US News 2008 Rankings- Predictions

<p>"since actually, many schools with high PA scores are somewhat easier to get into"</p>

<p>"Look at Chicago, JHU, and Berkeley (4.6-4.7 scores) - all have higher acceptance rates and lower average SAT's for admits than Dartmouth, Brown, Penn, and Duke"</p>

<p>Quick.... now prove that these schools are easier to get into (except maybe Berkeley). Higher acceptance rates and lower avg SATs don't really mean easier to get into.</p>

<p>I'll just assume that a school which has admits that have higher average SATs, higher class ranks in high school, and face more competition from more applicants = harder to get in.</p>

<p>"I'll just assume that a school which has admits that have higher average SATs, higher class ranks in high school, and face more competition from more applicants = harder to get in"</p>

<p>Then what about the rumor of Wash U rejecting/waitlisting 'over-qualified' candidates? If what you say about SAT scores is true, then shouldn't those with higher scores expect to be admitted and not rejected? Wouldn't yield manipulation like this ultimately disprove higher SAT scores always equals better chance at gaining admissions, and by extension easier to get into? </p>

<p>The fallacy with using SAT scores to determine how selective a school is is that it assumes that student A with higher scores will ALWAYS will be accepted over student B with lower ones. Unless it can be proven that this happens, then I don't see how such statements can be made.</p>

<p>Interesting to note that I was just trying to disprove the opposite point - that schools with higher PA scores are harder to get in. I think I successfully did that. kk, you can also use other things that correlative with strong academic performance, such as NMS, to see if that matches up with the SAT scores.</p>

<p>
[quote]
And again, PA has nothing to do with the quality of the students...It has to do with the assessment of the education at the schools.

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Actually, PA has more to do with an assessment of research prowess at a university (which is why powerhouse public research unis are rated highly and Ivies like Brown and Dartmouth not so much).</p>

<p>"kk, you can also use other things that correlative with strong academic performance, such as NMS, to see if that matches up with the SAT scores."</p>

<p>I don't disagree with this. All I'm saying is that it's nearly impossible to decipher which schools are 'easier to get into' than others. The very fact that schools have preference over which students they admit would seem to throw out the argument that higher SAT scores equals harder to get into. The fact is that it varies from person to person and program to program.</p>

<p>My prediction? The school's with the higher PAs will see their applications continue to soar, and their selectivity, consequently, will keep on growing. Watch for Chicago, Hopkins, and Cornell to climb, in terms of their selectivity, over the next several years. Of course, this is only my educated guess.</p>

<p>Chicago and Hopkins have had the same PA score since around 1990, I think most schools have hit equilibrium.</p>

<p>Actually, the opposite has happened - in particular, with regard to the publics with high PA scores.</p>

<p>quote from thethoughtprocess:</p>

<p>"confidentialcoll,</p>

<ul>
<li>The Peer Assessment score is regarding academics, not lacrosse players, so I don't see why PA score should be hurt. If its PA score does decrease, then it speaks more poorly regarding the PA score than anything else.</li>
<li>Durham is the same as it always has been.</li>
<li>Duke's class of 2010 had a higher average SAT score and class rank than previous year (so selectivity category will increase). The number of applicants decreased by 1%, but Class of 2010 acceptance rate stayed almost exactly the same as previous year.</li>
<li>Alumni giving increased, increasing this category.</li>
<li>Number of faculty increased (increasing the faculty:student ratio).</li>
</ul>

<p>So I think Duke, instead of falling, will either stay the same or go up."</p>

<p>ok one by one</p>

<p>1) the PA score is pretty subjective, so many things can affect it, regardless, i see the PA score of a place like columbia going up, because they just had two nobel prize winners in one year
2)class of 2010 stats are hardly better if not worse than 2009s for duke, here compare the two:</p>

<p><a href="http://www.admissions.duke.edu/jump/applying/who_2010profile.asp%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.admissions.duke.edu/jump/applying/who_2010profile.asp&lt;/a>
<a href="http://www.admissions.duke.edu/jump/applying/who_2009profile.asp%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.admissions.duke.edu/jump/applying/who_2009profile.asp&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>things to note: acceptance rate barely improves, sat scores decline, yeild declines. Also the yield decline would magnify the sat score decline, because duke posts the sat scores of the accepted pool, not the enrolling pool which usnews uses. so a lower yield would probably mean a greater difference between average enrolling and accepted SAT scores. Relative to colleges that it's competing with, stagnation would hurt, a decline must really hurt</p>

