Simple, Loose Indication of Best Musical Theatre Schools

College Majors Musical Theater Major
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<p>I'm relatively new to college confidential - wish I had dug into this site 6 months ago, but fortunately applications/auditions went pretty smoothly for my D. Now that she has a couple of offers and hoping for more (I'm getting a kick out of the CMU phone-call thread), I've gotten serious about trying to decipher which schools are "best" today (Preemptive Response #1: I know there are tons of variables and opinions, "best-fit", etc., but it doesn't hurt to try and find hard data anywhere you can get it). I've seen how enthusiastic some discussions can get on CC, so I've included preemptive responses to the kind of comments I would anticipate. </p>

<p>First, I've embarked on a significant effort looking at which schools have had performers on broadway, including graduation dates, roles vs ensemble, the whole works. I love statistics, I'm a good programmer, and I've been able to mine a lot of data in this regard. Anyway, I will post the results of this study when I'm done (in a couple of weeks because I want to have it done by decision time, ~April 1st).</p>

<p>In the mean time, there is one piece of information in front of everyone's noses here that sheds some light on which programs are most desirable - the number of posts on the CC board! It appears that this is correlates fairly well to my preliminary statistics concerning people on broadway (Preemptive Response #2: I know broadway is not the only measure of best or success, but it's the one that I could easily get complete statistics for, largely from the Playbill site). Again, the data in this post is totally separate from the detailed broadway data that I'm currently compiling.</p>

<p>The data below, i.e the number of comments on the CC thread, provide an indication of what schools parents/kids are most interested in, which then provides a loose implication of what schools they think are best (among many other factors). Preemptive Response #3: of course it would be silly to base a decision largely on this list, but I think any hard data can be useful if used in the proper perspective.</p>

<p>6,636 NYU/Tisch MT
2,813 Carnegie Mellon University MT
2,505 University of Michigan MT
1,822 Oklahoma City University MT
1,622 University of the Arts MT
1,579 Cincinnati College Conservatory of Music MT
1,529 Elon University MT
1,474 Boston Conservatory MT
1,425 Ithaca College MT
1,346 Syracuse University MT
1,330 Otterbein University MT
1,212 Webster University MT
1,133 Pace University MT
1,061 Point Park University MT
858 Baldwin-Wallace College MT
736 University of Hartford - Hartt School MT
719 Pennsylvania State University MT
682 Northwestern University MT
575 Montclair State University MT
559 Roosevelt University MT
530 Emerson College MT
522 California State University, Fullerton MT
471 Shenandoah Conservatory MT
469 Muhlenberg College MT
465 Marymount Manhattan College MT
423 Florida State University MT
422 Coastal Carolina University
421 Ball State University MT
404 Indiana University Bloomington MT
377 University of Arizona MT
335 NYU/Steinhardt MT
276 James Madison University MT
258 Wagner College MT
252 University of Miami - Florida MT
206 University of California - Irvine MT
189 Texas State - San Marcos MT
188 Temple University MT
181 University of California - Los Angeles MT
174 Wright State - MT
170 American University MT
159 University of Oklahoma MT
158 Illinois Wesleyan - MT
141 University of Southern California MT
134 Westminster College of the Arts - Rider - MT
131 Viterbo University MT
128 Millikin University MT
118 SUNY at Fredonia MT
111 Ohio Northern University MT
105 University of Central Florida MT
79 Texas Christian University MT
75 SUNY at Buffalo MT
73 Catholic University MT
64 Northern Colorado University MT
57 Western Michigan University MT
56 Sam Houston State University MT
39 Santa Fe University of Art and Design MT </p>

<p>Preemptive Response #4: I know that NYU/Tisch has issues with the CAP21 split and it accepts 3 times more kids than most of these programs, so it's numbers are inflated.</p>

<p>Preemptive Response #5: I realize that schools with confusing programs and websites, again Tisch as the prime example, might see more traffic, while schools with well-defined programs/websites could have low traffic.</p>

<p>Preemptive Response #6: I know that people could easily stoke these ratings by posting lots of meaningless comments for their favorite school, but at least this incentive did not exist prior to the posting of this list.</p>

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<p>Another HUGE caveat to this is that some schools are very academically selective, which makes them completely out of range and/or uninteresting (and hence no discussion) for most people.</p>

