I believe @ILcolegeDad06 stated it was a full year C in that class so it might not have been just 1 Semester C that caused receiving a letter.
@traveler98 I think in the past there was some sort of bar that was consistent year to year. But we are only year two of this new revamped SAT. I think they didn’t want to set the bar too high or too low. Also I think some kids could have taken the OLD SAT and that has a slightly different scale. It is my understanding that maybe by the 2019 kids there will be a bar for those who come later. I have a 2020 kid and 2024 kids so I’m here for the long haul (I hope!)
Florida guinea pig here. DS has one semester C+ sophomore year in Algebra II AB. Final grade was B. 3.68 W GPA. Confirming SAT score met. Good extracurriculars and service hours, job as a summer camp counselor and lettered in 2 sports. Competitive college prep private school. We are fortunate to be in Florida with Bright Futures and Fla. Prepaid if he doesn’t make it, but qualifying for the State’s Benacquisto scholarship at UF, UCF or FSU would be icing on the cake by taking care of room and board! Keeping our fingers crossed…
“Maybe I misunderstood discussions from prior years, but I thought that in previous years applicants knew the confirming score cutoff earlier in the process.”
What @bama2000 is saying at #81. In its final years, the old test had an established curve so commended didn’t really jump around much - maybe between 200 and 202 out of a possible 240. The confirming score tended to remain at 196 (1960 was the actual SAT score) so a comfortable 4-6 points below. Was the confirming score initially pegged to Commended at one point and remained there despite some upward drift? Not sure. But what’s going on with the new test might suggest that pattern. For Class of 2017 (year one of new test), the confirming score turned out to be the Commended number of 209. Now in year two, Commended has jumped by two points but the confirming score, if truly 208, has dropped a point. Perhaps the drop reflects the hasher curve of the new SAT once they tweaked the scaling following the March and May 2016 tests. In any case, they didn’t peg it to the Commended number this year but seem to be holding it steady.
@JBStillFlying I was told the 2017 confirming score actually came in at 206. They were told 209 (like we were told 211 oringinally) which was the commended score but it was actually 3 points lower. Again this year the confirming score is 3 points lower than the 211 commended score for the class of 2018
@bama2000 - ah - thanks for that clarification. That’s consistent with what we were seeing for the old test.
@JBStillFlying , I was told the same when I called NMSC re: confirming score. They said that 206 was last year’s confirming score and that this year it should be a few points below the Commended score but that they cannot guarantee it. %-(
Ta-rah-rah-BOOM-dee-ayyy. There was no mail today. 
So when my parents mentioned the impending government shut down, all I could think of was how it will affect the flow of NM mail @-)
Sewin, you’re going to be fine. You got this. 
The Postal Service will not shut down.
@Kayak24 Haha thank you. Yes we shall all get through this together!
@iahomeschoolmom Ok good to know thanks!!
Has anyone received or heard news of the rejection letters? I am an NMSF anxiously hoping not to get a letter until February!
One person a page or two back said their child had received a rejection letter in Illinois. I expect we’ll get more reports this week as it seems the letters went out last Tuesday or Wednesday.
@iahomeschoolmom - Sorry - I didn’t see your question earlier (and apparently am having trouble resonding directly to it), but yeah, he withdrew from a (IMO) bad AP Calc BC class 2nd semester. Still got the 5 on his exam, so hope that is a bit of a mitigating circumstance.
Two questions for those who may be in the know. Do all letters go out on the same date (our only report is on 1-16 for this year) and does NM use bulk mail? Another day that’s passed without a letter and I’m beginning to feel more positive.
An empty mailbox never looked so good !
NM uses bulk. And keep in mind that much of the country has been facing ice/snow storms so stuff will be slowed down in the delivery process.
All quiet in Louisiana. Anyone have receive an unhappy letter?
Nothing in Colorado. Hoping it stays that way. I wonder what the latest date is that letters could still appear.