<p>The "Wash U 2017 accepted students" facebook group has 950 kids in it as of right now... I would assume that at least 450 of the 500 ED admits are in the group, leaving ~500 kids who were accepted RD and <em>know</em> they are attending. I know there are a lot of people who still have to decide, but I would assume a large of those who will end up at Wash U through RD have already decided to attend. I would assume that, accounting for those who joined the group because it was only one of their options and won't actually end up committing to the school at the end of April, there would be at most 300-400 more kids. Also accounting for the kids who just don't have facebook, we can call it a conservative 500. That makes approximately 1450 kids who would go by the end of April. Of course, this is 200% speculation and my approximations could be completely off. But if that were true, they would take about 150-200 kids off the waitlist, correct? And honestly, I think that it would be more like 300 who would attend. Do people think this is realistic, or that I'm completely off base? I understand that the number of students in a facebook group isn't a very good basis for deciding this, but I think that it can at least be an indicator.</p>
<p>Sorry, you are completely off base. WashU knows what their yield has been for RD accepted applicants. That is why they accept approximately 3,300 RD applicants (30% yield). In the past few years WashU has not taken anyone off of the wait list. It wouldn’t make sense for that to go from zero to hundreds. I believe 3-4 years ago they took 10-20 from the waitlist.</p>