<p>3) durham might be the same, but NYC is definitely shining, and dartmouth's acceptance rate dropped considerably which should have positive repercussions on the overall class stats</p>

<p>4) where do you get the alumni giving data? has it increased relative to other colleges? columbia received a half of a billion donation from a single donor this year.</p>

<p>5)as for student teacher ratio, you might be right, but how important is it?</p>

<p>Duke's got a few things going for it (although perhaps not even when compared to it's competitors), and some clear indications of decline. I do concede that currently the overall score gap is wide and might only be tightened, instead of wiped out altogether.</p>

<p>"Look at Chicago, JHU, and Berkeley (4.6-4.7 scores) - all have higher acceptance rates and lower average SAT's for admits than Dartmouth, Brown, Penn, and Duke (which have 4.4-4.5 PA scores). Just reaffirming that PA score means less and less as time passes."</p>

<p>Raw data from USNews:
Penn 1340-1520
Duke University 1360-1540
University of Chicago 1350-1530<br>
Dartmouth College 1350-1550<br>
Brown:1330-1540
JHU:1290-1500<br>
Berkley:1220-1450</p>

<p>Anyone want to explain to me how numbers going in is certifiable proof of strength of student coming out? As a parent, I read the above numbers and see that this cluster of schools are pretty equal. I also know that it doesn't tell me everything I need to know. I'll check PA and grad/business school numbers and then I'll take a peek at recent enough alumni to help round out the picture. The PA I'll respect because I know for a fact my child will need grad school...it helps to figure out what schools are respected by academia.</p>

<p>What exactly am I doing wrong?</p>

<p>confidentialcoll</p>

<p>-The SAT scores for Class of 2010 increase, not decrease as compared to Class of 2009. The Class of 2010 SAT scores are available on collegeboard.com, and they are indeed higher than the previous year. </p>

<p>-Durham is the same, NYC is shining, but what does that have to do with Duke? I didn't realize city quality was in the ranking. </p>

<p>-Alumni giving data I know of because I go to Duke and read that even in the wake of the lacrosse thing alumni giving increased more than the previous year. See:</p>

<p>"The University received a record-setting $341.9 million in charitable gifts between July 1, 2005 and June 30, 2006...
"The fact that alumni giving set records last year speaks volumes," John Burness, senior vice president for public affairs and government relations said. "</p>

<ul>
<li>Duke's yield increased for the Class of 2011 (Duke overenrolled) and is again the most selective class in Duke's history. And, even in the wake of the lacrosse scandal (the worst in any top school's history) applications of 2011 spots only declined by 1%. Expected to be back up to where it was last year next year.</li>
</ul>

<p><a href="http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2007/06/admissions.html%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2007/06/admissions.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>So, other than SAT scores (better), alumni giving ( better), applicants (down 1%), acceptance rate (better), and faculty:student ratio (better) why is Duke declining?</p>

<p>Ramses...You are doing nothing wrong...absolutely nothing. Don't be nervous. I know that the process seems daunting, but in my experience as a parent, your child, with your input, will wind up at the best place for himelf. In terms of PA, keep it in mind as you help your child choose. Help him decide if he belongs at a school with a higher, rather than lower PA. Of course, you already know that I am a strong proponent of PA, trusting the academics to tell me through the point system, what their general consensus is concerning the overall quality of education at the particular schools. I would simply prefer to trust those who are charged with making this assessment, than less informed people who believe they know. I value the professional opinion, because it is clearly more informed than the non-professional opinion. Keep on doing what you're doing. It will all work out. Most of all, relax.</p>

