What are my chances?

Want to study Mechanical Engineering.
—Applying to UIUC, UW-Madison, UM-Ann Arbor, Michigan St, Minnesota Twin Cities, Purdue, and Penn St.—
-Senior this year. Taking 4 APs including Calc BC and Physics 1, including PLTW Engineering Class.
-Cumulative 4.21 GPA (W), 3.83 (UW).

-Basketball and Tennis all 4 years of HS (Captain in both awarded senior year).
-National Honors Society 11 and 12.
-Part-Time Worker at grocery store durin 11 and 12 (including during COVID)

I feel like I have good course rigor (10 APs) and my personal essay showcases my personal growth well.

Not submitting SAT.

These schools are getting much more competitive for engineering and CS. Hard to know how things will go. I think you will be competitive. Be sure you are applying to your own state’s flagship and safeties.