University of Michigan Class of 2023 - Deferred Applicants

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of Michigan
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@sushiritto and @Knowsstuff: assuming that Michigan wishes to give no advantage or disadvantage to application timing, they might have deferred as few as approximately 11,500* early applicants last year. Does that seem too low to you? It would mean denying over 20,000 EA applications.

  • With 11,500 deferreds, the regular pool would have become 37,500 (26,000 new apps plus 11,500 deferreds); nearly as large as the Early pool. The EA admit rate was reportedly 20% (8,000/40,000); applying this rate to the regulars (as there is no advantage or disadvantage to either pool) gives us the additional 7,500 accepteds we need for the total admitted class (15,500 or so).

It’s possible that the total applicant pool is higher but it’s also possible that applicants are shifting their applications forward so that EA has increased faster than RD. Obviously we don’t know this yet since the application cycle isn’t over.

The above numbers are rounded of course and certainly approximately. Just trying to get some reasonable understanding of what it looks like in the regular pool given that over 60% of applications appear to be EA.

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Did the Ross applicants see this blog post? Ross will release decisions on the following Fridays at 5:00 PM EST:

February 1, 2019
March 1, 2019
March 29, 2019
April 19, 2019

https://michiganross.umich.edu/programs/bba/admissions-blog/2019/01/14/mark-your-calendars-when-our-bba-admissions-decisions-will

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Thanks for sharing, @sushiritto

Does anyone know if there’s been a correlation between the Ross decision dates and decision dates for the deferred application pool in past years? These dates/cadence seem similar to notification dates for deferrals from the Class of 2022 threads, for example.

ie - are they done together or is an entirely different Admissions team reviewing/issuing Ross decisions

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That’s the $64,000 question, how many EA apps are/were rejected? Sounds like you’re assuming 30% of the 40,000 EA apps are deferred, which when you add to the 20% accepted equals 50% accepted/deferred and 50% rejected? 50% rejection seems high to me for UMich, but what do I know.

Applications appear to be higher almost everywhere at the top schools, so I would assume apps increased above 40,000 EA/66,000 Total, the amounts from the Class of 2022.

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@sushiritto - actually, I’m assuming there is no admission rate advantage to going Early. Thought I had read that somewhere. The numbers fall out of that assumption and the info. that 8,000 of nearly 40,000 were admitted early. Other than that - clear as mud w/o some assumptions about admit rates for the two pools. Those rates may decline further of course but, least last year, EA was way more popular than RD. I wonder how that impacts personal chances in one group vs. the other?

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@sushiritto When does the next round of non-Ross decisions come out?

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Not sure. Personally, if I were an AO, I’d value a former EA/now RD app w/LOCI higher than a post-EA/RD app all else being equal, which they almost never are. But I think it all may boil down to the applicant’s UMich enthusiasm in their essays and stats.

You also have to factor in the 55/45 split (from Class of 2022 CDS) between in-state/OOS too.

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Probably Friday, February 1st at 5:00 PM EST.

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@sushiritto thanks !

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@JBStillFlying I would have thought that if MI denied over 20,000 applications in EA at least a few rejections would have been mentioned on CC last year. I don’t think I saw a single person last year say they were rejected, but as @sushiritto mentioned, the “Michigan Insider” definitely said there were rejections. That isn’t saying that there weren’t as many as 20k rejections, I just think it makes it less likely the number was that high.

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@JBStillFlying just got home from work and watching the Michigan basketball game… It is hard to predict and even if I could, how would that affect anyone? I think @sushiritto has some solid number but again… How does that help? Unless you have some predictive analysis software and know everyone’s score to input its just a guessing game. But my guess would be somewhere around 50% of applicants come from EA. This would be true at most schools.

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@projectmgr. That’s to bad. To give you some hope Yes, I think some people that they asked for midterm grades did get accepted before they sent in the grades. Saying that she will most likely be fully reviewed when they have all her information. So most likely not February 1st. But I love being wrong so post back after the 1st.

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“But my guess would be somewhere around 50% of applicants come from EA. This would be true at most schools.”

Last year 8,000 were admitted EA and about 7,500 through the regular round, so Michigan is consist with other schools there.

“It is hard to predict and even if I could, how would that affect anyone? I think @sushiritto has some solid number but again… How does that help? Unless you have some predictive analysis software and know everyone’s score to input its just a guessing game.”

  • It doesn't affect someone's personal chances, which may be higher or lower than the admit rate for the pool. I'm trying to find the admit rate. Obviously the number deferred is between 0 and 32,000 - but I'm trying to narrow it down. If you don't know - that's cool. Thought I'd ask.

@ckd022 - that makes sense. 20,000 rejections seemed high to me as well.

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You could call admissions and ask? :wink:

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Not sure if people have accessed before, but the University of Michigan’s Almanac has some very good detail re: admitted student segmentation: http://obp.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/almanac/Almanac_Ch2_Sept2018.pdf

Pulling data from the almanac as well as the Common Data set for incoming class for Fall 2017:

  • Total applications: 59,886; 15,871 offered; 6,815 enrolled
  • admit rate for in-state was 45%, OOS was 22%
  • in-state yield rate was 69%, OOS 31%
  • Total undergrad breakdown: 51% in-state, 44% OOS, 5% International
  • 11,127 offered spot on waitlist, 4,124 accepted spot once offered, 470 on waitlist ultimately received offers (~11% of those who agreed to go on the waitlist)

I share these #s as a reference to relative %s from 2 years back. Not etched in stone obviously, but perhaps useful in modeling these ratios onto current estimates of this year’s application pool

For example, we know from the university website that there were 65,684 applications for the incoming class of Fall 2018 (current Freshmen). Of the 65K, 12,521 were in-state and 5,141 offered admissions (41%). If the yield rate for in-state was unchanged, that would mean 3,547 of that class were in-state.

The site also shares that of 44,014 applications for OOS + 9,149 international, 10,327 were offered admissions.

https://record.umich.edu/articles/more-65000-apply-incoming-freshman-class

If we apply the undergrad breakdown to the 10,327, 89% of the 10,327 offers were to OOS (US) students (9,191). Applying the 31% OOS yield rate, that would be 2,849 accepted/enrolled.

If we think the aforementioned post that said there were 8,000 EA offers extended in December and the total # of applications this year remains constant vs last year (65K) and we assume an even distribution of in-state and OOS students received offers (big “if”…I read elsewhere that first wave of EA skews to high stats in-state applicants, legacy + recruited athletes - who knows if true), then they’re halfway done extending offers going into February.

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@projectmgr… So like 50% offers given? Thought I heard that somewhere… Lol…

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@Knowsstuff - did you state that already earlier? My apologies…it’s hard to keep track of all of these threads, so if you gave that # out earlier, I missed it. My bad.

If nothing else - I found the in-state vs OOS yield rate info helpful.

Thanks again for your insights on this - greatly appreciated!

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Just joking around… I just made a quick estimate. Yes the alamac is the holy grail of information and useful at that.

I just wonder why people actually care. It doesn’t affect anything to the one person. Like you can’t really estimate your chances of being accepted. To many factors to take into account. @projectmgr.

The next decision you hear from Michigan will be the key one. Good luck.

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@Knowsstuff - You are 100% correct. Statistics are great, you just can’t apply them to a sample of one!

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@ckd022. Yep. Trust me I was there two years ago trying to figure all this out having my son being accepted OOS. All the numbers /figures really don’t amount to anything if your not accepted. It’s great saying out of xxxx% I was accepted /deferred /wait listed. It’s all just rationalization. Trust me I did it… Been there, done that… Lol.