<p>thethoughtprocess:</p>

<ul>
<li><p>collegeboard doesn't have the previous year's SAT scores so I have no way of comparing, on duke's own website the accepted pool for 2010 had lower middle 50%s than the accepted class of 2009s, the data used in these rankings will be for the class of 2010, so your 2011 enrollment figures dont count (unless they affect PA)</p></li>
<li><p>the college town is a huge factor in the present and future of the college, it is an indirect one, but it affects the quality of both the students and faculty that a university attracts, my 'nyc is shining' was in relation to columbia, columbia was greatly hurt by crime in nyc 10-20 years ago and now it's being helped by the general state of well-being in the city, it's attracting top notch professors and many more applicants each year. same is true for Upenn, the areas around campus are improving (becoming safer, more aesthetic) and from 2009 to 2010 they had a massive improvement in admissions. it's all relative, duke might be improving in absolute terms, but if it's pace of improvement is slower than competitors, then it would be in decline. they're rankings afterall.</p></li>
</ul>

<p>-so the same could be true of alumni giving, i dont have specific data on the other places, but i'm sure they would have gotten substantial donations also, columbia is on a huge fund raising and expansion campaign, so i wouldn't be surprized if they received substantial donations.</p>

<p>it's all relative, practically every top college touts record setting years annually, and who knows, they might all be getting better. but a ranking is a ranking, and on the usnews metrics, relative to other colleges, duke isn't forging forward, far from it.</p>

<p>What a joke some of the previous elitist opinions are. Just to say my piece, and not to intrude. I go to a top school, and was just admitted to Oxford next year. there are some good points, without question. But I think that giving people the chance to feel they've improved is worth knowing any number, be it in the 10s or 1000s. Provided anyone gives credence to US News anyway. Plus, one would be able to to tell others, knowledgeably, that they improved. Who needs to even mention a number? Whatever happened to pride in any form?</p>

<p>And before people ask me why I then don't attend such a school, I'll tell you the truth, which is the fact I got a very good grant package where I'm at. That's all, cut and dry, and which is probably why Ox may not be in the cards anyway. Just had to weigh in on this from where I'm sitting. I have more respect for the "lower ranked" schools and students anyway. I point to the general neuroses of the upper tier hopefuls on CC as an example. Something tells me the respectable others are a lot more chill, happier, and full of spirit.</p>

<p>confidentialcoll, </p>

<p>It seems that even though I'm showing you every Duke measure is increasing, you are assuming that other schools are increasing even more. I don't know why.</p>

<p>Btw, Class of 2010 accepted stats:
Arts and Sciences:1370 - 1560 --> median 1465
Engineering: 1440 - 1570 ---> median 1505
Class of 2009:
Arts and Sciences: 1380-1550 ---> median 1465
Engineering: 1430- 1570 ---> median 1500</p>

<p>Where is the decrease between Class of 2009 and Class of 2010? It increases slightly for Class of 2010. </p>

<p>" relative to other colleges, duke isn't forging forward,"</p>

<p>Regarding your assumptions that every other school is increasing more:
If you'd like, you can check on Collegeboard.com for Class of 2010 data, but Penn's average SAT scores do decrease between 2009 and 2010. Brown and Dartmouth had no increase while Duke did.</p>

<p>Regarding faculty, I doubt any college is pursuing an expansion of professors as fast as Duke. But again, I'd like to see some hard data before making any assumptions (unlike you). View the increasing strength of Duke's research facilities here: <a href="http://mup.asu.edu/research2006.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://mup.asu.edu/research2006.pdf&lt;/a> And compare that to previous years. Regarding alumni data, Duke had a record setting year in terms of alumni contributions, as I said earlier. </p>

<p>Also, regarding NYC's rise and Durham's sucking... Duke is near the Research Triangle, one of the fastest growing regions. NYC is awesome and I plan on living here for many years to come (I've lived here the past two summers) but its not getting any better. The area around Duke sucks, but its always sucked and isn't getting worse (only way to go is up). Kids don't come to Duke because of Durham btw.</p>

<p>Also, the number of National Merit Scholars that chose to attend Duke increased relative to Dartmouth, Columbia, Brown, and Penn between the class of 2009 and 2010 (the year the lacrosse scandal hit). I'm not sure if that illustrates that Duke is "far" from moving forward.</p>

<p>Gabriellaah, thank you, I wasn't terribly concerned having gone through the nail biting process for son 1 this last go round. My question was a bit rhetorical as well as an honest question as I'm preparing son 2 for the process.</p>

