What are my chances...will estimate your chances as well...

I’m an asian male at a competitive school district from New Jersey and here are my stats:

UW GPA: 3.65
W GPA: 4.21 (top 20% in class)
ACT: 34 w/ 8 on writing (idk what happened, i’m not a bad writer)

SAT 2s:
Math 2: 800
Physics: 750+ (taking it next week)
USH: 750+ (taking it next week)

Senior Year Course load (w/ anticipated first semester grade):
-AP Physics C (A)
-AP Calculus BC (A)
-AP Lit (A/B)
-AP US Gov (A)
-AP Comparative Gov (A)
-Politics and Legal Experiences (A)
-Advanced Concert Band (A)

Junior Year:
-Precalc Honors (A)
-LA 3 Honors (B)
-Physics Honors (B)
-APUSH (B)
-Symphonic Band (A)
-AP French (A)

Sophmore Year:
-Adv. Algebra 2 Honors (B)
-French 3 Honors (A)
-LA 2 CP (A)
-Chemistry Honors (B)
-Concert Band (A)
-American Studies 1 Honors (A)

Freshmen Year:
-Geometry Honors (A)
-Biology Honors (B)
-French 2 (A)
-Concert Band (A)
-LA 1 CP (B)

Recommendation Letters:

  1. From APUSH and AS 1 teacher: About my drastic improvement in writing
  2. From Band teacher: How within one year of learning French Horn, I became one of the best in a school that has a competitive music program

ECs:
Varsity Football (Senior Year)
JV Track and Field (4 years)
French Horn (2 years), Flute (7 years), Piano (4 years), Percussion (2 years)
Red Cross Club (2 years, couldn’t continue due to athletics)

Major: Economics

Schools of Interest : NYU Stern (top choice), UMich, Carnegie Mellon, Williams, Cornell

I really want my first semester grades and standardized test scores to prove that my gpa is not indicative of my potential success in college…

(I wish this post didn’t make me seem as nerdy and desperate as it does, but I feel that the objective opinion of others are important)

AP scores from junior year?

GPA is the first cut for many such schools, which doesn’t bode well for you. 3.65 is close to athletic recruit territory, and unfortunately you don’t appear to have all that much in terms of ECs. That makes it tough to gain admission as an Asian male from NJ. That’s the bad news.

On the other hand, your test scores aren’t going to disqualify you barring a disaster on the SAT II, and your chances are 0% if you don’t apply. Perhaps your essays and/or recommendations will make the difference. Just be aware that your odds aren’t great for most of these schools, as you’ve chosen some of the nation’s most competitive colleges, long shots for virtually every applicant.

I think you have a pretty decent shot at schools like NYU Stern and UMich! If you want a percentage, I would say approximately 50% (even higher if you’ve applied ED to Stern or EA to UMich). CMU and Cornell would definitely be tougher, with CMU being a more selective private school and Cornell being an ivy, but I wouldn’t lose hope either. I’m not too sure about Williams, but I know that it may be just as hard if not harder to get into a top notch liberal arts school than a prestigious private university. Keep up your grades this semester (that may make or break the deal) and show colleges that you are capable of being that straight A student.