Find targets that match the record.
Dont assume a kid with problems in organization and meeting deadlines shoul only choose based on scores. Do him a favor.
Grades reflect effort, learning, and readiness. No essay can change that.
And try to know enough. If the lower grades are in gym or some odd district requirement, so what? Why is this focus just on gpa? Top adcoms look at the transcript, itself.
Strategy? Be informed.