What are my chances of getting into UC Berkeley? Plus extra questions!

Hi, I am a junior in high school (Class of 2019) and I plan on applying to Berkeley Fall 2018. Let me get the basics out of the way:

*=weighted class
(1st semester grade, second semester grade)

FRESHMAN:
play production: A+,A+
*English honors: A-,C-
Swim: A+, A
Health: A
Freshman Seminar: A+
*Math 1 Honors: A, B
Business: A+, B
Theater: A+, A+
Physics: A+, A
Taxes: A+

SOPHMORE:
*English H: A-, A-
Swim: A, A
*AP Bio: C, B
Social Dialogues: B, A
*AP Word History: C, B-
*Math 2/3 Honors: B-, A-
Taxes: A

JUNIOR: (only have official fall grade)
*American History(taken at local city college): B-
*AP Language: A
Swim: A
*AP Environmental Science: A-
Social Dialogues: A (not taking it spring semester)
*Math 3/Pre-calc Honors: B
*AP Government: F

CURRENT GPA:
weighted: 3.9459
unweighted: 3.5135

I have not taken the SAT, (Im taking it March 10), but on the practice one we took (though it didn’t include the essay) I got a 1200. 600 in math and 600 in English. I am currently enrolled in a 12 hour SAT practice course where I hope to raise my SAT by 150 with lots of hard work. I am studying so I can get a 1350, hopefully.

So I obviously failed AP Government this previous Junior Fall Semester, but I am enrolled in the college equivalent at my local city college. I plan on getting at least a B-. I know I can get all A’s except for maybe Math, where I know I’d get a B- t least. I also am taking Spanish 101 and 102 over the summer (I know I will get A’s because I am fluent and the classes are easy. This will also not only give me my 2 required Spanish to be able to apply to 4-year colleges, but it will give me 4 years because it will be at my local city college.)

My extra curricular activities include:
*President of the feminist club this year
*vice president of the Future Business Leaders of America, after being enrolled for 2 years
*Marketing president of my business class
*interviewed for Montecito Bank & Trust for Santa Barbara International Film Festival Events and local saving seminars at elementary schools
*learned and prepared taxes for free (VITA-Volunteer Income Tax Assistance) for college students, singles mothers, and any other low-income people
*student of the month freshman year
*Part of Jane Goodall’s National Youth Leadership Council and Roots and Shoots
*Coordinated the viewing of “I Am Malala” for over 100 students at school
*Part of the Du Ubuntu campaign team where we sell bracelets and give the profits to moms and their children who make the bracelets who are affected by HIV and AIDS
*others maybe that I am not remembering

My questions are as follows:

*I know I will get at the very very least a C- for the government class, so will the F be factored into my school GPA?
*Will the 150 SAT point increase my chances dramatically?
*What are my chances of getting in to UC Berkeley?
*If those chances are sort of low, what can I do to improve those chances?
*What are my chances for other schools like Cal Poly SLO, US Santa Barbara, and NYU?

Appreciate it in advance!

If you repeat the exact same course, your repeat grade will be factored into your UC GPA, but you still have to report your F grade on the application.

The UC’s have their own GPA calculation which uses only 10-11th grades in the a-g course requirements, so the first thing you need to do is calculate your UC GPA Unweighted, Capped Weighted and Fully Weighted at the end of Junior year.

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Having already 1 C grade Sophomore year puts at a disadvantage at UCB since applicants with 4.0+ UC GPA’s are rejected.

UC’s tend to be very GPA focused but for a school like UCB you need a competitive overall package. HIgh GPA. High test scores, interesting EC’s and essays. An SAT of 1200 is not going to make it. Think around the average of around 1400+.

Also intended major can play a significant part for your chances. The more competitive the major, the more competitive stats are needed.

Just to give you some statistical data for admit rates based the Capped Weighted UC GPA and SAT ranges for each UC:: see below:

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.40-3.79:

UCB: 1.8%
UCLA: 2.2%
UCSD: 7.2%
UCSB: 10.1%
UCI: 11.1%
UCD: 16.6%
UCSC: 43.8%
UCR: 63.3%
UCM: 88.7%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19:

UCB: 12.6%
UCLA: 11.7%
UCSD: 38.7%
UCSB: 53.6%
UCD: 56.5%
UCI: 52.1%
UCSC: 75.7%
UCR: 90.1%
UCM: 96.1%

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 4.20 or above:

UCB: 42.7%
UCLA: 47.2%
UCSD: 84.2%
UCSB: 82.0%
UCD: 90.3%
UCI: 94.1%
UCSC: 92.7%
UCR: 97.5
UCM: 98.1%

25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1280-1490

UCLA: 1280-1500
UCSD: 1250-1470
UCSB: 1210- 1450
UCD: 1190-1430
UCI: 1190-1420
UCSC: 1170-1380
UCR: 1090-1310
UCM: 1020-1230

SLO uses 9-11th grades so you can plug in the same data into the UC GPA calculator but include 9th grades for the SLO GPA. SLO’s GPA is capped at 8 semesters of honors points taken 10-11th grades.

Here is the SLO Freshman Profile for 2017 by College. You can compare your stats to the admitted students to get an idea of your chances:

https://admissions.calpoly.edu/prospective/profile.html

Based on what you have posted all schools like like a Reach at the moment. You need to concentrate on getting good grades and cut back on your EC’s.

Thank you a bunch! Usually when asking people that I know or even school counselors, they make it seem as if I have a decent chance with my current grades and if I continue to do what I do. But I really needed your honesty! It was very helpful. Ive been focusing on my grades for this year so thanks!

Keep in mind UC-Berkeley is not the be all, end all college! There are many good / excellent colleges out there. Why the fascination with Berkeley? I think you might be better suited at a less competitive college. That is not meant to be mean; that is true for most students.

You want to be successful wherever you wind up. While you can certainly apply to Cal, I don’t think it would be the best fit. There are people with 4.0’s uw here who’s egos are going through a major bruising right now. You will have to get used to doing much fewer EC’s in order to keep your grades up. As for the other schools you listed:

Cal Poly - depends upon your major. Chances used to be better declaring ED - guess they did away with that a few years ago. D got in as Economics major (lol - just pulled that out of hat). Friend of D applied as engineering RD and did NOT get in - she’s graduating from UCLA this year, so they may have thought the chances of her actually accepting to Cal Poly were pretty low and didn’t bother to let her in.

UC Santa Barbara - really moving up in terms of well-regarded UC’s (I heard they had a record number of applicants this year).

NYU - don’t know, other than it’s going to be super, super expensive for you.

Yes, definitely cut back on some of your EC’s - you don’t want your application dismissed right off the bat because your GPA isn’t where it needs to be.