<p>Most parents I believe use the rankings, the guidebooks and the PA in much the same manner as we did. As a guide. I can't think of anyone who believes they should use selectivity as the number 1 indicator of school quality. I can't think of anyone who so slavishly is devoted to the rankings that the sat median range off by a few points signals for them that one student body is stronger than another.</p>

<p>In real life I have never met anyone who didn't think JHU, Chicago and Berkeley was as good as Dartmouth, Brown, Penn, and Duke.</p>

<p>thethoughtprocess:</p>

<p>factor in the writing section, it counts for 2010, and so usnews 2008:</p>

<p>2009:
Arts & Sciences Engineering
Critical Reading 690-770 690-770
SAT Math 690-780 740-800
SAT Writing 680-780 680-770</p>

<p>2010:
Arts & Sciences Engineering
Critical Reading 680-770 690-770
SAT Math 690-790 750-800
SAT Writing 670-760 680-760</p>

<p>as for your research study, columbia went from 24-6-1 over three reports, princeton went from 81-4-25, yes quite dependable i'm sure. if you believe this, it actually favors columbia.</p>

<p>as for alumni giving, columbia had larger donations and probably a record setting year also. penn's endowment is also consistently increasing by a high percentage ayearly.</p>

<p>durham might be the same, but nyc isn't improving? check out the graph: </p>

<p><a href="http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9302881%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.economist.com/world/na/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9302881&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>and it isnt just crime, public transportation is set for improvement, and bloomberg proposes a much greener manhattan, either way there is a time lag between change in college town and affect on college. so, given that nyc has improved a lot over the last decade and even the last 5 years, the colleges should be gaining about now. </p>

<p>and does usnews even consider the number of national merit scholars? seems like quite a narrow statistic.</p>

<p>confidential coll, US News didn't use the regular SAT Writing for the Class of 2009's ranking - Duke posted SAT 2 scores for Class of 2009 which were scaled differently. Which is why I ignore them. Either way, this is the first year they are used and the SAT 2 Writing scores are higher than some of the peer schools. But did I mention some of Duke's peer schools had decreasing SAT scores between '09 and '10?</p>

<p>With the research study, I was pointing out that Duke's ranking has increased a great deal over the past 5 years. Between 2001 and 2006 it improved quite a bit. What I was trying to illustrate was that relative to Dartmouth, Brown, and Penn, Duke's position on attracting research dollars has improved. </p>

<p>Also, So you are just assuming Columbia and Penn had a record breaking year in alumni contributions? Why is that? Is there any source? </p>

<p>Btw, I currently live in Manhattan and love the city. But not everyone wants to spend college in NYC, though I have no problem interning here during the summer like most people from other top schools. NYC getting better might increase the number of apps to Columbia, but thats it. Also keep in mind that Columbia isn't the only school we are comparing Duke to - what about Hanover and Philadelphia? Or even Pal Alto? In terms of population growth and local economy growth, the Research Triangle area which Duke is in is growing faster than NYC, though still smaller to begin with. </p>

<p>Either way, the only "decline" Duke had compared to every other school its ranked near is that its total number of apps declined by 1%. Acceptance rate for Class of 2010 stayed the same or got slightly better, SATs better, alumni contributions better, faculty:student ratio better.</p>

<p>Do you really know if Columbia, Penn, and Dartmouth have all gotten better in all of these categories?</p>

<p>
[quote]
Also, So you are just assuming Columbia and Penn had a record breaking year in alumni contributions? Why is that? Is there any source?

[/quote]
</p>

<p>Why yes, there is.</p>

<p>The nation’s top ten fundraising universities and dollars received in 2006 are:<br>
1. Stanford University ($911.16 million)
2. Harvard University ($594.94 million)
3. Yale University ($433.46 million)
4. University of Pennsylvania ($409.49 million)
5. Cornell University ($406.23 million)
6. University of Southern California ($405.75 million)
7. Johns Hopkins University ($377.34 million)
8. Columbia University ($377.28 million)
9. Duke University ($332.03 million)
10. University of Wisconsin-Madison ($325.94 million) </p>

<p>source: <a href="http://www.cae.org/content/pdf/VSE.2006.Press.Release.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.cae.org/content/pdf/VSE.2006.Press.Release.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>