What are my chances of getting into SUMAC and Canada/USA Math Camp?

Hi, I’m really interested in applying SUMAC and Canada/USA Math Camp. I heard they are pretty hard to get into so I’m wondering what my chances are of getting in. I’m in Grade 10 in British Columbia but I’m taking Higher level IB Math 11 and expecting a 93-95%. I’ve done the COMC last year and got into the CMO. Our school team also won our province’s mathcounts (Math Challengers BC) twice. Done the contests from Waterloo though I don’t really pay much attention to those. Does any alumni have any estimate of the acceptance rate at either program because I really want to go there.