There are a many factors, even within the same region of Bay Area… A key one that has not had much discussion is cost of the solar install itself, which is highly variable. In CA (including Bay Area), you can look up how much other people in your location paid for similar solar installs, using the NEM Application Database at CaliforniaDGStats . This includes filtering for a particular installer, showing the cost that installer charged for similar installs in your area, which I found to be helpful in price negotiation. In my area, prices are all over the map, rather than everyone paying about the same for similar systems. Lease vs own is also important for payback period. If you can afford it, owning often has far better net return than leasing.
For a variety of reasons, solar installers tend to estimate high on the amount of recommended panels. And if one does estimate high, this can notably increase payback time since excess solar generation over a full year period is paid at low wholesale electric rates, rather than high retail rates, under CA NEM 2.0.
For the system itself, the specific location of the panels on different houses can lead to large variation in payback period, on different houses in the same region. For example, if you have trees with shade and/or droppings, that can dramatically worsen payback period. Even things like which side of roof the panels are on is important. Most experts recommend south, but when I worked out the numbers, I had better ROI with my mostly west facing roof side (~250 degrees azimuth = WSW) than mostly south, due to benefiting from TOU electric plan, with higher electric rates in late afternoon when sun is setting and facing west. A battery can allow you to better tale advantaged of variable TOU rate differences, but tends to dramatically increase payout time overall since the TOU benefits are not enough to counter the often high cost of battery. So in general, having a battery notably lengthens payback period.
I mentioned PVWatts earlier, which is a free tool developed by the government National Renewable Energy Laboratory. PVWatts is good for rough estimations at the level of consumers. For more a far more detailed analysis, the NREL also makes the free tool System Advisor Model (https://sam.nrel.gov/ ), which had professional usage in mind and is used by government agencies, such as DOE. It allows things like listing the specific panel and inverter model and considering their technical performance parameters, 3D shading model, depreciation, etc. You can also load the info you entered from PVWatts, run simulations, etc. The simulations produce a variety of graphs including estimated net cash flow by year for 25 years, and how cash flow varies when you modify system or cost parameters. It also returns at what year expected payback occurs, and how that changes as you vary system, or if curious how payback year changes if you change location.