<p>Plus some programs are much newer than others.</p>

<p>Plus some schools have many active CC members, where others have almost none.</p>

<p>Etc…</p>

<p>Also -there was an earlier thread based on PlayBill data, but you may want to consider whether to only look at Musicals or also consider straight plays, since some MT programs will have alum doing both, PLUS some programs also have many alum go on to do film and TV while others don’t. Also - PlayBill data may not include National or Regional tours.</p>

<p>It’s still interesting, though, and it will be fun to see what else you come up with!</p>

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<p>I did basically the same thing about two years ago, see Post #8 and the following posts in this thread:</p>

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1172847-less-selective-bfa-mt-schools.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1172847-less-selective-bfa-mt-schools.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>You may also be interested in this thread, Post #146 has some “hard” data:</p>

<p><a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1116787-colleges-did-current-broadway-performers-attend-10.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/musical-theater-major/1116787-colleges-did-current-broadway-performers-attend-10.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Far more interested in your data mining from playbill stats than cc post list - so bring it on soon:)</p>

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<p>While I appreciate the work that went into this, I disagree with your premise that the number of posts on CC somehow correlates with a desirable school! For example, if you read the Pace thread, or the thread about which school surprised you the most, you will notice a LOT of negative posts. People post about a particular school for a number of reasons: b/c they are interested in the school; because they are angry/unhappy/upset about a school; or b/c they have a question (e.g., I have a ton of posts on the Ball State and FSU threads, b/c EVERYONE else seems to have rec’d a response, but we haven’t. That certainly doesn’t make them desirable, in my book.). So, this basic assumption is likely incorrect. I think, in order to be more accurate, you would have to read the posts, determine if they are negative, positive, or neutral, and then you might have something interesting.</p>

<p>BUT, another caveat is that your data are biased towards people who post on CC. Someone was just noting, for example, that there are very few Penn State acceptances on the acceptance thread. We don’t know who posts on CC, but I am pretty confident that it is a biased population. (I am married to a biostatistician, so…I hear this stuff all the time.)</p>

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<p>Love the preemptive response idea but one I just can’t let go without suggesting a correction to one part of it:</p>

<p>“Preemptive Response #4: I know that NYU/Tisch has issues with the CAP21 split”</p>

<p>Any current student/parent, especially the younger ones who are in NSB studying MT have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. It’s irrelevant. By the time your daughter would get to NYU, all of the Cap21s will have graduated. You can’t miss what you never knew and frankly what is there in its place is pretty darn great. I’d recommend you let that go in your assessment and just focus on what “is”.</p>

<p>No argument with the fact that beyond that, by the numbers NYU is the 800 lb. gorilla in the college theatre program world.</p>

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<p>halflokum: The “issues” I was referring were mostly statistical, there are now 2 schools that can be attributed to the Tisch thread and can claim credit for the past successes of the program, plus the split has been a reason for lots of comments. </p>

<p>Also, you can’t have it both ways - you can’t say the split is irrelevant while at the same time call Tisch King Kong (because King Kong is based on the success of Tisch/Cap21 combined). When I present my statistical analysis, do you think I should not attribute the Tisch/Cap21 alumni on broadway to Tisch?</p>

<p>BTW, I’m hoping Tisch becomes an option for my D - we liked the school when we auditioned and do envision it as King Kong (although King Kong does not necessarily equate to best).</p>

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<p>Touche to MomCares! I just realized that although my D applied to Northwestern, I have not once checked that thread because I figure she has little chance of getting in.</p>

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<p>Hmm. Can’t go with you on anything except your comment about there could be an excess of chatter on CC because of the split. Fine. Didn’t do the research and honestly, I don’t care because when we were looking at Tisch for MT, we were only looking at NSB because by the time my daughter applied, that was the only option. But we also looked at Tisch for all of its BFA acting programs as well since she is an actor first.</p>

<p>I didn’t say “King Kong” and all that implies, you did. I said 800 lb. gorilla (elephant, whale… pick your animal) which was just a reference to its size because when I say so I’m not just talking about their MT program, I’m also counting all of the other acting studios which after the primary studio years any MT might decide to take advantage of or they could decide up front to willingly be considered for an acting program if not placed in NSB for MT as my daughter did. It is a big playground in that sense. Otherwise my “gorilla” comment makes no sense. There are only 64 kids/year admitted into MT at Tisch. Not that different from BoCo on a big year and probably some other programs but sure still 2 to 3 x the size of others. </p>

