes strong test scores.

Frankly, I think your son will be accepted to Rutgers, with Honors Program and merit money likely, but there are other public universities that would treat him very well. As for the reaches on your list, National Merit qualification won’t guarantee anything but it is another point in his favor, especially for NJ where the state cutoff for NM consideration is very high.

Finally, have you had an opportunity to meet with the guidance counselor at his school and does it use Naviance? The GC can compare your son’s profile with historical data from the school to get an idea of how he would fare, with the caveat that things can change rapidly from year to year.

Honors college at U of SC (South Carolina as opposed to USC in cali) is an excellent deal for OOS students. Very stat-driven admissions, esp. test scores. Lots and lots of perks, top-ranked honors college, brand new honors dorm, smaller classes best professors, priority enrollment and game tickets, cookies and milk and bedtime stories (a little weird, and I am NOT making that up) etc. Still sad my son didn’t accept there. Also, it is an early app so you will have one acceptance in hand by December, which can really help calm the nerves.
Be prepared for bruised feelings. You have every right to be very proud of your son and his accomplishments, and I’m sure you’ve been receiving a lot of marketing materials from all the top ranked schools saying that they are looking for kids just like him. So when you spend hours crafting essays, and months waiting, and then you get a email, not even a letter, or a link to a portal, and it says “yeah, sorry, but nah” you are going to feel like someone you’ve been dating just broke up with you by text. South Carolina sent SOMETHING every week - a postcard, letter from a dean, whatever - and I felt like someone appreciated my son. And yes, that first go around, it did feel very personal, to ME.

As a fellow New Jersian, I am also sure he will get jnto Rutgers BUt - take a look at TCNJ (“private school feel at a public school price”) and Rowan, which my daughter much preferred over Rutgers (a more typical campus feel, as opposed to a scattered, commuter-college feel) and Rowan will throw money at you with both hands.

Why only UCLA, not UCB, UCSD?
UCLA is very tricky.

@mamaedefamilia and @Gudmom
Thank you so much for your good words and suggestions. That means a lot. We will definitely look into those colleges. Do all universities and colleges have Honors College?

@coolweather

Thanks for your suggestion. Where is UCB??

Just to clarify, NMS status does not carry a lot of – or any, for that matter – weight with the Ivies and super-selective schools.

@saniel “Where is UCB?”

UC Berkeley

https://admissions.berkeley.edu/

Only one application is needed to applied to all UC campuses.
You just need to pay more application fee.

My D was accepted to UCB but waitlisted by UCLA.

First, your son sounds like a very smart, accomplished kid. His stats will make him a viable candidate most places …along with thousands of other kids with not-that-dissimilar stats. Hence, most of these schools are reaches for everyone. Question: are you comfortable with the $50K EFC that pops up when you run the NPCs? Or will you need merit money to make these schools options? It sounds like he’s the oldest child. Will his younger sibling overlap with him at all during college years? If so, that can help with finances when two are in at once. If money is an issue, it does make ED difficult.

You’ll want to find some EA schools where you’ll most likely get positive results early on. Binghamton, Fordham, Rutgers (as mentioned) all fall into that category. I imagine he would get into the Honors College & get some merit $$ from each of these. UVA also has EA - although they are also adding ED this year which will be interesting. You might consider adding EA at UMass-Amherst, too.

Have you visited any of the schools yet? I do think he has a chance at some of the top schools. Having a few “yeses” from the EA schools early on will make the wait till the end of March much easier - and also lesson the sting if you don’t get the results you were hoping for.

In general, the better or higher ranked a school is, and the more competitive the admissions, the less important an Honors college is, and often there isn’t much benefit to it. But at bigger state schools which are not the “public Ivies”, it can be a make-or-break decision for a high stays student. OU and Arizona and Alabama i believe offer a lot of money to NMF. U of S.C. Honors college is actually considered a “college “ not a “program”, and it has distinct advantages over being in the gen pop at the school. Whereas the Honors program at UVAnor even Virginia Tech confers only marginal benefit, and hasninly limited offerings that are distinct from those available to all students.

The UCs would be prohibitively expensive for OOS at 65,000 a year and will not offer any financial aid for non California residents, essentially making it the same cost as a private school. I would advise taking UCLA off the list if it’s unaffordable.

I think your safety schools look fine. Apply early to rolling admission schools and non-binding EA to Fordham and there should be positive answers by the end of December.

Well, thank you everyone again for sharing your insights!! We will look into those schools suggested. Now we know what are our safeties… now i am lost…Looks like most of them in the list are the reach schools… is 50~ 100 colleges will be our match school, you think?

Depending on the major, BU, Case Western, and Rochester should be added. They are very realistic targets and even though they are not safeties, OP’s son has the numbers for them.

Case Western is pretty generous with merit aid for high scoring students/NMSF and could be considered as an EA school. Although it’s not ranked as high as Emory, Rice, Vandy, or WashU, it’s an academic peer. Same with Rochester.

I think Chicago could be a fit for OP’s son as well as they have the intellectual curiosity for students.

Is your son Asian? If so please consider that the bar for Asians at the elite schools is higher. In this case, applying ED to a school farther down the list will give him a boost.

@sgopal2 Good point. But at some lacs being Asian would be neutral to giving a boost. Not at Williams or Amherst, but at Bowdoin, Davidson, Midd as they have a harder time enrolling Asian students.

To the OP: “Maybe my son is doing something wrong???”

I just took issue with that statement. I understand your concern as a parent financially invested in her kid, but your son isn’t doing anything wrong and it’s emotionally damaging to say as such. He’s accomplished and has managed to balance a heavy courseload with honors societies and speech and debate, and you should be nothing but supportive.

@saniel “is 50~ 100 colleges will be our match school, you think?”
Any college with an acceptance rate of less than 25% or so is a reach for anybody. The ranking of the college is not what determines how difficult it is to be accepted. Furthermore, the ranking of a college also has little to do with how good a colleges is, and has even less to do with how good a college will be for your child.

Moreover, rankings by program differ from the rankings of a university, so UIUC is ranked higher than most Ivies for its engineering programs, and liberal arts colleges are ranked separately from research universities because the two categories of colleges have very different missions. So, do you include the top 25 LACs in your T-50 category, or only the top 10? Moreover, ranking changes from year to year, and a colleges which is ranked as a T-10 one year may not be in that category by the time your kid graduates.

My point is that rankings are practically meaningless as a tool for deciding the best colleges for your kid (or in general).

consider TCNJ, academically it is easily the most competitive other than Princeton in the state. Much more like a NESCAC school than a state school and with the academics and opportunities to match. Also known as the "happiest school " in the tri-state area.