<p>With the stats that you gave, I think that you are being overly conservative in your assessments, and you should look at the ivys. They also provide better financial aid, especially at your income level, especially Harvard and Yale. </p>
<p>On your list, I would say that for your kid, Chicago (apply early action!), Northwestern, Pomona, Cornell, Vanderbilt and maybe Rice are all MATCHES! In my mind that means a probability of admissions of around 40-80%. </p>
<p>The others have chances ranging from 20-40%. I don’t think that you should assign a probability lower than 20% to any school (unless it’s a women’s college, LOL). </p>
<p>My D used Wisconsin as a rolling admissions safety. She applied in September and got in in October. Stress relief galore. Rochester is another good safety, small university, very LAC like, often with strong merit aid. McGill or Toronto are also good safeties and very different. </p>
<p>I would also say that if he doesn’t want to go to the south, or to religiously affiliated schools, then don’t look at those schools. You need SOME method of pairing down the list of top schools, and why start off the process by arguing with him. Teenagers are not always the most rational of beings and it’s not like he’d be left with few good choices if you eliminated them. </p>
<p>I would also use the junior year spring break visits to help him zone in on the type of school he likes (small, medium, large), (urban, suburban, rural), to help form his list. The particular schools almost don’t matter. Plan 1-3 fall visits to schools that are very serious candidates for top choice. A few schools (Dartmouth, Chicago, Northwestern) operating on the quarter system are still in session after AP exams in May. That is an ideal time to visit them. You can use a few summer visits for some schools that offer or recommend on-campus interviews and tend to care a lot about demonstrated interest. </p>
<p>You do not need to visit all of the schools - it gets pretty boring after a while.</p>