<p>Never said “King Kong” and also never said “King Kong = Best”. The implication makes me uncomfortable so I just want to be clear on that point.</p>

<p>You can decide what to do with the stats. There are no NSB grads yet to play with the numbers so I’d give them all to Tisch/Cap21. Not at all sure where this analysis is going and I actually am a (former) market researcher/stats gal.</p>

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<p>MTpragmatist - you have WAY too much time on your hands! But if it makes you happy and keeps you busy until your daughter decides, go ahead. Many errors in your thought process, for example with number of postings - if you have a school like Point Park (I think?) where many of the posts are negatively discussing being admitted and then being closed out because you didn’t get your deposit in on time even though it’s before the May 1 commitment date - what do your numbers mean then? I’m not even going to start with your haphazard thoughts on reading Playbills to determine success of graduates! You know what they say about statistics - you can use them to prove anything you want them to prove. Enjoy!!!</p>

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<p>I don’t believe you can equate popularity with Greatness. Just because a lot of people are currently talking about a school, or even applying to a school, doesn’t necessarily make it the best.</p>

<p>Let’s not forget that Texas State, being a fairly new program, is WAY down your list in terms of post count, but if you look at the “Final Decisions” thread for the class of 2017, it is clearly the “flavor du jour” this year. I don’t think anyone (at least here on CC) would deny that TSU would have to be considered a very popular school. Does that make it the “best?” I don’t think it’s been around long enough to know. (Not to take anything away from a GREAT program! I just don’t think popularity really is the best gauge of “greatness.” There are a lot of reasons TSU is so popular, not the least of which is the price.)</p>

<p>As so many have already pointed out, the fact that people are talking a lot about a school does not make it a popular school. Last year there was a lot of very negative and heated discussion about a particular school (that seems to be happening a bit to Pace this year) that would drive its post counts way up, but it definitely does not make it a more popular school because of it.</p>

<p>I guess it’s our naturally competitive nature that makes us always want to try to determine which program is the “best.” Every year we try to figure it out and everyone makes their case as to why this or that school is it. In the end, what does it really matter? And all this fussing and fighting over it just causes more angst, unnecessary heartbreak and disappointment in some and a (sometimes) unjustified sense of superiority in others, all based on a couple of people’s opinion of a 2-20 minute glimpse of a student’s work on any given day. To me that just doesn’t make any sense at all.</p>

<p>Yet here we are, year after year, hashing it all out again (and I’m right there with the best of them, so please don’t interpret this as judgement!) I guess it’s as good an activity as any to pass the time while waiting t hear if our kids are likely to “make it” or not, depending on if they got into a “top” school or not. I’m just glad I’m out of that boat this year!!!</p>

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<p>amtc: You certainly cannot get statistics to prove anything, unless you fudge the data and/or lie. You certainly can sway the conclusion of the viewer towards your opinions based on how you present and evaluate the data, but one thing I like about numbers is that they in themselves do not lie. In this thread I simply posted some straight unfettered numbers - and I think most will agree there is some level of correlation between prestige of program and posts, and I think all will agree with you that it’s rather poor and uncorrelated data.</p>

<p>I’m not sure what haphazard thoughts you are referring to on the broadway analysis, but if school X puts 15% of people who walk in the door on broadway and school Y puts 5%, I would like to factor that in the decision. I understand full well that this does not directly imply the best school, but it is ignorant to think that statistic this doesn’t mean anything (except for the rare MT student that would not like to perform on broadway).</p>

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<p>@Mtpragmatist “and I think most will agree there is some level of correlation between prestige of program and posts”</p>

<p>Allow me to be the first to say, I’m in the “do not agree” category. If I’m sitting here all by myself that is fine but for the record: nope.</p>

<p>I know you are new to the thread, and to your credit you are tackling an awfully tough subject which despite all of the preemptive planning will result in push back. Feel free just as many who have “boldly gone where no man has gone before” have discovered. Truly a tricky subject for lots of reasons that will defy statistics but that is indeed the fun of the conversation.</p>

<p>Welcome back TracyVP!!! We’ve missed you :)</p>

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<p>halflokum: so you’re saying that if I presented 2 lists, one that is shown, and one in which the list it totally reversed, starting with Sante Fe, Sam Houston, and UM/CMU/NYU last, you would not say that the initial list is more representative of the best schools than the reversed list? That is what a correlation is, and you still believe there is not one?</p>

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<p>Though that is an enormous exaggeration of my point, sure. I’d be willing to say that could indeed be true. “Best” is not an objective calculation that can be calculated by the number of posts on the CC thread. It just isn’t.</p>

<p>And not that it matters because gut is more than enough for me to say it, I know what a statistical correlation is. I have a masters in that sort of “stuff” and worked in the field for years before just becoming I guess among other things an MT mom who has absolutely no horse in this race, whatever box I fit in. But I’m not completely rusty enough on data mining not to point out that in order to draw the right statistically significant conclusion, you must first supply the model with the right data. # of CC posts doesn’t pass the sniff test and because I know you are in the middle of making a decision, I really wanted you to know that. Otherwise, what do I care? I’m just hanging around another year beyond when it matters because of people that came before me who helped me a lot.</p>

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<p>tracyvp: Good response. It seems that the difference between equating and correlating is the root of most of the comments here. With a correlation there will always be outliers, i.e. a school that get poorly or advantageously represented due to spurious and/or unfair circumstances. But to the uninformed like myself, I would lean my efforts towards to schools in the top half of the list versus the bottom half (understanding that I would miss a few that I probably should have looked at because they unfortunately ended up in the bottom half).</p>

<p>As for newer schools being underrepresented, that is one of the aspects I am bringing to my broadway analysis. I am using the graduation year (or expected graduation if they left early) to potentially give more weight to schools that are producing performers now, versus 10 or 20 years ago.</p>

<p>Finally, I totally get the competitive rehashing of opinions angle, which is actually why I am doing my research. Once you have a kid in a program, it is natural to indeed become an advocate for that school, which can make the debate rather useless. For those that already have a kid in a school, this discussion is more about entertainment and pride, but for those of us still deciding where to invest big $$ in our kid’s education every bit of information helps.</p>

<p>I will do my best to finish and post my analysis before D and I make a decision (I think all schools should have responded by April 1), so that I am not subject to the same temptations. I’m still digging to get more data - I did most of the data mining over Christmas break, and thus far I have school and age data on 600 broadway performers. I want to get a big enough dataset so that if I miss 1 or 2 people from any school it won’t make a huge difference.</p>

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<p>haflokum:Thanks for the thoughtful reply. We are more on the same page that it may have appeared. It may have been a mistake posting this data in the first place, but I was amazed when I saw that the number of CC posts correlated fairly well to the broadway data. I hope you are around to comment on the validity of the broadway data, that will get even more interesting. Also, I am quickly learning that this forum might become far too time consuming if one wants to debate anything that compares programs.</p>

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<p>No worries Mtpragmatist. </p>

<p>I’d urge you to understand that even things like “Once you have a kid in a program, it is natural to indeed become an advocate for that school, which can make the debate rather useless” can provoke unexpected discussion. As far as I can tell I’ve been telling you that my own kid’s school, which by the way at the top of your list, may or may not belong there. I’m perfectly willing to throw NYU under the bus for anyone that it isn’t right for. I just don’t like it to be thrown under the bus “just because”. That happens a lot. Sort of like hating the popular girl who may actually may actually be pretty nice. Best of luck in your decision!</p>

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<p>I have a background in research and edit/review a ton of research papers. What I would say is that your approach is statistically invalid, because you are only looking at a single variable , i.e. number of posts, and you are assuming an endpoint (i.e. ability to be on Broadway) which may not be the correct endpoint. You’d really have to do a multivariate analysis and take into account the faculty, non-Broadway career opportunities, as well as many other potential variables (some of which others have listed) to come up with a statistical model as to the “best” program.</p>

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<p>Thanks jeffandann for your posting – I am not a statistician but was thinking this was problematic for schools like Roosevelt in Chicago for instance — they are so integrated with the Chicago theatre scene that many of their graduates would consider having a career in THAT theatre industry a natural “end point” - I guess my only observation is that there are lots of working actors in other places besides Broadway and national tours. Broadway is a very cool place to land…but not the only measure of successful training or the right school. Still, this could be interesting. :)</p>